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The J. M. Smucker Company Message Board

believerinbalancesheettrends 40 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Dec 5, 2006
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  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends 20 hours ago Flag

    I sure hope they pay down debt.
    If they use the money to buy another company, I sure hope it is an American company like SAFM PPC or CALM which are all very well managed, relatively low P/E stocks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 31, 2015 8:57 AM Flag

    Numbers posted are quarter-to-quarter relationships, positive flows toward next quarter.

    Separately :

    $157,000,000 cash
    $157000000 / 39738000 = $3.95 cash per share.

    True stock price adjusted for cash = 21 - 3.95 = 17.05
    True next year's p/e ratio adjusted = 17.05 / 1.25 = 13.64
    Target price remains $30 to $36 with $34 mean.
    What were those p/e ratios for CYBR, FEYE, PANW?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 31, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    India is a democracy with massive potential.
    India is a capitalist country with primary experience in capitalism.
    Ever travel to India?
    I worked there for over four years and, once you understand it, you realize you have wide freedoms in running your business.
    Nobody is going to interfere in small business there unless it produces unsafe food.
    They love the entertainment business.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 30, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    Book value improved again this quarter.

    This stock becomes more valuable every quarter with continuous increase in net stockholder equity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Serious question about Rabo

    by islb3 Jul 30, 2015 7:40 AM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 30, 2015 7:59 AM Flag

    What is your calculation?

    I calculated the bottom line impact of the question combined with new contracts in Singapore, Japan, Belgium etc.

    VDSI management is extremely clever by managing expectations to the low side and then clobbering estimates. I do suspect 2016 will see VDSI far better than the low expectations (as always).

    I buy on irrational pessimism. I sell on irrational exuberance. Guess what we have now?

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 28, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    If you can read a balance sheet, compare quarter to quarter numbers and you'll see what I mean( Receivables, accounts payable, etc) Next quarter should also be excellent both on the top and bottom line.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 27, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    They eliminated debt during the quarter, even after paying for the new investments.

    "We ended the quarter with no debt and a cash position of $49.2 million." Bodes well for next quarter. Related, accounts payable dropped significantly in most recent quarter (reported June 25th.

    Commodity prices for materials should benefit Winnebago, Inc. more in future quarters as lower cost basis, new agreements / supply chain replace old ones.
    Copper prices down about 50% from prior year.
    Steel prices down about 30%.
    Aluminum prices down significantly (according to major aluminum manufacturers such as Alcoa)
    Energy related costs such as plastics components as well as fuels are down significantly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 25, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    Consecutive earnings surprises: +88.90% +180.00% +40.00% +61.90%
    One more full trading day to earnings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 24, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    South America appears far too corrupt to invest in based on history, particularly the "disappearing" Brazilian stocks that wither into never never land of nightmare financials.

    Brazilian companies have this habit of splitting stocks until they go to penny stock prices and then disappear. Could be related to the oddball financials combined with trying to make them even more obscure by doing splits. TNE disappeared from a $25 stock to two OIBR and OIBR-C, both of which are about to disappear into never never land of Brazilian financial jungles.

    Brazil needs to clean up its act. So does Chile. Their equivalent to SEC is likely complicit.
    Even the banks appear to have strange balance sheets and messed up financial reporting.

    I'd wait for Brazil to stabilize. Same with Chile. Even fertilizer companies like SQM are prone to corruption. I have now predicted SQM will disappear.... a long time, pre-corruption, quality producer of lithum and an excellent product suite of agriculture nutrients.

    It could be decades before these countries eliminate corruption and fraud to the extent they attain Asian respectability. Even India is far more transparent.

