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Armanino Foods of Distinction Inc. Message Board

bellbell63 421 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 1999
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  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 6, 2014 11:29 PM Flag

    Actually cover ratio is about 9 days at current volume. How do you get a year? I suspect most of the short interest is hedge related and does not have to be classically unwound.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 6, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    No, no and no. I have no confidence that the team in place can execute what they need to do. Time is running out. If they had plenty of cash and no debt you could just wait it out. Since they already guided Q3 lower than Q2, here is a pre-made list that PdT can use on the Q3 cc to explain a poor Q3.

    - Lost several weeks because of unfortunate fatality.
    - residual safety issues
    - Still having crusher problem with large size muck
    - time lost to reconfigure mill to one ball mill running full-time
    - lack of trained miners
    - changes to stope strategy and tactics
    - mgt time lost looking for additional financing
    - delays caused by excessive eqpt fleet downtime and maintenance
    - low productivity due to phasing in of new fleet and operator training
    - unusual swarms of summer mosquitoes clogging ventilation shafts
    - summer season drought raised hydro-electric rates

    The ONE and ONLY thing that can save ( note I said save, not thrive) is to get production up rapidly. And that is the ONE thing they seem incapable of doing. Does anyone here really believe they will get to 5000TPD by the end of the year. Or anywhere near 250Koz in 2015?

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 6, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    "as the company started its transition to an underground mine"

    It has been mining underground for several yeara (upper offset zone) but using ramps and trucks to bring ore to surface. That is a very expensive method which is why they started to dig the shaft 2 years ago. Truck/ramp has high fuel costs, high labor costs and logistical costs.

  • bloomberg
    D C
    /news/2014-08-06/chalco-rises-by-daily-limit-on-rare-earth-plan-shanghai-mover.html

  • Reply to

    Back in

    by bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 11:31 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 6, 2014 12:25 AM Flag

    Out just before close at 18.02. IMO in some sense day trading is less risky than holding overnight. I never get caught by really bad overnight news. Would never hold 7K overnight unless hedged. Look at what happened Jul 31 - down almost 2 pts before recovering somewhat.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 6, 2014 12:20 AM Flag

    By then it will be too late.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    A reverse split changes nothing as far as the company is concerned. Maybe some cosmetic effects but no financial effects. I have found the R/S often destroys stockholder value anywhere from 30-50%,
    some when it is announced and some more when it becomes effective. Many of the reasons are psychological and ego-driven -
    - some people like to think of themselves as "players". Owning 12,000 of XYZ doesn't sound as impressive as 240,000 shares (1/20 R/S) . Those people will move on to another penny stock.
    - Earnings - would you rather own a .25 stock that lost .03/share or a 5.00 stock that lost .60/share?
    Somehow the second SEEMS much worse - higher price and bigger loss, Really no difference.
    - I'll pay .25 as a roll of the dice for a company losing money but not $5.00.

    None of the above are valid financially but it's what happens. Down 20-30% on announcement and another 20-30% on the effective date. This then makes it more expensive for any equity financing.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    "done it is just mindless repetition."
    Not at all especially when you are trying to develop a deep narrow ore body. That's what all the in-fill drilling is about. Trying to find the just the fudge in the heap of vanilla-fudge.

    There also is a limit to the number of people that can work a stope. Active area is limited.
    The mill is irrelevant now - way over capacity. And "start running some tonnage" - PAL has shown easier said than done. Bottlenecks seem to be ore handling, not people and maybe unreliable equipment fleet.

  • Reply to

    Serious question

    by bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 10:58 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    "AND NAP increases production..."

    The one and only thing that can save PAL is ramping up production quickly and efficiently. And that seems to be the one thing they fail to do. 2900 TPD in Q2? You really believe they will reach 5000 TPD by YE 2014? Or 250,000 Koz in 2015? The seem to have a never ending stream of excuses instead of an increasing stream of ore. To make PdT job easier at the Q3 cc, I will make a list of excuses he can use.

  • Reply to

    Serious question

    by bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 10:58 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    "they may be able to restructure their debt, namely the outrageous interest they're paying on the BAM loan. "

    Why would BAM restructure the loan - especially if as you say their cash flow increases and increases their ability to pay. Loans arfe usually restructured when borrower can't pay.

    As for re-financing elsewhere the pre-payment penalty right now stands at about 45% of the principal. That makes it alsmost impossible to refinance.

    To be precise the loan agreement says:
    "Prepayment penalty shall be the interest lost by BAM as if the loan where held to maturity"

    Since about 3 years to go at 15% that is about 45% pre-pay penalty.

  • Reply to

    Pd Price Action

    by redrum84 Aug 5, 2014 11:48 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    Drop off is traders sensing a top. SA ETFs who accumulated over 900K oz have bought little in the last two weeks. SA production probably is ramping back up. And there has not been a single sanction against any Russian commodity. And if there is first will be oil. So no reason for PD to continue to rise.

    The "decline" as you call it IMO isd just a dropping back to a equilibrium price of may $825. Assets of all kinds typically overshoot what is reasonable.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    Mine already runs 24/7. Limiting factor is poor TPD not the mill. Also inadequate or unreliable equipment fleet.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    For a trade 7K 17.77

  • Reply to

    liquidity

    by wrb335 Aug 4, 2014 11:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    Agree. IMO divvy giving support. I have 106K and not pleasant to think about getting out fast. Even getting out slow would now would take a week or more.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    Pd above $800 didn't do it
    SA strikes didn't do it
    Possible Russian sanctions didn't do it
    Shorts haven't done it
    Q2 report didn't do it
    Q3 report surely will not do it

    So, seriously, what do the longs here think will happen that will turn PAL around?

  • Reply to

    Today

    by bellbell63 Aug 4, 2014 10:34 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 8:36 AM Flag

    Second trip - 7500 in at 18.14 out at 18.28. Entry timing was not the best but I'll take it.

    PD getting hammered. If it closes around here (840) confirms a (temporary?) downtrend with a lower low.
    Going to have some tea and toast for breakfast. :-)

  • Reply to

    Today

    by bellbell63 Aug 4, 2014 10:34 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 5, 2014 8:33 AM Flag

    You are not on my ignore list.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 4, 2014 11:11 PM Flag

    Thanks for the correction. Yes, 6-18 months at least. And won;t be a surprise as it is a long deliberate process that starts with a Non compliance warning letter.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 4, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    First of all PAL is listed on NYSE MKT not NYSE/AMEX. Rules are different.

    From the NYSE/MKT page on suspension and delisting

    "Sec. 1002. POLICIES WITH RESPECT TO CONTINUED LISTING

    The Rules of the Exchange provides that the Board of Directors may, in its discretion, at any time, and without notice, suspend dealings in, or may remove any security from, listing or unlisted trading privileges.

    There then follows pages and pages that the Exchange may consider. Note in the above paragraph :

    " Board of Directors may, in its discretion,at any time, and without notice,..."

    There are no hard and fast rules. Completely at the discretion of the Exchange BOD.

  • Reply to

    Can i still buy?

    by computerfixuper Aug 4, 2014 1:43 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Aug 4, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    Of course you can now at 11.83. Why is stock at not at 12.00? Discounted for the risk that the deal doesn't happen.

AMNF
1.85-0.02(-1.07%)Sep 18 3:55 PMEDT

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