Actually - I have done a PRB economic study - please do some more research - its the bowl like PRB formations that are the problem for BTU, CLD, etc...They are nibbling on the edges of the bowls now, but once that is gone they need to remove the overburden - and that is costly. Most recent scientific studies show the PRB has about 5 more years left of cheap coal.....but no new Rail infrastructure to move to market - and again PRB coal can't compete with Marcellus natural gas at about 1.25 mmbtu...
Long live king gas!
Just went thru the COG earning statement -
"Total cash unit costs (including financing) of $1.22 per Mcfe, a 10 percent improvement"
wow - thats low - how can BTU compete?
Subsequent to the end of the first quarter, the Company closed an amendment to its revolving credit facility that increased the borrowing base to $3.4 billion; increased the lenders' commitments to $1.8 billion; extended the maturity date three additional years; and reduced the drawn and undrawn pricing based on current leverage levels
Banks just throwing cheap money at the NG producers!
For BTU bagholders - read COG's earnings - it must be nice to actually see earnings!
This is from yesterday EIA ng weekly update:
"Prices at most Marcellus locations declined this week. At Tennessee's Zone 4 Marcellus trading location, prices dropped from $1.43/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.14/MMBtu yesterday. On the Transco Leidy Line, prices fell from $1.49/MMBtu last Wednesday to a weekly low of $1.12/MMBtu on Tuesday, recovering to $1.38/MMBtu yesterday. At the Dominion South trading point, which serves customers in portions of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, West Virginia, and Virginia, prices began the report week at $1.50/MMBtu, fell through Friday to $1.35/MMBtu"
This is BTU's comp - not HH pricing. Again BTU's only chance of not being restructured - BK - is for all NG prices to move up sharply - over 5 mcf - and stay there. So if that is your investment theses - own a NG stock !
Agreed - I have 2 SFY bonds bought at 40% - effective yield about 35%? I will get back into RAS after the next Q, if all looks cleansed after the Taberna fiasco....
Different area than SFY - but acreage is acreage? SFY valuation?
How does this value REXX?
Yes, the oil directed drilling has fallen sharply - we will see associated gas start to fall next month. Drilling for NG is falling in the Marcellus as well - the lag will be longer, since many wells have still not been connected to production pipelines, but by Aug/Sept we will see NG production declines as well...
Well said - this is what I want to know as well - keep us informed if you get an ACAS response. The more I think about this ACE3 timing and asset sales - the more it really annoys me - this is not the way you treat shareholders...
That why I have been buying he 2022 bonds - much deeper discount - My basis is around 40. To ME - 2017 or 2022 are the same thing - WAY in the future. IMHO we will know all we need to know about SFY future by the end of 2015...NG pricing, cost factors, asset dispositions, JV's etc...
Tesla turns in his grave: Is it finally time to switch from AC to DC? - read this as well to get educated:
AC power transmission losses are greater than DC losses. That is hardly an industry secret. In fact the reason you can wirelessly charge a cell phone is because any changing current will radiate away some energy. You just need to coil the wire up to gather some of that energy in a convenient place. At the Three Gorges Dam in China, high voltage DC transmission lines were chosen to bring the power to the people for a variety of reasons. Many power companies are now starting to rethink the decisions that made AC transmission the obvious choice in the previous era.
Its called HVDC - In 1956, ABB built the first high voltage DC (HVDC) transmission line in the West .
"Nearly all of the above factors would seem to favor DC over AC transmission":
There are different trade-offs for AC versus DC power transmission. Voltage can readily be taken up to about 765,000 volts (765 kV) for an AC powerline (this is the current maximum AC voltage in the US) but beyond that, power dissipation through dielectric loss becomes significant. (Dielectric losses are caused when dipoles in matter align with a changing local electric field. As the polar structures turn to follow the field, the movement causes local heating. This is the basis of microwave ovens. The dielectric loss during transmission is equal to the total heat that is generated in materials around the powerlines due to induced motions of electric dipoles.) At high voltage, non-resistive power dissipation via dielectric losses (for AC only) and/or through corona discharge (for both AC and DC) becomes severe. Voltage for DC overhead powerlines can be taken up to higher voltage than the maximum practical AC voltage; at present the worldwide maximum is ±800 kV for HVDC lines. Note that the way that voltage is reported for AC vs. DC powerlines is different; a ±800 kV DC powerline has 1600 kV conductor to conductor (800 kV conductor to ground), whereas AC voltage refers to the conductor to conductor root mean square, or “rms” voltage; roughly speaking AC rms voltage is comparable to the line-to-line voltage in DC in terms of transmission capacity. In effect, HVDC voltage can go about twice as high as HVAC voltage, which explains most of the advantage of overhead HVDC lines compared to overhead HVAC lines.
Wire diameter is limited for AC transmission lines due to the “skin effect” that prevents an AC current from penetrating to the center of a large wire, whereas a DC line can be arbitrarily thick.
Do some research on the newer DC technologies - less line loss than AC.....
I do feel sad about you losing so much money on BTU - I did try to warn you...
Maybe compressed air? Also maybe the War of Currents went the wrong way - DC would have favored distributed generation, not centralized:
George Westinghouse and Thomas Edison became adversaries due to Edison's promotion of direct current (DC) for electric power distribution against alternating current (AC) advocated by several European companies and Westinghouse Electric based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, which had acquired many of the patents by Nikola Tesla.
He says that reducing the number of coal plants will save lives and that job growth in solar, wind and natural gas can offset coal-related jobs.
"Coal's days are numbered. It is an outdated technology," Bloomberg said during a rally at the Sierra Club's offices in Washington. "It's holding back our economy and it's hurting our health."
Yes - the fact we are generating electricity using the technology from 80 years ago should be embarrassing for every America IMHO.