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ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Message Board

bellard 37 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 31, 2014 1:35 PM Member since: Sep 10, 2004
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  • Reply to

    No More buybacks

    by bellard Mar 31, 2014 9:35 AM
    bellard bellard Mar 31, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    I do not agree - the timing is right on this IMHO. The average cost since the buybacks began in way lower than today SP. Now ACAS can reach NAV more quickly by a reorg. Also at this point in time, I would rather see new cash flowing investments that are accretive to NAV and NOI....

  • This is good news IMHO. ACAS has seen it's NAV declining for 9 months now - time to move the focus away from buybacks, and into finding new investments, or structures for increasing NAV and IRR.....

  • Reply to

    ACAS's Mirion holding has Problems??

    by psnovo Mar 26, 2014 12:52 PM
    bellard bellard Mar 27, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    No public news on Mirion. But maybe they have some inside info....I have been thinking Mirion is having issues with its nuke biz - and ACAS has had to take hits to its port firm valuation last Q which was a negative IMHO...

    On a positive note looks like AGNC latest buyback was small - about %?....

  • Reply to

    NG article published today

    by brian.clark7 Mar 26, 2014 4:28 PM
    bellard bellard Mar 27, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    I agree with the authors statement. The wells in the Bakken can be very remote - off-grid so flaring is used. Now they are putting in the gathering systems to sell the NG instead of flaring - but the net impact on NG pricing will be minimal IMHO. NG prices will be moving higher...

  • Reply to

    NG article published today

    by brian.clark7 Mar 26, 2014 4:28 PM
    bellard bellard Mar 26, 2014 7:47 PM Flag

    Correct - many of these new wells will see 50% reduction after 18 months.....

  • Reply to

    Sierra Club's Plan to Strangle Coal

    by t_e_n_k_a_y Mar 26, 2014 4:29 PM
    bellard bellard Mar 26, 2014 7:46 PM Flag

    "Sierra Club may even overlook the environmental consequences of fracking"

    Not the case. I am working on fracking issues in CO - and the Sierra club is working with oil and gas industry to set tough air rules in CO. They have Anadarko, Noble, and Encana in their camp(probably because these firms have already invested in the new requirements) - these new rules target fugitive methane - the industry calls it lost and unaccounted for NG - or L&U. Starting in 2015 in CO - E&P and mid stream firms will need to have real-time fug CH4 monitoring - and LDAR(leak detection and repair) for the well head, compressor stations and condensation tanks, processing plants, etc...

    The Sierra club is not a fan on oil fracking - but at least they appear willing to work with industry. I think they would work with the coal industry if it tried cleaner technologies like CTL, etc....

  • Reply to

    The CEO sold shares -- so what??

    by wobbleman47 Mar 23, 2014 11:50 AM
    bellard bellard Mar 26, 2014 6:30 PM Flag

    Whats the deal on ORC - look to cheap - reasons? So small maybe? How does the biz model compare to CYS?

    Thanks

  • Reply to

    Checkmate for cheap unconventional gas

    by coalbull9 Mar 23, 2014 2:21 PM
    bellard bellard Mar 25, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    "So you are saying that " "waste" NG for free - and lots of it" from oil wells will raise NG supplies even if its unprofitable to drill for gas at current prices?"

    Yes - except for the Marcellus, they are really only drilling for the oil - but whenever you drill for oil you also get dry gas and NGL. They strip out the wet gas(NGL) at the well head, compressor stations, condensation tanks, and the gas processing plants since the liquids can be sold at a good price.

    The key for NG supplies and the economics for coal is the price of oil - If oil falls below a certain threshold - I am just guestimating here - $80, 70? - Then the incentive to drill for oil is dramatically reduced - and to target just NG drilling - you need NG prices to be well above $5 mmbtu, probably $6...

  • Reply to

    Checkmate for cheap unconventional gas

    by coalbull9 Mar 23, 2014 2:21 PM
    bellard bellard Mar 24, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    Incorrect in the USA. 80% of the fracking in the US is for OIL, not ng - you get the "waste" NG for free - and lots of it. Many states are now forcing the operators to use this NG, instead of venting or flaring. As long as oil is priced high(above $80), Then NG supplies will continue to rise regardless to the price of NG...

    That being said we should see NG prices rise due to more demand vectors, and coal prices will rise as well due to very few low cost mines left in the US(PRB, IL)....

  • bellard bellard Mar 18, 2014 12:14 PM Flag

    Agreed - FSLR could buy SOL for cash, or TSL for cash + equity......

