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Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated Message Board

bellbell63 385 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 1999
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  • Reply to

    bellbell63 and bigsee4c

    by i.stock 12 hours ago
    bellbell63 bellbell63 9 hours ago Flag

    Correct - it will go down because of past and present bad mgt, a crushing debt load and a very difficult ore body to mine.

    Honest opinions formed from reports, cc, knowlegde of the industry and presentations are neither unethical nor illegal.

    People here will say what they please and your silly intimidation will be ignored. Who do you think you are - Kim-il un?

    Please give your white horse a rest.

    Your are now on ignore.

  • Reply to

    in 2015 ........

    by jackmaster20 11 hours ago
    bellbell63 bellbell63 9 hours ago Flag

    I would look for any firm that make aluminum parts for aerospace and/or auto on hope that Alcoa will buy them. They already have gobbled up a few I think,

  • Reply to

    Reply to On_kelp_9 on Engaging Cementation

    by bigsee4c Dec 18, 2014 5:20 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 12 hours ago Flag

    In my experience a R/S takes from 30-40% off a stock's value. The reasons are mostly psychological, not financial. Two examples: assuming a 1/40
    - would you rather own a .13 stock that is losing .02/share or a $5.20 stock that is losing .80/share.
    Financially no different but in the first case it feels like they are close to breaking even and in the second case they deep in the hole.
    - some people like to feel they are "players". They can say I own 1,000.000 shares of PAL!!!! With a 1/40 it is only 25,000 shares - doesn't sound nearly as impressive so they lose interest and go somewhere else.

    This reason I would guess they would do cap raise first, then the R/S.

    If the way out is BAM offering to exchange their debt for equity - 170M at .13 would be about 1.3B shares giving them 76% control. They then vote to take it private. Current stockholders will be forced to take maybe .13-.14 and thus be deprived of any possible future success.

    Will that happen? No one knows - but something has to happen. They are running on fumes now.

  • Reply to

    Reply to On_kelp_9 on Engaging Cementation

    by bigsee4c Dec 18, 2014 5:20 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 14 hours ago Flag

    It shows the lack of credibility PAL now has. What on the surface (sorry) looked like a pretty good PR was ignored. Those with money are not buying the PR or the stock. Dollar volume has been under $250,000/day. No one cares.

    Considering the season I fear the ghost of PR's yet to come.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 14 hours ago Flag

    Drill rig is about 10-15 feet high. Drill is in sections like drilling for oil. Do you think they have an 800m piece of pipe? :-) These are high voltage high tower lines and do not interfere with drilling. If you look at scale map of the site you will see PL zone much bigger than the width of a power line. See Fig 2 in

    /media3.marketwire
    D C
    /docs/pdl1016appendix.pdf

    What they did do prevent the PLZ from extending to the soouth west no matter how high the grade because that's where the shaft is.

    Your posts about FX rates etc are too silly tp comment fully on. Whether in USD to :make it easy to read" makes no difference. It is a binding legal loan of (now) $170M USD interest payable in USD )or about $197CAD.

    And BAM deals in USD becasue the are a global firm and most places around the world will deal in USD, not CAD. Maybe they chose USD because they felt the USD would strenghten vs CAD. The same reason my daughter who lives in Totonto has a large 1 yr USD denominated CD in a US bank. While the interest rate is under 1%, when it matures next month and is converted back to CAD she will have made about 9%.

  • Reply to

    The new SWC honcho dumps SWC stock already?

    by boulmichone Dec 18, 2014 5:31 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 18, 2014 11:24 PM Flag

    He is 64 and the 17K is about 7% of his holdings

    Stillwater Mining Co
    Compensation for 2013
    Salary $371,000
    Restricted stock awards $700,603
    All other compensation $11,889
    Non-equity incentive plan compensation $200,000
    Total Compensation $1,283,492
    Options Exercised for 2013
    Number of securities underlying options exercisable 30,000
    Stock Ownership for 2014
    Number of shares owned 251,540

  • Reply to

    BAM loan news

    by skittle12345 Dec 18, 2014 4:32 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 18, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

    Total loan after addons was 170M USD which is now $197M CAD. Yes increased revenue in CAD helps offsets the increased interest in CAD but still looming in the not too distant future (30 months) is the full 197MCAD of principle. So how is that a good deal for PAL? Even at $800 ($928 CAD) per oz it still looks like PAL will show a Q4 loss. Analysts est for full 2015 are -.03/share. So where are they going to find 197M CAD to pay off the principal. If they survive that long and maybe in a little better health BAM will graciously roll the loan over at a bargain 14%. Honestly, I don't think PAL as currently capitalized will exist in 6 months. Current stockholders will get the shaft.

    Close .1301 Dollar volume about 200K as there is no interest from the big guys - whomever they are.

  • Reply to

    Putin to back Ruble with pt/pd reserves?

    by boulmichone Dec 18, 2014 12:28 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 18, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    If they decide to back ruble with PMs then they won't be selling any. But don't think PD/Pt are large enough. Would have to be gold but IMO not likely.

