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Armanino Foods of Distinction Inc. Message Board

bellbell63 856 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Never fails

    by ibetondesmet Oct 29, 2014 3:23 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 12 hours ago Flag

    Getting (and financing) a new fleet would be an important and material event IMO requiring an 8-K if not at least a PR. So maybe fleet update hasn't happened. All i have heard is that they did get one new and one used ore truck. That is not a "fleet".

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 12 hours ago Flag

    And with 378M shares already outstanding even with survival who know what fair value EPS will be.
    378M is a big big divisor. Agree that true value cannot be evaluated until 2017 when loan issue is resolved. Since IMO no way they can'/will pay it off, they will have to find someone to roll it over at at lower rate. Maybe BAM will be nice and roll it over at 10%? :-) (Guess who hit a 52 week high today.)

    As for $4 - silliness. That would make market cap about the same as SWC a company in the same business as PAL. But SWC has a LOM greater than 20 years, and debt at under 2% , currently profitable operations ,IMO better management, and produces more PD from recycling alone than PAL produces by mining.

    Don' underestimate the importance of LOM. With a LOM of over 20 years , SWC is not under exploration development pressure. PAL with a LOM of 5 years must act promptly as things take years in the mining business (and requires money they do not have). SWC has about 500M in cash.
    I would expect a div or buyback to be announced at SWC cc on Nov 5th,

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 12 hours ago Flag

    Their report is in CAD (see introduction). So taking USD and directly using it to pay BAM does reduce the revenue in CAD terms. I am not saying they would do actual conversions, it's just bookkeeping.

    But forget the interest - the potential FX loss is because of the increased principal debt amount (in CAD).

    As far as ventilation most mines do need fan driven circulation. And if the outside air is too cold to push directly into the mines modern systems have a heat exchanger where upcoming (warm air) is used to warm up the downgoing cold air.

    Power is an issue at PAL as they are at the end of a HV transmission line. Shaft uses lots of KW and KWH. Mill uses even more. They may have gone to one ball mill running full time vs 2 running half time to reduce peak KW demand.

    Tic - toc, tic-tok

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 13 hours ago Flag

    "But the strengthening dollar won't affect PAL's interest payments with BAM."
    Yes it will, they will have to pay more CAD to meet the interest payable in USD. That does get offset by more CAD per oz.
    But I was referring to the FX charge because of the face amount of the loan (in CAD) goes from 173M to about 181M. GAAP rules require that FX gains/losses from cash and/or debt have to be charged. We shall see soon.

    So -.02 ex-charges. Maybe -10 to -.12 depending on charges.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 15 hours ago Flag

    Stronger dollar may cause a one time FX charge since BAM loan and interest are in USD. During Q3 USD went up 6% vs CAD. On 173M loan that is about a 8.7M (.02/share). There is also the question how the 26M (.06/share) payment to BAM for back interest and penalty are accounted for.

    My guesstimate for EPS is -.02 with excluding one-time charges. With both the above one-time charges it could be -.10.

    Propane is used for concentrate drying and miner living quarters heating,

    They don't use electricity because much more expensive than propane. They also have a electric supply problem just about having maxed out peak capacity available.

    Oil (diesel) is less of an issue as shaft lifting replaces a good deal of truck hauling to he surface.

    When you look at PD oz, look at production not sales. Sales will include 4Koz leftover inventory from Q2. That revenue will not affect EPS since extra sales will be cancelled out by a corresponding drop in inventory.

  • Reply to

    Less than a week before the cc

    by skittle12345 18 hours ago
    bellbell63 bellbell63 15 hours ago Flag

    While not a fan of PdT TPD in this particular situation has meaning since a visible ramping up will show that they can execute. As far as oz, since the grade and recovery don't vary much, oz and TPD are highly correlated. Also actual oz is delayed by several months for smelting and refining so TPD is a good real time proxy.

    oz/day = grade (g/t) x oz/g x tons/day x recovery rate (%)

    oz/day =4.5 gt/t x (1/31) x 5000 x .85 = 617 oz/day (=225 oz/year)
    This of course assumes they get to 5000 TPD by YE and maintain it throughout 2015.

