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Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

bellard 56 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2014 9:52 AM Member since: Sep 10, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Even Joan

    by heymee2 Aug 15, 2014 9:37 AM
    bellard bellard Aug 15, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    I just read thru the transcript. Wow - that was a really bad CC. I will not get back into EXXI at any price. I had the same thoughts the analysts had - were did all the production go? My view is still this EPL purchase was to cover up EXXI huge production and EPS problems. Also there is no way they can reduce their new huge debt load - No free cash flow in 2015, if they sell assets their production drops..EXXI is in real trouble....

    EXXI debt servicing will kill it IMHO. One hurricane, or drop in the price of oil, or bad drilling results and this firm is gone....

  • bellard bellard Aug 14, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    Yeah - but this provides a bit more detail - is this close to where SFY assets are?

  • Vine Oil & Gas LP ("Vine" or the "Company"), a recently formed exploration and production company headquartered in Dallas, Texas and Blackstone Energy Partners, an affiliate of Blackstone (NYSE:BX), today announced a definitive agreement to acquire the Haynesville assets of SWEPI LP and Shell Gulf of Mexico Inc., affiliates of Royal Dutch Shell plc ("Shell"), for $1.2 billion. The assets comprise over 107,000 net acres in North Louisiana in the core of the Haynesville Shale natural gas shale basin.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on Press Release

    by greenytheterp Aug 13, 2014 6:43 PM
    bellard bellard Aug 14, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    You are quite the perma-bull. I think the EPL acquisition was a coverup of poor past decisions(prior acquisitions) . The new debt level - jump to 3.7B, and now the debt to equity ratio is alarming. What is the new share count, and NAV per share without the goodwill?

    I still like GOM assets and will wait and see if there is value around $17 a share...

  • Reply to

    CSIQ beat up 10% pre MKT

    by corolla1974 Aug 13, 2014 9:17 AM
    bellard bellard Aug 13, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    CSIQ had a great Q, and yes this bodes well for TSL results as well. Both firms have similar models - CSIQ has more power ownership with yieldco coming earlier than TSL so it will be more highly valued.

    Both firms sell into Japan, and the US were the ASP is higher. Yesterday SOL CC, they said the China ASP was .54 cents I believe - pathetic! But CSIQ beat there margin estimate, and this points to TSL beating it margin estimate of 15% - TSL could have blowout earnings as well....we will have to wait to see..

  • bellard bellard Aug 12, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    Yo History;
    What I am getting at is that the government enforced monopolies - the utilities - have built out the huge coal gen infrastructure - this past monopoly economics has and will continue to help BTU and other coal producers. Just saying its a hard to understand coal bulls complaining about monopoly economics..

    I can't bid on the use of the land in the PRB - in fact no one but the coal firms that already have the infrastructure can bid - single firm bids? again government enforced monopoly economics..

  • bellard bellard Aug 11, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    "The US is sitting on a 200-year supply"
    but the question is how much of that coal is economically extractable and deliverable to power plants. NG is currently way cheap in the eastern US where as Marcellus gas is selling below $2.5 mmbtu. Also the 120 years of NG reserves are economically extractable...

  • bellard bellard Aug 11, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    Your joking right - complaining about monopolies? There would be no coal industry except for the monopolies - the government enforced utilities - and the government enforced single bid use to extract coal from public lands - the PRB..

    There are no free market components to the coal industry...

  • Reply to

    Back of envelope NOI projection for ACAS

    by donedealer Aug 9, 2014 9:10 PM
    bellard bellard Aug 10, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    you could also look at GAAP EPS and annualized - 90% of $.76 * 4 = about $ 2.75 a share in divies per year. At a 10% divy rate the stock price would be $27.

    The reason this little arithmetic exercise is important - it shows that ACAS currently derives most of its income and long term value creation in non cash flow ways - in appreciation of solid assets. Another way to look at it would be an asset base of real estate - 10% rental property and 90% raw land - how would you value such a portfolio?

  • Reply to

    Stock has gone nowhere in one year+

    by simple_mind99 Aug 6, 2014 5:17 PM
    bellard bellard Aug 8, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    Agreed - this reorg is a bit sluggish. I have already trimmed my ACAS holdings by 50% with the great appreciation over the past 3 years. Still trades at too much of a discount to NAV IMHO, and the next Q should see increased NOI, which would be 2 noi increases in a row...

