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ETFS Physical Palladium Message Board

bellbell63 362 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 1999
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  • bellbell63 bellbell63 16 hours ago Flag

    Do you remember the Star-Trek episode where the ship was invaded by an alien entity that thrived on antagonistic emotions? That's spittle also. Don't feed him. Ignore him. I know it is very hard not to refute his unsubstantiated rantings. You (we) can't win this game as all we have is the truth and he can make up anything he wants. "The only winning move is not to play."

    Be careful of making replies to his posts as he will remove his post leaving your replies unseen limbo.

    FYI: Have taken a small initial position in PLG at .5302

  • Reply to

    How to understand payable palladium

    by banoslen Feb 20, 2015 3:31 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 16 hours ago Flag

    "I haven’t read the latest PR on the PEA in a detailed way. "

    You really must look at Figures 2 and 3 linked in the PEA.
    It tells a lot about where mgt thinks PAL is headed. Much of what I am posting comes from my interpretation of those 2 Figures. IMO those two Figures were major contributors to the crash.

  • Reply to

    Check out Barrons

    by ancelranch 18 hours ago
    bellbell63 bellbell63 17 hours ago Flag

    "Swc has a definitive agreement with one company that makes converters to sell all there palladium for 5 years. "

    That really doesn't change anything. It just means J&M will buy that much less on the open market.
    FYI contrary to some postings the SWC/JM contract is not at at fixed price. Price is set every month. Historically SWC get a few dollars above market.

  • Reply to

    Short-sell rule was in effect ..........

    by 717mainstreet Feb 27, 2015 7:11 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 17 hours ago Flag

    Yes as it is (easily) computer enforced in real time. Just because stock went down doesn't mean shorta. Can't you conceive of anyone wanting to just sell? Be interesting to see the short position as of 2/28. Rather than more shorts my guess is that a lot of shorts covered thus moderating the fall.

    IMO will open in the .24 - .25 range , be choppy for a while and then head downward.

    CY MOnday.

  • Reply to

    How to understand payable palladium

    by banoslen Feb 20, 2015 3:31 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 18 hours ago Flag

    "Q1 average UG daily production so far – are they making at least 4500 tpd?"

    I find it strange that in Figure 2 of the recent Tech report they show 2016 shaft TPD at 4500 and declining from there. Since JAN TPD is old history why did they choose not to make it public.

    My high level view of the TEch report and the linked figures was that mgt has turned away from UG expansion (maybe because they have no funds to ever do it). They will do what they can on the upper OZ and then re-focus on surface pit operations. Figures 2 and 3 tell more about where PAL is headed than the text.

    IMO here is the scenario - PAL will limp along until 2017 while the mgt collects their salaries. At that time the BAM loan comes due they will not be able to repay or re-fi. Mine will be turned over to BAM. Current mgt will either stay on as BAM employees or consultants and run the until BAM finds a buyer or move to another gig.

    As far as posting , when I worked at JPM posting about JPM on social media (at that time stock MB mostly) was forbidden and subject to disiplinary action up to and including dismissal.

  • Reply to

    In case you missed this from 4th qtr rept

    by dvb6000 Feb 27, 2015 4:11 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 18 hours ago Flag

    "Second, there is no way to generalize about the effect of adding promotional expense and its effect on free cash flow."

    Agree. IT has to be evaluated on a product/promotion case by case.

    It may be difficult to generalize but it can be done on a specific promotion. If I give a promotion costing x dollars on a specific (high margin) product and the sales of that product increase over a historic baseline for that product it is easy to see whether those x dollars were (or were not) covered by increased profits from that product. I think I saw somewhere that they discontinue promotions that "don't work" or something like that. That implies a useable metric. There is also the indirect benefits - increasing brand recognition.

    Did I see somewhere that some production runs only one shift? I know significant time is needed for cleaning, etc. Some amount of excess capacity is always good as it can easily be put to profitable incremental use (overtime). Too much implies a sales problem.

    As for div current 3.5 compares well to S&P 500 1.87% and DOW 2.73%. I expect raise from .018 to .020 on div after next which will be about 3.9 on current price. Div announcement likely this Thurs March 5th.

  • Reply to

    Opens Above .35 on monday

    by robertkamau914 Feb 27, 2015 4:44 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 27, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    Why? Wishes are not reality. Post like yours is a waste of time and space. If you want to make such black swan guesses at least say why you think so?

  • Reply to

    Dump and pump!

    by minricepkr Feb 27, 2015 4:17 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 27, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    My T/S show the following last 7 trade

    .2507 16.16
    .2507 16.16
    .2507 16.16
    .27 16.01
    .2443 15.59
    .2380 15.59

    SInce the AH B/A is .2330-.2489 pretty sure the .27 is a report from an earlier trade when it was trading around .27.

