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Armanino Foods of Distinction Inc. Message Board

bellbell63 281 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 minutes ago Member since: Apr 25, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Q2 report

    by bellbell63 Jul 15, 2015 10:13 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 18, 2015 12:04 AM Flag

    $45M would just be 1.50/share so no.
    Tried to find another small public specialty foods company as a comp:
    LWAY - Lifeway Foods
    Sales 117M
    EPS .17
    7.7M EBITDA
    PPS 15
    Mkt cap = 241M (14 x EBITDA)
    There is something strange about this company and its numbers will try and look for a better comp.

  • As long as there are no big bids the price should hold and maybe rise. No, I'm not crazy - as long as the bid size is just 100 shares no one will risk selling any significant amount. If the bid size were 5000 a potential seller might pull the trigger. And conversely on the ask - a big ask size might induce a buyer to pull the trigger.

  • Reply to

    PAL Value

    by bigsee4c Jul 16, 2015 1:36 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 17, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    "My way of thinking rightly or wrongly is that both e-trade and yahoo state that PAL is one of two major producers of palladium so they had the market kind of locked up, "

    PAL is an insignificant producer of Pd. What you maybe saw was that PAL was one of the two North American producers or that PAL (and SWC) were the only two primary producers of Pd. By primary they mean PD is their primary product. But most of the world PD is produced as a byproduct of PT mining (South Africa) and nickel mining (Russia). World output is about 6M oz, PAL output about 200K so they produce only about 3% of the world annual PD. Not quite locked up.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jul 17, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    With PD approaching $600 and byproducts following I don't see SWC in the black. That and unresolved labor issues. I anticipate earning est reductions. Under 10 is deserved.

    They have 4.50/share in cash and 2.50/share in low interest debt. At what point does SWC become attractive to a major or a hedge fund?

  • Reply to

    PAL Value

    by bigsee4c Jul 16, 2015 1:36 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 17, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    And a shareholder is supposed to do their own dd. Where were you when they took the predatory BAM loan? Wasn't that a big red flag?

  • Reply to

    PAL Value

    by bigsee4c Jul 16, 2015 1:36 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 17, 2015 7:28 AM Flag

    "Isn't the board of directors of a company suppose to provide some kind of guidance
    before a company gets in a financial nightmare?"

    I don't have any idea what to make of this statement. If you are serious what rock have you been living under?
    Or else my sense of sarcasm is waning.

  • Reply to

    How long ?

    by gettenby Jul 16, 2015 6:03 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 10:46 PM Flag

    Under 525-575 for PD

  • Reply to

    Q2 report

    by bellbell63 Jul 15, 2015 10:13 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 9:06 PM Flag

    From 2014 report
    Income before taxes and D/A 6.046M (includes 97K in interest earned and other income and 46K in interest paid)

    See page 12 of YE report on their website.

    So looks like annual
    EBITDA is about 6M.

    Q1 was about 1.57M

    Q2 financials usually reported on their website in a couple of weeks.

  • Reply to

    This rise still has a long way to go

    by freshbread4u Jul 16, 2015 3:24 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 4:46 PM Flag

    I would be very happy with 2.75 by YE. Have been selling some because much too overweight and sales fund my RMD in my IRA. Still have over 124K.

  • Reply to

    results are great

    by freshbread4u Jul 16, 2015 11:07 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    IMO the results (.036) with the old equipment justify a raise. Been a year at .018. We shall see in Sept. GL

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 2:56 PM Flag

    Anyone know or see what the div on EPC will be. ENR (new) announced 1.00/year.

  • Reply to

    PAL Value

    by bigsee4c Jul 16, 2015 1:36 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    I am confused by the word "purchase". The rights are free to existing stockholders. Does that mean they must/will exercise their rights at 5.97 which will be just about $50M?

    From SEC filing"
    "on the rights issuance date, each holder of New Common Shares will receive, for each New Common Share held, one (1) right to subscribe for 0.1693 New Common Shares (the “ Rights ”) at a subscription price of $5.97 per New Common Share (the “ Rights
    Offering ”); "

    No mention of having to pay for the rights.