  • Reply to

    book value discount

    by mm5002003 Aug 7, 2014 1:36 PM
    bellard bellard Aug 7, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    I disagree - the tax asset is as good as cash on the BS. Also ECAS is still carried at a discount so add that in on top so I have NAV around $20.5

  • Reply to

    Russian coal

    by historyrepeats45 Aug 6, 2014 11:05 PM
    bellard bellard Aug 7, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    Agreed - also why not open export of LNG to the eurozone, so the eurozone can stop importing energy from Russia - besides energy what else does Russia produce?

  • bellard by bellard Aug 7, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Well - pretty weak CC IMHO. Malon is a terrible speaker. I think ACAS is sending out a bad message here - they went on and on about how complex this spin-off would be - and then even went further on how complex ACAS is as a business....The street HATES complexity - they should know this?

    Anyway - I like the assets of ACAS, but not very happy with Malon - he should be replaced IMHO. The feeling I get is that if the spin-off is approved - this transaction may not even happen until late in 2015 - so we have to wait another full year. No buybacks, and no divies. Now if NAV keeps climbing and NOI keeps climbing the SP should follow.

    Look at NRF - another holding of mine - NRF is just as complex as ACAS - look at the transactions they have done over the last 12 months - ACAS could do much better.....

  • Reply to

    Where things stand for RAS

    by davisfoulger Aug 5, 2014 2:48 PM
    bellard bellard Aug 6, 2014 6:42 PM Flag

    "AFFO would have come in at least 29" yes that would be a nice number. Thanks for the research and DD on this equity. My buying trigger was RAS falling below $7.5 - I will keep accumulating near that point and wait for next Q divy, and results....

  • bellard bellard Aug 6, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    Looks like an insurance policy. but why the $12 strike? Interesting....

  • Reply to

    Where things stand for RAS

    by davisfoulger Aug 5, 2014 2:48 PM
    bellard bellard Aug 6, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Good recap. I have cycled in and out of RAS. I just started to cycle in again at 7.43. I agree with some of your positive points, but there are negatives as well. You did not mention AFFO, or FFO? CAD looks weak to me.

    Last year RAS was predicting over 1.00 a share of cash flow, but now tracking lower? - probably because of more shares outstanding. Also GAAP loss continues to be larger than my expectations - GAAP can be #$%$ - but it still is a measure to consider along with CAD, FFO, Divies, etc..

    Another concern is the timing of the next share offering?

    Anyway, keep up the good analysis, and please ignore the trolls out there bashing your posts or data!

  • Reply to

    Australia x2

    by stocksleuthcom Aug 2, 2014 12:51 PM
    bellard bellard Aug 2, 2014 5:34 PM Flag

    HMM, you seemed to edit the story - why. Here is the except:

    Among those most affected could by Trina Solar, said to be a large supplier of modules, and partners such as First Solar, which also holds 4.6 million preference shares in the company, according to ASIC files.

    So FLSR had an equity stake, TSL is a supplier.

  • bellard bellard Aug 1, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    Yeah - I like that aspect of SPF as well. Firms like KBH still have a lot of focus on first time buyers. SPF's locations are the hot spots + 12% more active communities is a big plus going forward. Pretty soon SPF will be trading at NAV - way to cheap IMHO...

  • Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.14 per share, $0.01 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.13; revenues rose 35.1% year/year to $592.5 mln vs the $555.1 mln consensus.

    income of $91.8 million, up 80%
    183 average active selling communities, up 12%
    Net new orders of 1,524, up 1%; Dollar value of net new orders up 10%

    New orders being up - even just 1% is big - the other HB's are all showing new order being down. Also the margin is now up:
    Gross margin from home sales of 26.6%, compared to 23.7%
    Operating margin from home sales of $89.7 million, or 15.2%, compared to $48.2 million, or 11.1%

    SPF is a huge buy here....

  • bellard bellard Jul 29, 2014 6:11 PM Flag

    "mgmt fee increased from 29M to 30M sequentially .."

    I went back and ACAS showed fee income of only 13m in Q1? What am I missing?

7.18-0.20(-2.71%)Aug 22 4:03 PMEDT

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