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Energy XXI (Bermuda) Limited Message Board

bellard 99 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 10, 2014 12:37 PM Member since: Sep 10, 2004
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  • bellard bellard Oct 10, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    I have worked with the NG industry, and the air quality boards on air/pollution reg's. I wanted to see real results - not just status quo or fear mongering. The focus on CO2 is a mistake for the environmental community(which I am one). In the US 50% of the population will not believe made made global warming - so why beat your head against this wall? My idea is to focus on the pollutants that have a some consensus of health related issues such as NOx, SOx, mercury, diesel emissions, etc..

    Both oil/gas and the coal industries have pollution footprints that need to be addressed IMHO.

    Yes All energy stocks are getting creamed - I own a small NG firm and 2 solar equities - I feel your pain. I never wanted to see BTU SP go down - I just thought it would....I think an issue is US and ROW is deflation - in energy the the globe and in the USA - we are producing more energy than is demanded...its that simple.

    For BTU the best case scenario is for more falling oil prices - BTU's cost go down, eventually we will then reduce oil production which means less associated NG being brought to market - higher NG prices. With High enough NG prices - 6-9 mmbtu - Utilities may invest in cleaner coal gen technologies such as CTL, CTG....

  • bellard bellard Oct 10, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    Stone;
    I will have to disagree with CO2 being an issue for coal. The issue for coal is mercury, and the new cross-state emissions rule that settled the litigation between the south eastern states. So based on these newer air rules - utilities decided to decommission numerous older coal plants - the CO2 rules caused no addition closures - the mercury/cross states stuff did all the damage....

    Yes both coal based, and oil fracking, NG infrastructure have under reported the fugitive CH4 issue for years...oil/gas has the highest fugitive CH4 issue, but coal is right up there as well....

  • bellard bellard Oct 10, 2014 8:31 AM Flag

    I did not know that's how solar panels are made - thanks for sharing...Both NG and coal have fugitive CH4 issues - that is all the posted message was getting at.....

  • From Bloomberg. Many do not know that the coal industry is right behind oil and gas for fugitive methane pollution....

  • bellard bellard Oct 8, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    I am positive on SFY due to valuation and large short position. My energy modeling shows much higher NG prices 2015-2020. With new LNG exporting, and many new fertilizer, chemical plants coming on line around SFY infrastructure - all point to solid cash flows 2015 and beyond..

    The current issue is SFY weak BS - and the shorts will stay in the game until SFY further adjusts its capital stack. It could be the only way to get rid of the shorts is with share buybacks - this will take time to repair the BS, or more asset sales....

  • bellard bellard Oct 8, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    the Fasken Joint Venture does look like a good deal for SFY. I do not think the shorts are pushing down the SP anymore - look at all the small cap oil and gas play - all down huge over the last 5 days. The short took the price down below $10, now mass selling small caps + oil + firms with weak balance sheets = continued downward pressure on the price....

  • bellard bellard Oct 4, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    He probably can't buy now - he knows the approximate numbers for q3. He will have to wait till after the earnings are announced....

  • Reply to

    CLF

    by bellard Oct 3, 2014 3:24 PM
    bellard bellard Oct 3, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    Many NG firms like CHK to get HH or NYMEX prices - CHK has a lot of Marcellus gas were prices are now well below $2. Many Oil and gas firms are break-even cash flow at $90-100 a barrel, so now the we are below $90, many will be cash flow negative. Some have lower cost structures...

    Another big fear right now is the the Saudi's will actually increase production to drive prices down below 80 to slow down their new biggest threat - US Shale oil.....

  • bellard by bellard Oct 3, 2014 3:24 PM Flag

    SP falling of a cliff! All energy plays are being hammered, and the short interest on some of these stocks is way too high IMHO.

  • bellard bellard Oct 3, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    I agree with you - they all get the same idea - lets frack for oil! - without doing any modeling on what will happen to future pricing if everyone and there brother drills for oil at the same time!

