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North American Palladium Limited Şirket Message Board

bellbell63 287 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 1999
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  • bellbell63 bellbell63 7 hours ago Flag

    Yes, IMO too early. With eventual rising interest rates in US do you thing that EUR will reach parity with th USD. It is now 1.10. The EUR sinking to 1.00 would cause a decline of $60/oz in PD with all other things being equal (supply/demand , investment etc) I don't like buying into that sort of headwind. At $600 SWC cannot make money much less at $540. And there is still unresolved labor issue. On the plus side SWC has a lot of cash.

    As far as Russia goes, they can still produce nickel and stockpile it, while selling the Pd. ANd who really knows how much PD Russia really has. Rumors of stockpile depleted have been around for years. And projected (J&M) PD deficit has been shrinking. There may be a deficit but no shortage right now.

    I could see $500 PD in 18 months.

  • Reply to

    SWC

    by gettenby Aug 1, 2015 2:49 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 1, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    Fisher or fishee? SWC last report not as bad as it seems on the surface. IMO principal problem is low PGM and BP prices. Not much they can do about that. I would not take the bait until there is a recovery in PGM prices, something I don't think will happen. Not in the short term and IMO not in the long term. The 580-620 support area seems to be holding. Fortunately they have a strong balance sheet. With these PGM prices any hope for a div or buyback is minimal.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Aug 1, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    Last split 2:1 was in 2000 !!!!! Price just before the last split was 94.94. Were are 54% above that now.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Aug 1, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    Last split was Dec 1999 !! Price just before that 3:2 split was 100.19
    Back well above that now. Maybe they will wait until the next div raise (November?) and announce both at the same time. So a long range (November) prediction - 3/2 split with .46 div/qtr on the new shares.

  • Reply to

    div.

    by johnc57101 Jul 31, 2015 1:46 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 1, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    So you'd be happy if stock dropped 50%, then would yield 4%?

  • Reply to

    Almost

    by bellbell63 Jul 23, 2015 3:53 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 31, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    Maybe Monday LOL.

  • Reply to

    Trying not to go quietly

    by taken_yo_money Jul 30, 2015 7:11 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 30, 2015 8:55 PM Flag

    " The "shorts" on this forum are living proof that these rosey outlooks were clearly happening as each and every quarterly release and press report was countered by the likes of bellbell, funtrader, and others"

    To keep the record straight I was never short. My comments were not an attempt to drive the stock down (as if I could anyway). My analytical side just had to respond to what clearly was a difference between what they were saying and what the numbers showed. The one I remember in particular was Pdt saying "All the trends are in the right direction" but if you looked at the report 4 out of 5 key metrics were in fact going in the wrong direction. Too bad so many lost so much.

    A glooming peace this morning with it brings.
    The sun, for sorrow, will not show his head.
    Go hence, to have more talk of these sad things.
    Some shall be pardoned, and some punishèd.
    For never was a story of more woe
    Than this of NAP and her CEO.

    With apologies to Will.

  • Reply to

    Almost

    by bellbell63 Jul 23, 2015 3:53 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 30, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Closed at ATH again Maybe tomorrow.
    GL

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jul 30, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Implied price of new shares is now about 5.60 just below the exercise price of 5.97. Weirdest re-org I have ever seen.

    Current shares were under .01 earlier - where a number of us said they should be,

  • Reply to

    Serious Question

    by nettlesm24 Jul 29, 2015 4:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 30, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    "Didn't we hear that NAP was beginning to bring up more than 5K from underground ..."
    recall on a cc that PdT said that they exceeded 5000TPD on several days in the quarter.
    That can be quirk of UG timing and logistics.

    This last:
    "During the quarter underground production averaged slightly more than 4800 tons per day which may averaging just over 5000 tons a day a record for the segment."

    ??? Not sure what that means but 5000+ on a regular basis does not seem to be happening yet.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jul 30, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    They have had 2 days to count the proxy votes. Usually very few turn up in person to vote so they should have the final result by now. So ?????

  • Reply to

    Serious Question

    by nettlesm24 Jul 29, 2015 4:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 29, 2015 10:08 PM Flag

    If no lawyer has come forth yet I don't think one will. Usually these guys appears within hours of something they think is fishy. The re-org has been known about for a long time.

  • Reply to

    Serious Question

    by nettlesm24 Jul 29, 2015 4:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 29, 2015 6:56 PM Flag

    You can't defer salaries and paying for fuel or electricity. I will check further.

  • Reply to

    Serious Question

    by nettlesm24 Jul 29, 2015 4:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 29, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    You are confusing TPD from the shaft with TPD going thru the mill. The shaft TPD is about 5000TPD. Under normal operations 3400 TPD of low grade surface stockpile is added to raised ore giving the 8400TPD. While the mill was closed (but mine/shaft still operating) they created a large surface stockpile of UG ore which now will also add to the mill mix until stockpile is used up. The 11500 TPD is 5000 TPD from shaft + 3400 TPD fromlow grage stockpile (they call it RGO) + 3100TPD from UG ore stockpile. 11500TPD is within the mil capacity but can the TMF handle it right now?

    Note that this will make Q3 look artificially better since the cost of building the UG stockpile was incurred in Q2 but revenue will be in Q3. Probably Q4 will be the first business as usual qtr (assuming the UG ore stockpile is all gone by the end of Q3. Whether they will show profit in a BAU qtr at the current metal prices is problematical. We may never see a Q3 or Q4 report as BAM may buy out the remaining 8% and take NAP private. Holding 92% they probably vote to take it private anyway.

    .

  • Reply to

    No live questions

    by bellbell63 Jul 29, 2015 10:16 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 29, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    "and no answers to e-mails."

    I think they meant to send them e-mail after the meeting and they (might) answer any questions.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jul 29, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    e-mail only. So they have time to spin it properly.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jul 29, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    Bank of America downgraded SWC from buy to underperform with target of 9.60.
    Wow,they can forecast the past!!!

  • As at June 30, 2015, the Company had cash and cash equivalents of $21.2 million compared to $10.4 million as at March 31, 2015.

    On June 18, 2015, Brookfield made available a US$25 bridge loan to fund short term liquidity requirements related to the recent mill shutdown. The bridge loan is available in two tranches, matures on September 15, 2015 and bears interest at 16%. On June 19, 2015, the Company drew down the first US$15 million tranche of the bridge loan and on July 14, 2015 drew down on the second US$10 million tranche.

    ============
    Without the bridge loan they would have no cash at all.

    So can they mill the stockpile fast enough to keep above water. But with PD at 620 about 140 less than their realized price last qtr does it matter?

    And the result of the vote was ????????? Maybe they will reveal it on cc.

  • Reply to

    Seal the mine for several years

    by barebuttbob Jul 28, 2015 11:00 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 29, 2015 12:42 AM Flag

    If you think this board is bad, try GE. Just total political ranting. Hard to find anything about GE.

  • Reply to

    Seal the mine for several years

    by barebuttbob Jul 28, 2015 11:00 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 28, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    PD will never double. Lucky to ever reach 800 again.

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