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Agrium Inc. Message Board

believerinbalancesheettrends 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 11:41 AM Member since: Dec 5, 2006
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  • Reply to

    HES take over $85 easy

    by surfandski Jun 23, 2015 3:04 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 2, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    I wouldn't be surprised by a takeover on this one now their balance sheet has been turned pristine.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 2, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Nearly 80 percent of WU business is with people who have no internet access.
    WU has kiosk and small shops in virtually every country worldwide. Xoom does not.
    Most important: Who do you trust with your money?
    Answer: Western Union 99%.

    All this hoopla about other competitors are by analysts who have never been to a WU shop to receive or transfer money.
    Finally, WU is the ONLY company is this money business that has "seen it all" and knows how to avoid all the scams and crooks in the business. The competition is like 2 year old fools.

    I know I would never trust any other to send / receive money in India, Peru, Tanzania, Myanmar, Thailand, Philippines, Bulgaria................. or any other of 200 countries where WU is well established, trusted, utilized with confidence.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 2, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    NO OTHER SECURITY COMPANY COMES CLOSE -- 17 trading days to earnings!
    Profit Margin (ttm): 19.14%, Operating Margin (ttm): 22.07%
    Return on Assets (ttm): 13.23%, Return on Equity (ttm): 21.66%
    Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): 288.40%
    Total Debt (mrq): 0.00, Total cash per share: 3.77
    31.21 - 3.77 = 27.44
    Next year's p/e ratio: 22.86 (adjusted for 0.00 debt and cash / share)

    Results keep getting better AND company increased guidance for NEXT quarter.
    Next quarterly is only 21 trading days away
    VDSI next year's p/e is 23, best in security sector.
    Consistently clobbers estimates.

    Results 1st quarter, 03-28-2015:
    Revenue increased 68%
    Net income up 287%
    Operating income up 313%
    Cash $149.1 million compared to $137.4 previous quarter
    Debt $0.00, no bank borrowings at either March 31, 2015 or December 31, 2014.

    Previous quarter: Revenue up 44%, operating income up 218%, Cash up 38%

    Guidance coming out of next quarter:
    Entering into quarterly report for next quarter guidance increased.
    Two major tech savvy governments chose to VDSI during quarter, Belgium and Singapore
    Major new push into health care industry and integrators.
    One massive international bank chose VDSI during quarter, Mizuho Bank, Japan
    Consistently clobbers estimates

    Other / institutional activity:
    150 institutions increased by +19,727,085 shares (or held existing positions)
    081 institutions decreased by -5,326,395 share holdings
    Net all institutions added +14,400,690 shares

    Corporations are finally beginning to take security threats seriously enough to begin utilizing strongest security solutions VDSI delivers.

    VDSI CEO biographical notes:
    Co-founder of Secured Services Inc
    Chief Executive Officer of AOS-Hagenuk B.V.
    President of Itel Corporation's Computer System Division
    Proprietary Systems Corporation and IBM
    Vice Chairman of Midwest Council at The Technology Association of America
    Member of Executive Committee of Victory Park Capital Advisors, LLC.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 2, 2015 1:18 AM Flag

    Book value growth is excellent. Pays nice dividend.
    Business area footprint in high income area where much of that income is very stable.
    Not much competition in small banks or thrifts.
    Perfect balance sheet. Takeover potential for an area bank expansion.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 1, 2015 9:50 PM Flag

    This company remains massively under priced.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jul 1, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    Options traders are usually right.
    This stock is going up on earnings and guidance catalysts.
    Guidance will be bumped up on new contracts in Japan, Singapore, Belgium with major banks and governments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 30, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Of course I am not surprised at a short not facing up to reality.
    After all, they consistently beat. And shorts consistently say they won't.
    See you at $50. We love shorts and will give y'all a strong hug and squeeze!

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 29, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    21 trading days to go and counting down.
    Fortunately the selling pressure caused by the Greek tragedy is over.
    Now we can repeat the last round and run up and beyond new highs on earnings.