  • bellard bellard Oct 3, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    Its simple energy extraction economics - same as the coal firms. These oil and gas project take years to develop the infrastructure - roads, permitting, impact studies, pipeline, workers, trucking, rail access, etc....So they borrow money - spend 100's of million in capex for 2 years without getting any product to market - then they are forced to bring to market the oil and gas regardless of pricing - they need to pay debt service, and bills

    They will only stop bring gas to market if the price goes below the marginal cost for moving the product to market - for NG this can be below $1 mmbtu....

  • Reply to

    Still for sale..

    by blankwillie Oct 3, 2014 10:37 AM
    bellard bellard Oct 3, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    Yes there is at least one large owner reducing their position in ACAS over the past few weeks - and without a buyback to help absorb that selling pressure the SP has gone down....

    The Macro factor look good for ACAS - but ACAS is moving more to a rate/spread play so improving economics may not help as much now that ACAS has already sold many of its port companies....

  • bellard bellard Oct 3, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    I hope so - I own a NG small cap stock and its price action is the same as BTU. Relentless selling pressure and shorts manipulating markets is disgusting....But to be a realist - I look and analyze the new data - and its bad for NG and coal stocks. The unbelievable increase in US NG production is off the charts now 7.6% from last year record production.. - go to the EIA weekly NG update and see for your self.

    In the east - NG is sell below $1.7 MMBTU - if we get a warm winter ACI, and BTU BK risk goes up substantially IMHO...

  • Prices in the Marcellus production region remained low compared to most markets. At Tennessee Pipeline's Zone 4 Marcellus trading point, located in northeast Pennsylvania, prices fell from $1.73 on Wednesday to $1.61 on Friday,

  • bellard bellard Oct 2, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    Most NG firms are now invested heavily in oil - 80% of all drilling in the US is for oil - the gas is kinda of a waste by-product. Also lots of NG drilling in the Marcellus - and pricing sucks - 2-2.5 MMBTU? The price of oil is killing these equities.....

  • bellard bellard Oct 2, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Stone;
    No the US economy is OK - but the US is way oversupplied with energy - coal, NG, oil....

    All energy stocks are getting hammered - pricing is soft and looks weak going forward - also a sign of global weakness imho

  • Reply to

    More coal plant retirements - new NG generation

    by bellard Oct 2, 2014 9:18 AM
    bellard bellard Oct 2, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    These are 6 new retirements in my database. Over the past 4 years, many coal plant retirements have been announced, with almost no new coal plant announcements. Now starting in 2015, we will start to see the actual decommissioning of these coal plants, and finally less coal demand. 2014 will be the high point for thermal coal gen IMHO - only downhill from here - BTU, ACI, WLT need to lower production way ahead of this curve and I am not seeing it....

  • The St. Louis-based utility said it plans to shut down six coal-fired generating units in the St. Louis area while adding power plants in unspecified locations that would be fueled by natural gas, wind, sunlight and methane gas released by landfills.

    In general, Ameren Missouri is proposing a greater reduction in carbon-dioxide emissions but at a slower pace than would be prescribed for Missouri under proposed regulations by the federal Environmental Protection Agency.

    "We are committed to accomplishing this transition to cleaner energy in a way that is cost-effective and environmentally responsible while maintaining the reliability our customers expect," Michael Moehn, Ameren Missouri's chairman, president and CEO, said in a written statement.

    Ameren Missouri is the state's largest electricity provider, serving 1.2 million customers.

  • Reply to

    Down 11 out of last 12 days

    by gdfeyy45 Sep 30, 2014 3:56 PM
    bellard bellard Oct 1, 2014 3:02 PM Flag

    NMB;
    Thanks - and thanks for the tax loss explanation. I am trying to figure out what the current Q nav will be....

  • Reply to

    Down 11 out of last 12 days

    by gdfeyy45 Sep 30, 2014 3:56 PM
    bellard bellard Oct 1, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Another concern I have is this complex, long process has to do with trying to preserve that huge and growing tax asset - what if ACAS losses part of this asset - it would lead to a large GAAP loss and decrease in NAV.

    Also will ACAS take a NAV hit with the recently announced ACE III - did ACAS put in the portfolio compaies at a discount?

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