    In the absence of news, these AH outliers usually mean nothing
    Sometimes they are late reports from a large hold harmless trade.

    The calculation of the closing price is more complicated than you might think. See NASDAQ and SEC for how the official closing price is calculated. It is carefully defined because the closing price affects the NAV of funds.

  • Reply to

    In case you missed this from 4th qtr rept

    by dvb6000 Feb 27, 2015 4:11 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 27, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    Translated: We are going to forego some of our profits and give discounts and hope it is a net gain.

    Very common in the food industry (e.g mfr discount coupons).

    More: from q3 report

    Since the beginning of 2014, the Company continued to invest in higher than normal promotional
    expenses which have helped to fuel growth in sales, market share, and overall
    profitability. As an offset to higher promotional expenses, the Company has had a
    favorable change in its product mix which shifted towards more profitable items.

    Looks like thru Q3 they spent about 10% of their top line on promotions. I don't know whether this is a typical amount for this industry or not. The % may also be a function of company size.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 27, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    The above as of 9/30/2014

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 27, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    According to Morningstar they hold 245K shares about 5% of total assets in the fund.

  • Reply to

    how MMs steal share...

    by hft_lover Feb 27, 2015 11:36 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 27, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    When you use stops at Schwab the MM don't see them. Price is monitored by Schwab computers and when the stop price is reached the order is entered as a market order.

  • Reply to

    SWC today

    by bellbell63 Feb 25, 2015 11:58 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 27, 2015 8:08 AM Flag

    Didn't see the post but TY anyway.

  • Reply to

    SWC today

    by bellbell63 Feb 25, 2015 11:58 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 27, 2015 7:52 AM Flag

    Posts get "deleted" if is a reply and the message your are replying to gets removed by the poster. Your reply then has nothing to hang on. However I have found it still may be there is message mode. What Yahoo should do is leave the "removed" post but just remove the body of the text and replace it with "Text has been removed by the poster" and also leave the poster's ID.

    Deleting a post is a technique used by posters who don't like the replies they get.

    Try it. Make post A, reply B , and reply C. Wait till you see the thread and then remove A. When I did that B and C were still there but in message mode

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 26, 2015 11:31 PM Flag

    Look at Figure 2 and 3 referenced in the PR. Then decide if it was just profit taking or something else.

  • Reply to

    This PPS Was Predictable After Production Numbers.

    by ronjp2 Feb 24, 2015 9:51 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 26, 2015 11:28 PM Flag

    Sure, just ignore the big "I" in EBITDA, a mere 32M CAD/year. I doubt if there any other PAL bulls would make such a nonsense claim. And you ignore CAPEX forgetting that without CAPEX there would be no production and surely no earnings.

    Ignoring cold and snow there is no winter in Canada!!!!!

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 26, 2015 6:31 PM Flag

    Are you gonna buy because pumpers say that today's farce was just profit taking? 30M shares? Are YOU that wacked?All the people on this board put together don't have 30M shares. Sellers are funds and institutions who have the expertise to read the PEA and looked at the linked Figures.

    Some of the things in the figures
    - Mgt expects revenue to be peak in 2016 and decline from there. (Figure 1)
    - Mgt still plans to use 1% stockpile ore (RGO)for the next 4 years at 50% rate (figure 2)
    - Mgt expects shaft 4500 TPD in 2016 and decline to 3500 TPD in 2021 and be 0 in 2022. (figure 2)

    That's why it tanked. Just look at those Figures 2,3 Links are in the PR.
    Looks like they have thrown in the towel on continued UG P2 development - primarily because they do not have the money do it without a huge financing. So what is going to happen? PAL will limp along for the next two years, mgt collecting their salaries and when time comes to payoff BAM loan they (mgt) will just give mine to BAM and walk away (or continue on as well paid BAM employees and run the mine until BAM can unload it).
    They will then find another gig.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over
    They say that, 'All good things must end'
    Let's call it a night, the party's over
    And tomorrow starts the same old thing again

    Willie Nelson - The Party's Over

  • Reply to

    To those who want to know!

    by minricepkr Feb 26, 2015 3:48 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 26, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    Intact. Piece.

  • Reply to

    shorts just killed us again

    by benjy10 Feb 26, 2015 3:18 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 26, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    PAL is under RCB and also shares are almost impossible to borrow. Shorting is very difficult if not impossible and RCB will extend to tomorrow. Don't blame the shorts for this fiasco.

  • Reply to

    shorts just killed us again

    by benjy10 Feb 26, 2015 3:18 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Feb 26, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    28M volume was not the shorts. Big longs read the PEA and Figures an saw no future in PAL and dumped.

PALL
79.37+0.78(+0.99%)Feb 27 4:00 PMEST

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