    VDSI clobbers estimates consecutively and consistently.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 26, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    TMO needs to buffer up its cash situation by more borrowing.
    They better do this immediately while rates are low.
    Note: See balance sheet trends.
    Note: See cash flow trends.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 19, 2015 11:19 AM Flag

    CAG JAN 2013 $28 to now 42.55 = $14.55 gain.
    All dividends since 01/2013 tot is = $2.50 gain.

    17.05 / 28) * 100 = 61%
    2.5 years since Ralcorp takeover
    Annualized 61 / 2.5 = 24.4% gain.

    24.4% gain per year is astounding for a relatively safe agriculture company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 19, 2015 9:39 AM Flag

    Total change is $15.50 including dividends (clarification).

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 19, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    (((41 - 28) + 2.50) / 28) * 100 = 55%
    Current price: $41
    Price 01/2013 $28
    Price change $13.00 since Ralcorp takeover
    2.50 Dividends since Ralcorp takeover.
    Total change: 13.50
    Annualized change:
    Annualized 55 / 2.5 = 22% which is excellent for an agriculture stock.
    Nearly double historical average for all stocks.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 19, 2015 9:01 AM Flag

    This company is extremely well managed from a financial perspective with debt going down following previous acquisitions.

    But, still a way to go with $19.70 debt per share and about 37 cents / share cash.
    I do not see what Jana Partners sees in this undervaluation conclusion.
    Perhaps a bit undervalued considering excellent financial management.
    Still too much intangible assets and goodwill on the balance sheet.
    Dividend is about right because it is consuming their cash flow.

  • Reply to

    Impact of egg price increase minimal

    by y2k7trillionover Jun 6, 2015 12:32 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 19, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    Egg prices appear to be stabilized with Europeans selling processed eggs to USA for the first time in decades.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 16, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    FDA Clinical trials search results : 447 studies found for: Merck | Open Studies
    These 447 include only trials for which candidate / patients are being recruited for participation in trials.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 12, 2015 3:45 PM Flag

    Beats estimates and should do so many quarters and years to come.
    CELG has projected out to $12 / share earnings, probably based on the 229 active clinical trials.

    Revlimid patent expires in 2024 EU, 2027 in USA.

    Abraxane patent expires in 2022 in EU, 2026 in USA

    Pomalyst patent expires in 2023 in EU, 2024 in USA

    Otezla patent expires in 2028 in EU, 2024 in USA
    (expected to become Celgene's 4th blockbuster drug as it ramps up production.

    Now trading on a next year p/e ratio of 18 which makes it a strong buy at this level.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Can someone explain this to me

    by hiker200055 Jun 5, 2015 9:14 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 9, 2015 10:49 PM Flag

    Not a clue. The questions are:
    1. Who will pay $1000 per month for the injection, going weekly to the doc to be injected?
    2. What portion of the rights / revenue from this drug belongs to whom / SNY? REGN?
    3. What is the population of patients that cannot control LDL with traditional statin drugs?
    4. What is the population of patients that cannot tolerate statin drugs?

  • Reply to


    by t_l_middle Jun 2, 2015 1:23 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 3, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    Next year's p/e ratio is 18.25. $120 is a fair price for CELG without adjusting for the fact that it beats estimates by 20% consistently. Could add another 20% for that.

  • Reply to

    Jeffries note

    by soflaturtle May 28, 2015 11:59 AM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 3, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    I think LCI is by far the best bargain in this space. Virtually no debt, trading on a rolling chart at $56 with about $6 / share in cash, a PEG ratio of .79, low p/e ratio and growth continues by acquisitions of small pharmaceuticals. LCI 5 year growth expected to be around 17 percent but has a great track record of beating estimates consistently.

  • Reply to

    one downgrade and it tanks on volume?

    by timeforacrash May 29, 2015 1:36 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends May 29, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    My speculation:
    Suspect Russia is dumping potash on the world market with heavy focus on China & India.
    Suspect both India & China are buying to their maximum stockpile needs while the price is lowest.

    Didn't India previously buy from Potash?

106.84-2.52(-2.30%)Jul 2 4:00 PMEDT