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Agrium Inc. Message Board

believerinbalancesheettrends 375 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2016 12:16 PM Member since: Dec 5, 2006
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  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 21, 2016 12:16 PM Flag

    They are going to clobber estimates for two primary reasons:
    1. Advertisers are switching to venues that have known user profiles.
    2. Advertisers are switching to mobile.
    3. Facebook delivers both at an accelerating rate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 21, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    Days remaining to earnings date: 28

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Jun 21, 2016 1:31 AM Flag

    Earnings after market close July 27. Target 142.80.
    Beats estimates, most recent 4 quarters with consistently increasing surprises:


  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends May 31, 2016 11:19 AM Flag

    It is indeed fortunate this company is being taken over.
    TMO will benefit from synergies but paid too much.

  • Reply to

    Egg prices down

    by jaquarmagnet Apr 6, 2016 12:29 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Apr 21, 2016 11:41 PM Flag

    Good analogy. Cage free is expensive relative to floor for these reasons:
    1. Disease control is far easier in cages where sanitation is excellent.
    2. Movement around more may appear to be better but movement means energy consumption which translates to higher feed costs.
    3. Cages keep most wild birds out, thus reducing diseases like avian influenza.
    4. Cage based systems have automatic feeder and watering controls far more precise and protected from fecal matter whereas floor based systems cannot avoid feces in the feeders and watering troughs.
    5. Eggs are cleaner and far less exposed to chicken manure /feces.
    6. Egg collection is automatic in caged systems where the eggs are laid by the hens and it rolls down the slight incline to the belt which continuously moves the eggs to the processing area (candling, boxing, separation of whites /yolks.
    7. Caged systems result in far fewer wasted eggs due to contamination and breakage.
    9. Egg production requires stringent control of air temperature, air movement (fresh air), lighting (length of daylight impacts productivity), which are all easier to control to ensure correct amounts in caged systems.
    10. Far less cannibalism in caged systems than on floor systems. (they eat each other).
    11. Snakes, rats, mice, other vermin are far more difficult to control in floor systems than caged.

    Above are just a few differences.

    As to range systems, a nightmare from the disease control perspective.
    Egg production is far less in range systems. Nutrient control is virtually impossible on range systems.

    Note: Chicken farmer, retired.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Feb 27, 2016 7:09 PM Flag

    Exactly. I computed $125.08 but maybe I did something wrong.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Feb 13, 2016 10:31 AM Flag

    Not only no but ???? no!
    You were in the military.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by larry.zito Dec 23, 2015 5:33 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Dec 23, 2015 6:23 PM Flag

    If you are a long term investor it might be wise to proceed apace with management continuing to be conservative in this business. Cash is king in this business. Cash is king in an economy with increasing interest rates. Cash is king is why CALM has outperformed 95% of all stocks over the past 10 years, not including dividend. This is agriculture. Agriculture is not as predictable as are most industries. It is much more dependent on weather (corn, soy, etc prices). In my view: No buyback. Keep the generous dividend policy and keep the rest of the cash.
    Cannot dispute the fact that CALM stock has risen from $1.21 per share to current price since listing 19 years ago this month. Add dividends to that and you have one of the best stocks you could possibly own.

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Dec 23, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    The dividend is payable February 11, 2016, to shareholders of record on January 27, 2016.
    (approximately $0.751 per share, depending on certain factors described in report).

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Nov 23, 2015 6:58 AM Flag

    It is the fiduciary duty of the management to do what is in the best interest of shareholders, including share price appreciation. When a company beats the likes of Facebook and Disney, that company is doing its very best to meet its fiduciary duty.

    Thank you very much for both dividend and stock price appreciation, both of which is superior to virtually all other companies on the stock market today. Furthermore your cash preservation provides the necessary cushion to enable maneuvering through any downturns.

    Other notes:
    Egg King's Boost From Restaurant Champ

    The largest U.S. producer and distributor of fresh shelled eggs, Cal-Maine Foods is also a major supplier of cage-free eggs.
    In September, McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), the world's largest restaurant chain, said that it will phase out the use of eggs from hens that are caged. It's also begun selling breakfast items, including the popular Egg McMuffin sandwich, all day long.

    These moves add up to a more robust market for Cal-Maine.
    Last quarter, Cal-Maine's EPS soared 418% vs. the same quarter a year ago to $2.95 per share.

