" Palladium, Platinum, spot prices haven't collapsed . "
Nov avg PD price $572 lowest since Sep 2010.
Nov avg PT price $878 lowest since Dec 2008.
Other byproduct metals similarly depressed.
What do you consider a collapse? $400 Pd?
Despite cost cutting and good balance sheet I see no reason to own SWC right now. Being above $9 still surprises me.
On the tea leaf side - major downtrend that stared in Aug 2014 still intact. As for the "triple bottom" - I see it. TA works until it doesn't. That's why TA books have a chapter titled "Failed patterns".
"I would guess the TSLA agreement will be used as further proof that any capital investment is worthwhile even if new-tech testing doesn't provide any recognized measure of long-term viability"
Very strongly disagree. Without the new more efficient process working at scale PE has no advantage over any other Li producer particularly well established deep pockets Ablemarle located on adjacent land just north (and slightly closer to TSLA).
Current market cap is about 20M. If it will take 100M (or ?) to get a full scale operational plant up and running (assuming lab bench tests are good) then you are looking at 80% dilution. If things proceed I would expect this to happen over the next couple of years. Any PR's, about Tesla or resources are just to help in doing financing and will have very little real substance.
My big worry is whether PE has exclusive rights to the new process. If not what prevents ALbemarle just to the north doing the same thing on a quicker time schedule as they have much deeper pockets.
They withdrew from a conference. That may mean they are in discussion with someone and the lawyers advised them not to attend. Pure spec on my part.
"Maybe it's not a deep dive, but JM's report projects autocatolyst demand to increase in 2015 by about 6% from 2014. For 2016, they state "On the demand side, we expect a continuation of the trends seen in 2015."
A long dive is not a deep dive.
But they do not give any analysis of why they think (auto cc) demand will go up. The key to forecasting auto demand is to look at the factors (economic,political,social) that cause people to buy (or not buy) cars and decide where those factors are headed. Unless you do that any projection of ICE auto sales (and thus PD) has no foundation. Just saying they see a continuation of the trends takes no more brains than a straightedge. Just as you cannot predict PD prices without looking at (underlying) auto sales, why is it OK to predict auto sales without looking at the underlying auto sales factors?
"Pd will be in deficit this year, for a fifth straight year."
And Pd right now at a 5 year low. The problem is on the demand side not the supply side. I haven't seen any deep dive into the demand side by anyone - including JM. Forget jewelry. IMO the only reason PD is as high as it is is because of the ETF selling. No I do not have that backwards. The fact the the ETF have sold means stockpiles have fallen - that is bullish
and supporting the price,.
On the demand side I believe that either this year or next will be peak ICE (gas,diesel,CNG).
White paper as to why is in the works, Current "good" auto reports are trailing indicator - that Pd was bought 6 months ago.
I think there is a difference between fundamentals and fundamental predictions. To me fundamentals is what is not what might be. Right the fundamentals are IMO poor - Pd headed to monthly average that will be about a 4 year low and $100 below last month. I know investing is about the future but you just can't ignore the present. Mgt may be quite competent but you can fight the metal prices collapse. Did you ever think you would see $850Pt? PT charts are worse than Pd.
Now as for the future, SWC didn't make money last quarter and likely won't this qtr. $500 PD is not out of the question. I see no reason to buy SWC here, even for the long (1 yr +) term. I still am playing SWC as a trading short on spikes.
Been 16 years since the last 3/2 split. Just after last split price was 68. Time for a split but my guess would be more like 3/2 or at most 2/1. No way 3/1 - would be out of character for HD.
One of the cv has something about warrants also. Details?
Has Blitz developement been affected by cost cutting?
Given the standoff, how are labor relations?
" Is Pd's price all about the Fed ? and zero about current and 2016 fundamentals?"
IMO fundamentals on the demand side.
"Do you really see mid-6's as realistic support, given that SWC is sitting on $3.80/sh cash and liquid investments?"
That was a chart read, not a fundamental read. But I can see 7.50 despite cash. At these prices they can burn .50 cash/year.
" I guess with an extremely bearish out-look for Pd., one might. But even then, Amplats, Implats, Lonmin and NAP will flounder, first, which would bring PGM back up again. "
Yes, NAP will be first to go. BAM pockets may be deep but even they must have a limit. SA politics messes up any rational analysis as we have seen with Lonmin (essentially a bail-out). Or govt can just lend them money so they can continue to operate (no layoffs) and stockpile Pd waiting for better prices.
All this potential downsizing is happening, while Oct. China auto sales rebounded 11+% YOY, 13% for larger, SUVs.
Auto sales are a trialing indicator for Pd. Cars built toady use PD bought 6 months ago.
"But it's all about that US dollar strength, it would seem ? until it isn't."
But that "isn't" could be 5 years away, We are at the start of #$%$ interest rate rise cycle.
" But I also can't think of a PGM miner is a better position than SWC to weather this storm." Agree
If SWC can reach their average analyst price target of $11 by late Jan or April, my risky bets should pay off nicely. GL with that.
Not quite sure what your question is. VW a non-issue either way. Pd 550 taken out easily O/N. No prediction below that unless I dig out a longer chart. As for SWC support 7.40-7.50 and again 6.20-6.60. No one can make money at PD 540 & Pt 875. Might SWC shutdown less productive Stillwater half and mine only East Boulder? With dollar continuing upward puts downward pressure on all commodities but especially PMs.
Fortunately SWC has low debt load and good cash. Don't know how NAP stays in business other than they get 715CAD at 550USD. Tough times ahead.
Depends on your time scale. A month ago SWC closed at 11.82 vs 9.16 today - that is down 23%. PD one the other hand closed 694 a month ago and is 598 now - down 14%. so if anything SWC has declined faster than Pd. That is what you would expect from any miner whose EPS and PPS are leveraged to the underlying commodity price.
If it wasn't for the good solid cash position and low interest and (declining) debt that price could be much lower. If current PGM prices stay here (or lower) for a several years it will get "interesting".
big: As for any significant SA operation to close, I think the govt would step in to aid them because of all the unrest a major loss jobs would cause. Lonmin has 26K+ employees. In relation to the SA economy they are too big to fail.
Deal was to buy 46 shares at 1p for each share held. Was trading at about 17p when offer was made. Now about 13p. As stockholder you really had no choice.
Yes it was a rights offering but at a 94% discount I would take it as a stockholder. Alternative was likley closing down altogether. They said it should keep them going until Pt prices recover. So the implication was they would stockpile some their output?
A non-event. A better event would be some progress report on Tenova process and any word on extracction plant design. Without that all these holes in the ground are just a gopher condo.
Buy low sell high is nice but sometimes in a bull market/bull sector you have to buy high and sell higher. IF you just wait and wait all you see is the plane fading off into the distance.
customer base that has leveled off..
Not a surprise. I get email/offers from about 5 other groupon like orgs - most just as good and some better.