    Maybe 2015 will no longer be a "transition" year.

    "overstates cash cost"
    Did you mean understate? Published cash cost are well below all-in costs and aill-in sustaining costs.

  • Reply to

    Funny stock price yesterday up double digits

    by skittle12345 Oct 29, 2014 10:18 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 29, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    He HAS stated
    objectives - to become a mid-tier low cost PD producer
    strategy - fully develop the potential of LDI lower offset (via shaft extension) zone and surrounding zones

    What is not clear is the ability and money needed to execute the strategy. So far LDI is two years late.
    Intermediate millstones such as TPD and ore handling have continued to be problematical. Every qtr we hear that it is a "transition" year. Well, been hearing that since 2012.

  • Reply to

    Tea leaves

    by bellbell63 Oct 21, 2014 12:48 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 28, 2014 1:29 PM Flag

    I have found this site to contain more info about a stock than most others, Funds, inst hlgds, insider action etc etc.

    D C

    I don't have a prem membership so I can't see historical info.

    Blackrock did sell 377K in Q2. Q3 data is spotty so far.

  • Reply to

    should we stick a fork in this one?

    by desert_stranded Oct 28, 2014 11:40 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 28, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    There is no point in making principal payments on the loan. Pre-payment penalty is the interest that BAM would have earned if portion being prepayed would have been held to maturity. So BAM gest all their interest whether you pre pay or not. PAL needs the cash more than BAM so why pre-pay?

    If you think that the pre-payment penalty is crazy. - yes it is - look at the full loan agreement.

  • Reply to

    Pd trend change.

    by bellbell63 Oct 6, 2014 8:29 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 28, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Need a close above 800 (a higher high)to confirm the trend reversal.

  • Reply to

    Good stock to own

    by bellbell63 Oct 27, 2014 4:10 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 28, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    You have neither a sense of humor or an understanding of irony. I was not comparing a Venture capital company vs a mining company I was comparing the screwor vs the screwee.

  • Reply to

    Q3 production 2500 TPD

    by palsucksbucks Oct 27, 2014 10:45 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 27, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    2500 IMO TPD too pessimistic. My guess is 3300 TPD, That would then require a 50% increase in TPD to reach the guided 5000TPD by end of year.

  • Reply to

    Good stock to own

    by bellbell63 Oct 27, 2014 4:10 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 27, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    BAM, :-)

    Whose hand is in your wallet?

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Oct 27, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    Guess what stock is up 33% in the last 52 weeks, pays a 1.40% div and is about 1/2% from 52 week high.

  • Reply to

    Tea leaves

    by bellbell63 Oct 21, 2014 12:48 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 27, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    Looking forward there may be some concern about Q4 with PD prices so far in Q4 averaging about $90 less than Q3.

  • Reply to

    Tea leaves

    by bellbell63 Oct 21, 2014 12:48 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 27, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    " I have to believe that at least some shorts would want to cover before an expected jump in EPS, and the possibility of a buyback or other shareholder friendly program being announced"

    That seems logical and consistent with what they have been saying but the tape looks awful.
    Hard to say what the reaction to the the report will be. Est (5 analysts) is .17.
    PAL also report BMO on the 5th.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 27, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    " I have my market order in at auto-sell at 2.02 (just to avoid penny stock commission fees for anything under $2)"
    What broker do you have? Most brokers these days charge a flat per trade fee no matter what the stock price.

  • Reply to

    Pure speculation

    by mz_lifer Oct 20, 2014 2:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 21, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    "And the big boys are nibbling. "
    Since you like "Fact" how do you know this? If you watch the tape and L2 you will see there is a big boy selling.

  • Reply to

    law suit

    by mmoubied65 Oct 21, 2014 4:55 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 21, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

    He has a duty but doesn't guarantee he will be successful at it. Stop whining. Take your loss, share the loss with the IRS and move on.

  • Reply to

    Dead Cat Bounce

    by palsucksbucks Oct 21, 2014 10:06 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 21, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    Agree. Shorting here has little profit potential. Besides almost impossible to short it. That being said does not mean it is a buy. From this point a new long position or a new short position might lose it all. My bias is more downside when Q3 disappoints with a list of excuses from PdT.

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