    Description of the Rights from filing
    ----------------------------------------------
    Each Right entitles the holder thereof to subscribe for 0.1693 New Common Shares, such that a holder may exercise 5.91 Rights to purchase one (1) New Common Share for the Subscription Price prior to the Rights Expiry Time.

    A holder of Rights who has exercised in full its Basic Subscription Privilege may subscribepro rata for additional whole New Common Shares, if available, at the Subscription Price. Those additional whole New Common Shares will be allocated from those New
    Common Shares, if any, available as a result of Rights that are unexercised at the Rights Expiry Time. If not exercised, the Rights shall expire no later than 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on the **** 21 st calendar day following the Rights Issuance Date****.

    I guess the bean counters concluded that new NAP easily trades above 5.97 so they can exercise and sell or sell the rights in open market. Will there be a market for just 21 days? But what if new NAP trades at $4? It's like they are giving you a 21 day option at 5.97 but you don't know the price of the stock. New NAP would have to trade at $12 to make the current stock worth .03.

  • Reply to

    results are great

    by freshbread4u Jul 16, 2015 11:07 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    Pretty much ensures a div hike to at least .02 (+11%) in the Sept div announcement.

  • Reply to

    PAL Value

    by bigsee4c Jul 16, 2015 1:36 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    "Assuming the true valuation is somewhere in-between, then shareholders will have the "right" to purchase a stock at a higher value than it's worth (though, still half what it's trading today). Yippy! "

    But I thought the rights offering was to raise $50M to repay the $25M bridge and provide some working capital. But if new NAP trading below the rights price of 5.97 why would stockholders (principally BAM) exercise the rights? And if BAM doesn't exercise where does the money come from to repay BAM (A bit circular). If trade is well below 5.87 does BAM just put $50M into NAP, take $25M repayment out and leave the other $25M as working capital and just sit on the rights and hope. Puzzled.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    In Q1 2015 , they lost 15M (ex-FX loss) when PD average for the qtr was 786.

    Now about $150/oz of BAM interest has been removed but PD now is 636 - $150 lower.

    Q2 will be a massive loss because mill down all of June and PD lower (756 avg)
    Q3 is problematical - PD likely way down for the qtr offset by higher volume from ore stockpile.

    Even the new and improved NAP seems quite a risk.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    If the bidder 2.13 x 16,100 gets impatient and start to chase or nibble higher, day will even be better.
    Right now 2.31 - 2.35 16,100 x 5,000 Last = 2.33

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    As I read the tea leaves, there is a band of support around 580-620. Getting close to that. As irrational as it sounds, if 580 or so doesn't hold, 400 is not impossible. Note that is just tea leaf reading not and supply/demand analysis - you know my feelings there.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    If govt is hesitant about China controlling MU no way they would let CHina control AMAT. There are other memory makers but only one AMAT.

  • Reply to

    some humor from NAP

    by the_truth_4 Jul 14, 2015 1:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    Exercise price is 5.97. So if they intend to raise the $50M they expect the rights to be exercised promptly. If new PAL trades significantly below that the rights won't be exercised? Does that put BAM at risk having to pony up more money to keep PAL going? Does BAM really expect price to be $6? I am a bit puzzled. Even at $6 the current shares are worth $6/400 = .015 and are trading at .03 ??

  • Reply to

    some humor from NAP

    by the_truth_4 Jul 14, 2015 1:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jul 16, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    I think your estimate for new PAL is a bit high. At 5 it would mean the PAL would be valued post-debt-removal at 20x pre-debt removal. Given the price of metals I see no reason for that. My guestimate is under $2 within a week.

    On the other side, rights offer IMO will not have that much of an effect - it is just about a 15% dilution.

    NAP is still not out of the financial woods - $25M of the $50M rights money will pay back the emergency bridge loan. (was there a second $25M loan?) They still have the $50M (est) LOC balance. Plus cash need to fully repair TMF.

    The Q2 report is the day before the big bang - 98% dilution, 1/400 RS and rights offering. Q2 will be a massive loss with the mill down all of June. That will affect (maybe unfairly) the new PAL valuation. On the other side they have a massive amount of ore mined, crushed and ready to process which will make Q3 look better. The true test will be Q4 when most of that stockpile is gone and it is back to business as usual,

    .

AMNF
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