"The Company had two distributor customers who accounted for 55%, and 29% in 2014 of
outstanding receivables at December 31, 2014.
During the years ended December 31, 2014, 2013 and 2012 sales to the Company’s
distributor in Asia amounted to 13%, 11% and 14%, of the Company’s total gross sales."
Basically 2 dist in US and one in Asia. I don't think you are overly negative, just justifiably cautious.
My daughter is in the food business and the distributors have the upper hand.
AMNF also is dealing with a product that needs freezing/refrigeration making distribution more difficult and expensive. Makes it hard to expand to east coast with out using a co-packer with resultant costs and quality issues.
They incurred the debt to finance a stock buyback. They bought about 3M shares at avg of around 1.05. Not so sure they are so shrewd. Earnings are being held back by HUGE promotional costs. They say helps bottom line but it is a big headwind, Typically promo costs (which come directly ot of the bottom line) are equal to or slightly larger than earnings. Are they caught on a treadmill of promo costs to keep sales up? Are the prom's to end buyers or distributors?
I expect Q4 to be about .030. IMO will not be greeted with delight by market.
I think deline is Asia is due to the strong dollar making AMNF products more expensive. Recently got back from 3 wks in Japan and saw very little Italian food either in restaurants or markets. Japanese get their pasta via udon or ramen,
I'm not saying there won't be demand for BEAV products , just that their profits will be adversely affected by strong dollar. They don't seem to be interested in hedging.
We are in a 3 month downtrend - down 12% from the high.
Up 5.4% YTD vs up .75% for S&P YTD.
They said 9 mo earnings were about 3% higher than last year. If that continues the full year will be about .124 with Q4 being ,028. Q4/2014 was .030. So earnings will have been about flat for 4 qtrs - IMO stock is fairly priced here maybe a tad high. Forward P/E of about 17 is high for the growth shown. Divvy gives support. IMO PPS will stay flat for at least 3-6 months until earnings start to accelerate again.
BEAV 52 wk low, BEAV + 1/2 KLXI now about $60. Just before announcement BEAV was about $90. Just after announcement was over $100 I seem to remember. What a mess. Well done BOD!!!!
Also USD keeps rising vs EUR. IMO that will continue for at least 1-2 years as EZ keeps interest rates low and US may star to raise them. EUR=USD will really hurt BEAV.
Along with EZ on brink or recession IMO BEAV dead money for a couple of years. ONly hope is that they raise div but I see that as unlikely.
Once a buyer (mature or otherwise) gets accustomed to a discount hard back off. Situation is worse if its the distributer who wants the discount - they do most of their business through a small (2? 3?) distributors so not a question of mature market - just some hard negotiating. My daughter has a food business (Brooklyn Piggies) and unless you are selling something really really hot the distributor has the upper hand.
If your point is that Asia sales decline is due to strong dollar and that there is nothing AMNF can do about that you are correct.
I continue to be concerned that promo expense are very large and still rising. While AMNF has said this increases sales and profits, buyers are greedy - "what have you done for me lately" . Promo costs come right off the bottom line. Promo costs are more than earnings.
It's a tough headwind.
Earnings coming up 10/22 and from the stock action last couple of weeks does implies it will not be good. I sense steady inst/fund liquidation of BEAV. Staying away from both has proved wise.
In a very similar position. Started in 2009 at .44. Now have 127K at avg 1.36 Trying to slowly reduce my position to fund the RMD in my IRA. Also too heavily weighted in AMNF.
If in a different situation I would hold or maybe add on dips. We have quietly given back 11% from the high. I am slightly uneasy about Q3 but am enjoying collecting $2400 div each qtr.
A typical DT for me is about $50K and that would be 100,000 sh .....
I am a day trader but not with HMGLF. Don't confuse HFT with DT. I might be in and out of a stock once maybe twice a day. The spread on HGMLF (typically about 3%) is too big for day traders and the liquidity is not there either. A typical DT for me is about $50K and that would be 25000sh - just not feasible here. Compare that with CAT with a spread of about one tenth of 1% and 50K is 700 shares - much easier to trade. I doubt the volume here is DT. It could be swing traders - who may hold for several days or longer.