  • Reply to

    Positive points from PAL

    by skittle12345 Dec 17, 2014 6:11 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 18, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    PAL earnings history - annually per share from annual reports

    2005 -1.03
    2006 -.65
    2007 -.51
    2008 -1.94
    2009 -.29
    2010 -.16
    2011 -.40
    2012 -.32
    2013 -.26

    (per share results look "better" since outstanding shares way since 2005)
    Maybe a better measure would be amount of loss in CAD.

    So open pit, Ruby, upper offset , high PD prices etc doesn't seem to matter. They haven't made money in the 9 last years. This year will be number 10.

    And now the crushing BAM debt also.

  • Reply to

    Positive points from PAL

    by skittle12345 Dec 17, 2014 6:11 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 18, 2014 8:42 AM Flag

    I said that:
    " While stronger USD it may increase PAL revenue (in CAD) ....

  • Reply to

    Positive points from PAL

    by skittle12345 Dec 17, 2014 6:11 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 17, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    Add to your negatives. Continued drop in CAD will require another FX writeoff in Q4 report, loan will probably go over $200M CAD. While stronger USD it may increase PAL revenue (in CAD) one of their big expenses is BAM interest payable in USD.

    Now IMO report will be -.02 +/- .01

    Tick toc tick toc .....

  • Reply to

    Positive points from PAL

    by skittle12345 Dec 17, 2014 6:11 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 17, 2014 8:16 PM Flag

    Let's analyze your positive points in an honest dialogue

    -Palladium recovery increasing

    Q3 80.7% Q2 83.6% Q1 84.5%
    So it seems to be going down. PLease don't tell me to only look forward. You made a statement that is refuted by published data. Maybe Q4 will be better but you don't know that yet.

    -Fleet is being replaced
    Unconfirmed. Latest statements were "A strategy for fleet replacement" and "Contemplating fleet replacement" Finance agreement with CAT means nothing unless you know the T&Cs. Like "If you show a profit of xxx, then we will go ahead. No new vehicle as been put in service for quite a while.

    -New mill
    There has been no mention anywhere of a new mill. Current mill can handle 15K TPD. Did you just make that one up? Reference please.

    -Planning on extending LOM
    You can't just "extend the LOM" by drilling results You have to show that you have a plan and funds to do it, and do it at a profit.

    As for the negatives, you are quite correct. I'll just add that PAL cannot do anything about them.
    With regard to near 0 liquidity, what happened to your insight about the clever grand PAL plan to convert PD into receivables and thus have plenty of cash?

    And you have to learn the difference between an impairment write-off and normal depreciation.

    PS -Sorry bigsee4 - hope my other resolutions last longer thAn minus 14 days.

    Closing price .1311

  • Reply to

    What $855 Pd hedge?

    by bigsee4c Dec 17, 2014 12:12 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 17, 2014 7:57 PM Flag

    "I am cleaning up the board"

    Who appointed you "Lord of the Board"?

  • Reply to

    Amount of BAM loan outstanding

    by skittle12345 Dec 17, 2014 6:29 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 17, 2014 7:54 PM Flag

    Well considering that so far they have paid off none of it (all payments so far have been only interest) my answer is none. The maturity date will come will the full amount due. That assumes PAL as we know it today still exists mid-2017.

    As the lawyers say , if you don't like a possible answer don't ask the question.

    Close today .1311

  • Reply to

    why up 7% today?

    by finanza Dec 17, 2014 12:32 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 17, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    That's why miners are not a good proxy for the mineral(s) they mine. Too many other variables affect the stock price. Buying a miner requires much more dd than buying say PALL.

  • Reply to

    What $855 Pd hedge?

    by bigsee4c Dec 17, 2014 12:12 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 17, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    "Thanks for posting on this I was actually going to start a thread about this lie that so many posters seemed to have assumed."
    Just because someone (me included) misinterpreted the cc does not mean we deliberately "lied" Statements like that reduce your credibility to below 0.

  • Reply to

    I'm confused

    by cshjr4 Dec 1, 2014 11:50 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 17, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    Had them before mkt opened at SChwab.

  • Reply to

    Lack of a "street" following -

    by 717mainstreet Dec 16, 2014 8:25 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 16, 2014 11:10 PM Flag

    Close .135 New all time low .121

  • Reply to

    I'm confused

    by cshjr4 Dec 1, 2014 11:50 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 16, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    rEmember you get 1/2 KLX for each BEAV.

  • Reply to

    AISC

    by nettlesm24 Dec 16, 2014 9:31 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 16, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    How about this for a simple estimate of the complete costs per PD oz

    .7x(revenue+loss)/PDoz

    The .7 is to account for (as you mention) that 30% of their revenue (and loss) comes from non-Pd.

    Using Q3 numbers:
    .7( 46.4M +18.8M)/36400 = =$1253 CDN per Pd ounce. (about $950USD).

    This will come down as volume rises in Q4 and fixed costs stay fixed. But until we see full Q4 numbers this is what it is. Will their $850 USD hedge be enough to show profit in Q4? IMO not quite. Still expect lost of -.01 +/- .01.

RBA
25.45-0.17(-0.66%)Dec 19 4:06 PMEST

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