  • Reply to

    Why I'm out today.

    by y2k7trillionover Jul 15, 2015 2:42 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 16, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    This is not the time to create a REIT.
    When interest rates are due to rise is exactly when REIT can go kaput, especially retail.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 9, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    Now it's a buy....... or rather strong buy based on fundamentals.
    Technically a buy as well.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 7, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    Read Worldpoultry, latest issue, article on bird flu out of control in multiple countries outside USA.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 7, 2015 8:06 AM Flag

    Looking at all numbers on the balance sheet coming out of the prior quarter bodes well for a positive earnings surprise this quarter.
    Only 25 trading days to earnings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HES take over $85 easy

    by surfandski Jun 23, 2015 3:04 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 2, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    I wouldn't be surprised by a takeover on this one now their balance sheet has been turned pristine.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 2, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Nearly 80 percent of WU business is with people who have no internet access.
    WU has kiosk and small shops in virtually every country worldwide. Xoom does not.
    Most important: Who do you trust with your money?
    Answer: Western Union 99%.

    All this hoopla about other competitors are by analysts who have never been to a WU shop to receive or transfer money.
    Finally, WU is the ONLY company is this money business that has "seen it all" and knows how to avoid all the scams and crooks in the business. The competition is like 2 year old fools.

    I know I would never trust any other to send / receive money in India, Peru, Tanzania, Myanmar, Thailand, Philippines, Bulgaria................. or any other of 200 countries where WU is well established, trusted, utilized with confidence.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 2, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    NO OTHER SECURITY COMPANY COMES CLOSE -- 17 trading days to earnings!
    Profit Margin (ttm): 19.14%, Operating Margin (ttm): 22.07%
    Return on Assets (ttm): 13.23%, Return on Equity (ttm): 21.66%
    Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): 288.40%
    Total Debt (mrq): 0.00, Total cash per share: 3.77
    31.21 - 3.77 = 27.44
    Next year's p/e ratio: 22.86 (adjusted for 0.00 debt and cash / share)

    Results keep getting better AND company increased guidance for NEXT quarter.
    Next quarterly is only 21 trading days away
    VDSI next year's p/e is 23, best in security sector.
    Consistently clobbers estimates.

    Results 1st quarter, 03-28-2015:
    Revenue increased 68%
    Net income up 287%
    Operating income up 313%
    Cash $149.1 million compared to $137.4 previous quarter
    Debt $0.00, no bank borrowings at either March 31, 2015 or December 31, 2014.

    Previous quarter: Revenue up 44%, operating income up 218%, Cash up 38%

    Guidance coming out of next quarter:
    Entering into quarterly report for next quarter guidance increased.
    Two major tech savvy governments chose to VDSI during quarter, Belgium and Singapore
    Major new push into health care industry and integrators.
    One massive international bank chose VDSI during quarter, Mizuho Bank, Japan
    Consistently clobbers estimates

    Other / institutional activity:
    150 institutions increased by +19,727,085 shares (or held existing positions)
    081 institutions decreased by -5,326,395 share holdings
    Net all institutions added +14,400,690 shares

    Corporations are finally beginning to take security threats seriously enough to begin utilizing strongest security solutions VDSI delivers.

    VDSI CEO biographical notes:
    Co-founder of Secured Services Inc
    Chief Executive Officer of AOS-Hagenuk B.V.
    President of Itel Corporation's Computer System Division
    Proprietary Systems Corporation and IBM
    Vice Chairman of Midwest Council at The Technology Association of America
    Member of Executive Committee of Victory Park Capital Advisors, LLC.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 2, 2015 1:18 AM Flag

    Book value growth is excellent. Pays nice dividend.
    Business area footprint in high income area where much of that income is very stable.
    Not much competition in small banks or thrifts.
    Perfect balance sheet. Takeover potential for an area bank expansion.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 1, 2015 9:50 PM Flag

    This company remains massively under priced.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 1, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    Options traders are usually right.
    This stock is going up on earnings and guidance catalysts.
    Guidance will be bumped up on new contracts in Japan, Singapore, Belgium with major banks and governments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 30, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Of course I am not surprised at a short not facing up to reality.
    After all, they consistently beat. And shorts consistently say they won't.
    See you at $50. We love shorts and will give y'all a strong hug and squeeze!

111.69+0.93(+0.84%)Jul 31 4:02 PMEDT