  • Reply to

    AGNC and MTGE Buybacks 2

    by icon0 Feb 11, 2014 9:27 AM
    bellard bellard Feb 11, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    Agreed - I have been warning about this since Dec., and some permabulls on this board disagreed with me - oh well. I have since trimmed my ACAS position and can re-deploy that capital elsewhere. We see now that ACAS has significant interest rate risk similar to the MREITS themselves. The fact that the ACAS's private firms can't get higher multiples of EBITDA - even with these multiples moving much higher for publicly traded firms is another issue moving forward IMHO.

  • Reply to

    ACAS price drop

    by ribi1 Feb 5, 2014 8:59 AM
    bellard bellard Feb 5, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    Could also be concerns with how AGNC results and buybacks will effect ACAS noi, and nav for the upcoming report....

  • Reply to

    Nat gas at 5.60

    by jc18630 Feb 5, 2014 8:28 AM
    bellard bellard Feb 5, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    More a boon to solar - NG in the electric gen markets are day time peaking feedstock, coal is baseload. That said, one would expect short term gas to coal switching up to a point....

    To play higher NG prices - first buy NG equities, then solar, then coal.....

  • Reply to

    War on coal is alive and well

    by stlmn77 Jan 28, 2014 10:04 PM
    bellard bellard Jan 29, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    "The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has conducted a series of studies on the economic accessibility of coal in the major coal producing regions of the country. The studies have typically found that only a small fraction of the coal will be economically accessible at the current price of $10.47/ton. In August 2008, the USGS issued an updated assessment of coal in the Powder River Basin.[7] After considering stripping ratios and production costs, the USGS concluded that at the time of the economic evaluation, only 6 percent of the original resource, or 10.1 billion short tons of coal, was currently economically recoverable"

  • Reply to

    War on coal is alive and well

    by stlmn77 Jan 28, 2014 10:04 PM
    bellard bellard Jan 29, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    The global peak of coal production from existing coalfields is predicted to occur close to the year 2011. … After 2011, the production rates of coal and CO2 decline, reaching 1990 levels by the year 2037, and reaching 50% of the peak value in the year 2047. It is unlikely that future mines will reverse the trend predicted in this BAU scenario. [Emphasis mine.]

    The curve for CO2 emissions from coal looks roughly similar — peaks soon and plunges.

    Just to avoid a frequent misunderstanding: This doesn’t mean the world is going to “run out of coal.” It simply means that most of the easily reachable coal has already been reached. Going forward, supplies will be more difficult to reach, lower in quality, and/or more expensive to transport. The combination of those factors means that new supply won’t be able to keep up with the drop-off in old supply; overall production will peak and decline. As it does, prices will rise sharply.

  • Reply to

    War on coal is alive and well

    by stlmn77 Jan 28, 2014 10:04 PM
    bellard bellard Jan 29, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    Another insightful post - stick with data, and your opinions why BTU is a good investment, and stop the childish behavior and name calling....

  • Reply to

    War on coal is alive and well

    by stlmn77 Jan 28, 2014 10:04 PM
    bellard bellard Jan 29, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    We can agree to disagree steelman. We have more economically extractable NG then economically extractable coal - that is the short answer. It is a bit more complex than this, and I have studied this for years. Google the PRB coal reserves, and how much is left that is "economical" - the EIA does not look at how much is economical.....

  • Reply to

    War on coal is alive and well

    by stlmn77 Jan 28, 2014 10:04 PM
    bellard bellard Jan 29, 2014 8:37 AM Flag

    Stlmn77;
    I listened to the SOTU - again no war on coal was mentioned, or even hinted at. The talking points were pro NG, oil production in the US vs importing oil. again some talk of NG displacing oil as well - again to reduce oil imports...

    More discussion of common sense regulation / controls on all industries - no focus on coal. The long term war on coal is simple resource economics.

  • Reply to

    Blackrock owns 24M shares (8.6%)

    by its_not_my_business_but Jan 28, 2014 12:15 PM
    bellard bellard Jan 28, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    Yes I have thought BLK would be interested in ACAS - Buy all of ACAS, Spin off the pieces that don't fit, and manage the rest....

  • bellard bellard Jan 27, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    In economics there is a study of "externalities", in this case it would be the negative externalities from air and water pollution. So more particulates in the air, causes more people to have asthma, COPD, and other respiratory illnesses. They go and get treatment/help at hospitals causing health care premiums to rise for everyone, causing all US corporation to spend more money on this rather than hiring new workers.

    So yes one would need to calculate this cost and assign it to those businesses that create that external cost...

ARR
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