    --Read More At Investor's Business Daily

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Nov 8, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    See full FDA write up. Here is a clip:

    "The U.S. Food and Drug Administration today approved Genvoya (a fixed-dose combination tablet containing elvitegravir, cobicistat, emtricitabine, and tenofovir alafenamide) as a complete regimen for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in adults and pediatric patients 12 years of age and older.

    The CDC estimates that 1.2 million persons ages 13 years and older are living with HIV infection, and that more than another 150,000 persons in this age range have HIV but are unaware of their infection. Over the past decade, the number of people living with HIV has increased, while the annual number of new HIV infections has remained relatively stable.

    “Today’s approval of a fixed dose combination containing a new form of tenofovir provides another effective, once daily complete regimen for patients with HIV-1 infection,” said Edward Cox, M.D., director of the Office of Antimicrobial Products in the FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research."

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Nov 6, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    159 Open Studies found for: Gilead Sciences registered on FDA clinicaltrials.
    Modify this search | How to Use Search Results

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Rebuilding the hen flock

    by netlosstoo Nov 5, 2015 7:07 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Nov 6, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    Thanks much netlosstoo for the number crunching analysis.

    Once there is confidence in the net layer population, there is one more population related factor and that is egg size. I noticed in my local Korean grocery stores small eggs and double yolked eggs showing up, still at premium prices (especially high priced double yolked eggs). Small and double yolked eggs come from young pullets/layers as you know. This indicates we are on the road to recovery. It takes a couple of months for egg sizes to reach normal large size.

    Side note: CALM left the previous quarter with $355,853,000 cash which is good for an interest rate rising climate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what is wrong with this stock?

    by greeneggsguy Oct 29, 2015 3:06 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Nov 5, 2015 8:39 AM Flag

    Here is my analysis:

    Compare CALM, up 4594% from 1.21 to 55.59 to the S&P or Dow or NASDAQ over the past 19 years.
    And that does not include the dividends!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by kerncob999 Nov 2, 2015 11:57 AM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Nov 4, 2015 7:41 AM Flag

    They still have 8 hours to earnings.

  • Reply to

    Net interest expense $370 to $385 million

    by getintoh20 Oct 6, 2015 9:03 AM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Oct 6, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    Thanks much for the updates this morning genintoh20.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Oct 3, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    If you make widgets and you sell them to your customer(s) but change to selling the widgets yourself to the customer's customers(s), you are nearly certain you will destroy your business.

  • Reply to

    $3.49 for a dozen eggs?

    by mpham1974 Sep 29, 2015 4:03 PM
    believerinbalancesheettrends believerinbalancesheettrends Oct 1, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    Wal-Mart, Costco, Safeway, Kroger........... all the majors are expensive.
    Eggs are only $2.39 at the German discount store Aldi Stores.

    It takes only 3 egg whites to provide you with all the essential amino acids you need.
    What else provides you with all your daily essential proteins you need for only 88 cents?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Sep 4, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    Subtract the $3 cash per share from the current stock price and the stock is actually trading at $12.50 adjusted for cash and debt. VDSI needs to do something to prevent a takeover.

    Plenty of catalysts for a rise in this stock:
    1. Fundamentals.
    2. Clobbers estimates consistently.
    3. Iran nuclear deal will make the 3rd party $15m thing irrelevant.
    4. Superior security appliances, software as evidenced by adoption by major Asian banks.
    5. Takeover. This company has unique and powerful security products desired by competitors.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • believerinbalancesheettrends by believerinbalancesheettrends Sep 2, 2015 2:13 PM Flag

    1. Surplus expected this year indicates long term surplus.
    2. Iowa corn storage silos in short supply meaning some corn needs to go at very low prices.
    3. Ethanol processing plummeting meaning even more supply likely to come on market in several countries. Notes: Less corn produced in Europe. Much on corn for ethanol is produced on marginal land so the impact of less ethanol production on corn prices could be minor.
    4. Less corn consumption because 45 million fewer birds (turkeys, broilers / roasters, hens / pullets) were being fed during the past several months.
    Final counts of the soybean crop will be coming within a month (they literally count beans in the fields). Soybean is a protein source for poultry feed on traditional commercial farms.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

90.42+1.04(+1.16%)Jun 30 4:00 PMEDT