"You can bet NAP got the funds it needed. The only question is whether it is a private placement or a public share offering. Funny that none of this has been announced like last years "
That would be a very material event and would need a PR /6K- therefoer IMO no financing has happened.
"To issue new shares causes dilution, but it can reduce high interest debt principle. .."
The need the 150M for operating plan. And for the tenth time becuase of BAM pre-payment fee it is not sensible to reduce the BAM debt. You would have to pay all the remaining interest (as if it was held to maturity) immediately. So you might as well keep the money for the operating plan. 1B new shares dilutes current stockholders 75%.
Face it, there is no way out. Everyone working for BAM.
BAM interest easy to calculate 170M x 15% = 25.5M USD = 32M CAD.
They also have smaller interest payments for LOC and dbs.
" BAM should finance the additional $150 million...
How? No lender will loan them any money with 170M of senior debt ahead of them. And to a company that hasn't had a profitable year in a long, long time. Equity financing fo 150M at thee prices would be about 1B new shares. And I think BAM can block that.
" Why can't they just operate for a year and use the built up cash to finance any CAPEX in the future"
Because they need $150M capex just to conntinue to produce at the levels you put forth (250K). No capex, the oz drops. A mine is a money pit (or in this case a money shaft). It takes much money to just stay where you are.
IMO your 250Koz is a bit high. I get closer to 220Koz. We will see if they ever release 2015 guidance. Carefully watch for qualifications to the guidance such as "220oz provided we can generate or raise funds for the 2015 plan"
The BAM loan agreement requires PAL to provide BAM with "timely" MONTHLY numbers.
"You really don't believe that preliminary production numbers for January haven't ..."
Did you mean DEC? JAN not over yet. It may be as bigsee4c says -2015 guidance depends upon the money available to carry out a 2015 plan. So it may be intertwined with the ability to do some sort of financing. When the news dam breaks IMO will have preliminary 2014 prod numbers, more drilling info, 2015 guidance and financing news. Will be so convoluted that will take a long time to understand the implications of it all.
IMO no PR until prelim Jan prod numbers are available. That way they can say (at the same time) that things are progressing in the right direction even though (IMO) Dec/Q4 didn't meet expectations.
Scroll down to Instit Tab.
FYI They are now largest Fund/Inst holder
I find it ironic that (talk about) sanctions on Russian PD or reverse sanctions by Russia would propel PD sharply higher when just the opposite rumor (Russia selling loads of PD) caused a sharp drop. No one except the Russians know what they have or what the plan to do so I discount any Russian related PD stories.
Here's a speculation for the delay. For whatever reasons dec/q4 was disappointing so they are waiting for (good) Jan numbers to release at the same time to dull the pain.
This is just conjecture on my part (not a lie) as to why no Q4 prod or guidance yet.
If you have any other possible explanations I would be happy to hear them.
OK. Those with links or cut/paste fr soomurce are more than opinion. However unless quoting explicit verified facts they may just be someone elses opinion. Example are predictions of Pd price - maybe from a bank but still an opinion.
Everything posted is opinion. An opinion cannot be either truth or lie. It is no more a lie for someone to say PAL is going to $3 than for someone to say they they are going BK. Bulls are speculative while bears are liars? When the facts are known some opinions will be right and some wrong. Being eventually wrong is not telling a lie. Those with hard info (such as mgt) can lie as when they said production had resumed the morning after the fatality. They conveniently omitted the word "normal" and "full". We later found out that production was affected for two weeks. I guess that opinions that agree with you are truths and those that don't are lies.
One of KLXI plan is to grow via acquiring and integrating oil service companies. But with oil collapsing it may make those acquistions cheap but not money making for a while. I expect oil to remain low for quite a while so I would avoid KLXI at the moment. Since the split, beav has outperformed klxi by about 15-20%.
"If the Chinese can do a power plant in weeks why can't the South Africans do one in years?"
There is a difference between bringing a plant on-line each week and building one in a week. The plants coming online now were probably started a couple of years ago.
" Ore modelling is pretty precise,"
If you do enough definition drilling. PAL mine is very lumpy - now you see Pd , now you don't. Miss by 20 meters and you get 2.5 instead of 4.5g#$%$ not like Mesabi where the whole mountain is iron ore and doesn't matter where you dig.
"Oh, and since you asked the question some time ago about what is in other people's portfolios, "
Wasn't me. Don't really care.
And what if the news is bad? Or Pd doesn't rebound? Or gap is down? If,if,if.....
Where is the 2014 prod report and the 2015 guidance?
Yes, made many millions on his NSR. In 2014 made about 6-7M. Bet he had many a meal at Hys at his favorite table with those NSRs.
At least someone made money, :-)