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Armanino Foods of Distinction Inc. Message Board

bellbell63 452 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Drilling report but no TPD?

    by bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 8:59 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    My motives are irrelevant. If you don't like what I say put me on ignore. And some people don't have to guess.

  • Reply to

    Drilling report but no TPD?

    by bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 8:59 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 10:40 AM Flag

    So you've said that you don't care about TPD, you don't care about Pd price, you don't care about BAM - so what do you care about that makes a difference to PAL? Some drilling results that say where to mine a couple of years from now? LOM not as important as life-of-pal.

  • Reply to

    Drilling report but no TPD?

    by bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 8:59 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    " in the drilling results "SIGNIFICANTLY ADDING TO TONNAGE PER DAY!!!" "
    Nonsense. Drilling result are just a guide to where to mine the the future. Used to revise the mine plan. No immediate effect on TPD which is function of current stopes.

  • Reply to

    Drilling report but no TPD?

    by bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 8:59 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    BAM is not a bank. It is a vulture capital company. They can change the terms whenever they want and have not.

  • Reply to

    Drilling report but no TPD?

    by bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 8:59 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    " Have you looked at the revolving credit loan? It is based on receivables. Hence it has nothing to do with palladium pricing and everything to do with demand for PAL's product."

    PAL problem is not demand for their product, but producing that product. They could sell all they produce. And price does affect LOC. Lower prices mean lower receivables means lower LOC.

    Q4 avg PD price so far is 780. Well below the Q2 avg of 810 at which PAL lost money.

  • Reply to

    Seems mine life will be extended

    by skittle12345 Oct 16, 2014 9:32 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    Life of mine possible extensions depend upon having the money and time to do the development. Right now PAL has neither. New zones require years to come on line. Let's worry about Q3 before some theoretical LOM. They may be using the drilling results to set up sale.

  • Reply to

    Anything new ?

    by landson4feet Oct 16, 2014 8:31 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    You are never stuck. Sell, share the loss with the IRS and move on.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    Financial pundits are saying the big drop coming today is Ebola based fears. Sad to say I was couple of months ahead of the curve in one this one with Aug 5th post.

    Job figures were good but looking at at 250 early DJI loss.

  • They can publish a multipage extensive Q3 drilling report just 2 weeks after Q3 ends but can't mange to reveal two simple numbers - July TPD and Aug TPD? What are they hiding?

  • Reply to

    A Tale of Two Companies

    by redrum84 Oct 16, 2014 8:27 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 8:45 AM Flag

    The are required to spend some amount on E/D because of the flow thru shares they sold. And with a life-of-mine of 5-6 years they must do E/D or they will be gone in 6 years even if they do survive the current crisis.

    For comparison SWC has a current LOM of more than 20 years.

    Yes, the silence in the case is not golden. What's the big secret? If July,August showed progress why not say so. I guess they didn't.

    PD down to $740 - surely below profitable level for PAL.

  • Reply to

    What a day

    by bigsee4c Oct 15, 2014 2:39 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 16, 2014 8:39 AM Flag

    Half/half is in my day trading account. No time for so many tranches. Slower plan for investment account.

  • Reply to

    I wouldn't sell if I were you...

    by takenyomoney Oct 15, 2014 9:42 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 15, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    Some other biases that cloud decision making

    Confirmation bias: This is probably the most common and the most subliminal, as many people naturally exhibit this bias without even knowing it. Often times called selective search for evidence, confirmation bias occurs when decision makers seek out evidence that confirms their previously held beliefs, while discounting or diminishing the impact of evidence in support of differing conclusions.

    Anchoring: This is the over-reliance on a single piece of a priori information or experience that affects one's ability to adjust to new potentially relevant information. (like that the price was once 12.00)

    Overconfidence bias: This is another potentially disruptive personal bias and occurs when a person subjectively overestimates the reliability of their judgments versus an objectively accurate outcome.

    Groupthink: This is a bias within group decision making that leads the group toward harmony rather than a realistic evaluation of alternatives.

    Temporal bias:
    Giving undo weight to recent events.

  • Reply to

    Notice

    by nettlesm24 Oct 15, 2014 3:13 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 15, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    Buy? No way. Never buy a stock that hits all-time low 3 days in a row. Despite bounce off of low, still down another 3% today. .134 will be tested.

  • Reply to

    What a day

    by bigsee4c Oct 15, 2014 2:39 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 15, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    I started to write down all the things I think of during the day so I remember them at a later time.
    Big ones are
    - don't buy/sell during the amateur hour.
    - -buy half of what you want to - (maybe) buy second half later

  • Reply to

    It's bad when THEY delete valid posts. . .

    by mpggrb555 Oct 14, 2014 7:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 15, 2014 2:13 PM Flag

    "The company should simply shut down operations, conserve cash, and start back up when the commodity prices go up."

    If they do that they will be out of business in 6 months. How do they pay BAM interest? IF they shut down, receivables drop and with it the line of credit. How do they repay that? And why are you so sure PD prices will go up? Pd = auto = world economy. Europe on brink of downturn led by German slowdown, Japan a mess. US and China alone cannot carry the world economy. Despite many reports of Pd deficit (I think they all read JM and echo what they say) I think fair p[rice for PD is 775-825 range.

  • Reply to

    It's bad when THEY delete valid posts. . .

    by mpggrb555 Oct 14, 2014 7:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 15, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    They have done this because of dangerous (virus and malware) links in spam. People tend to click first , worry later.

  • Reply to

    I wouldn't sell if I were you...

    by takenyomoney Oct 15, 2014 9:42 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 15, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    "The recent plunge is directly related to the price gyration in spot palladium prices"
    You can't have it both ways - blame drop in PD for PAL drop and ignore lack of rise in PAL when Pd rose. Increased production rate will drop costs but so far PAL has not shown the ability to do that. Q1 = 3050 TPD , Q2 2950 TPD. Q3 production has been guided lower.

  • Reply to

    I wouldn't sell if I were you...

    by takenyomoney Oct 15, 2014 9:42 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 15, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    The FX charge is related to the BAM loan which is denominated in USD. The loan is now 183CAD. Accounting rules usually require that the increase in the local currency amount of the loan be taken as a charge. And PAL is not an exporter in the traditional sense. They sell into a globally fungible commodity market. We shall see in early NOV.

    From Q2 report

    The gains and losses were primarily due to the impact of exchange rate movements on the US$ denominated senior secured term loan and the US$ denominated credit facility.

    In Q3 USD/CAD went up about 5%. So it looks like there will be a charge.

    If Q3 TPD (which they surely know) showed progress towards the miracle 5000TPD they would announce it. Why the silence? What are they afraid to divulge? Are there new unrevealed operational problems.

    PdT said extending the shaft is crucial to reaching LDI full potential. Where is the money to do that coming from?

    Don't worry, just keep buying.

  • Reply to

    I wouldn't sell if I were you...

    by takenyomoney Oct 15, 2014 9:42 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 15, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    " No, I don't have a REALIZED loss until I sell"

    The only difference between a realized and an unrealized loss is that the unrealized loss can get worse. Clearly you are married to PAL and nothing - facts, market, PR from PAL will change your mind. You are right and all the sellers are wrong.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Kudos to Management

    by au_unhedged Jul 31, 2014 10:10 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Oct 15, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    Ebola all over all the news - including financial. Now another case from a Ohio to Dallas flight!!!
    Irrational fear will start to take over - people will stop going to stores, movies, restaurant. Lesser travel will cause gasoline demand and price to drop. Don't underestimate this. The economy will surely be affected.

AMNF
2.01-0.06(-2.90%)Nov 28 12:59 PMEST

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