What about consumer fraud class action suits? They paid for advertised low emission and high milage.
Be careful with SWC here, has been known to drop .50 suddenly for no reason.
IMO PD spike was mainly short (that bs4c mentioned) covering
One broker I had told me how to invest in developmental bio-tech
Buy 10 different ones
Wait 10 years
Hope the one or two successes pays for all the others that went bellyup.
Refreshing to talk about company, products, supply, demand etc rather than where the stock is going to be in the next 30 minutes. :-)
I think TSLA is playing all the producers and gov'ts against each other. If all the Li these various entities say they can produce actually happen we will be up to our car roofs in Li. Many are not actually producing.
Yes, Silver Mtn is old tech - but "new" tech still not online anywhere soon.
And Ablemarle, with purchase of Rockwood and stake in Talison is not going to stand still and let PE or anyone else eat their lunch.
I was a little annoyed at the "Signs deal with TSLA" PR. Was self serving and just on the edge of misleading (unless of course one took the trouble to actually read beyond the title). Caused big spike and drop which gets labelled "pump and dump". Mgt should have known better. Mining is a tricky, capital intensive, slow moving business - just ask North Am Palladium "investors". It is the rare significant sized project that is on time , on budget and (most importantly) on expectations. "Investors" here have to be patient, expect disappointments and significant dilution of equity along the way whether to partners or secondary offerings.
That being said, accumulation on dips IMO is OK but have a 3+ year time frame.
Remember your are competing with a well financed , low capex long time existing operation just to the north (Abelmarle - was ROC).
" impressive collection of institutional holders"
I don't give that much weight for any stock. Like someone said about a forward pass in football, 3 things can happen and two of them are bad. Depending upon what source you use SWC is from 85 to 95% owned by funds and institutions. Well, they can do three things, only one of will punish the price up. When I am trying to judge whether a variable is good or bad I mentally push it to an extreme and see what the implications are. IF SWC were 100% owned by institutions would you consider that bullish or bearish? I like stocks that are maybe 50% owned by inst. To me that mean the stock is interesting to them but not all have bought in yet.
"to better understand the economics and feasibility of using modern processing techniques to convert the Clayton Valley South brines into the high purity lithium"
New process not proven yet and surely not a commercial scale. My guess not a oz delivered until 2018.
PD collapse started mid-June. We really can't tell SWC profitability in Q3 till we see Q3 report. In general , any mine , AU, PD or whatever, has show a profit in the long run. IMO SWC is not profitable at these prices. And I believe that Pd collapse is not a temporary phenom but a long term sea change in PD supply/demand. Only a MAJOR SA producer shutdown will reverse it and I don't see that coming. So my answer to your question is that SWC isfacing the same challenges as Au producers. At what point will the pain be so great as to cause them to shut down less profitable stopes? Q3 report will help answer that.
99.9 using a process that is still in the lab stage. Even if preliminary tests prove good, they still have several years and many millions needed (=stock offerings) before the deliver a single ton to TSLA. As any process engineer will tell you scaling up is always a major challenge.Then there is permitting and environmental reviews etc. If things go really well first production IMO not until late 2018.
This stock needs patience not PR's.
".... companies that have sustainable long term profit, SWC does not belong to that subset."
If you believe that why should anyone buy them?
And then the money is transferred back to BAM in payment of the bridge loan. So when the dust clears BAM has same amount of money and 8M more shares.
98% of the rights are held by BAM. They are obligated by the Arrangement agreement to exercise. Since they own 98 of NAP it is just moving money from one pocket to another. So they get 8M shares for just moving money around.
Why is it that whenever a stock goes down longs cry bear raid or short attack. They have no real knowledge just trying to rationalize the drop. With 3x normal volume (and RCB in effect) and down 10% IMO where there is smoke there is fire. There is a reason we just don't nkow it ywte. A forward PE of 30 may be a reason. Stock is just too expensive here.
"There are still about a third of the employees...."
Reminds me of the old joke:
Two people are walking past the huge main Post Office in Washington DC and one asks
"How many people work here?"
"About a third" says the other.
" that unless the last few weeks convinced them that there was a permanent decline in the business, they could easily have gone to .02. "
So why the .019? Seems neither here nor there.
"They may have incurred higher costs than expected"
Two possible areas: Higher basil prices due to CA drought, Higher egg prices due to bird flu.
Agree they have done well and will continue to do so IMO. Just don't wan't to have irrational expectations (like .021 = 16% increase).
Note that a .01 special would also fund the diff between .019 and ,020 for 10 qrtrs. So I don't see a special but maybe .020 in less than the usual year.
That wouldn't make any sense. Even a modest .005 special would use more money than making the regular div .020 for the next 4 qtrs. And they would have to lay it all out up front.
So I read it as follows:
- they raised the div because everyone expected it and was also justififed
- they are being conservative
- 2 months of Q3 are known and the last month is likely in place and maybe not a good as expected
- they want to dial down our expectation of Q3
- if things turn out better than they anticipated they can always raise the div sooner than 12 months.
Although you made a good case for .021 (I expected .020) they did .019. Are they telling us to lower Q3 expectations?