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Armanino Foods of Distinction Inc. Message Board

bellbell63 310 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 1999
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  • Reply to

    call Cementation or PAL

    by the_truth_4 Dec 16, 2014 8:34 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 16, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    Do you really think either would give you a clear direct answer to the word "hired"? I would believe a "No".
    The word "engaged" was carefully chosen upon advice of counsel. Would you consider an RFP or RFQ as being "engaged"? What about a MOU? Or LOI? Until a contract is signed and money is exchanged they have not been "hired".

  • Reply to

    we go higher now....

    by techcrash09 Dec 16, 2014 8:49 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 16, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    With a new all time low guess the mkt does not agree with your analysis.

  • Reply to

    Huge offering coming

    by bellbell63 Dec 9, 2014 11:59 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 16, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    Cementation is a shaft driller . not a miner. Look at their website. PAL needs hands to mine existing ore - and contract labor is always more expensive than direct employees.

  • Reply to

    Huge offering coming

    by bellbell63 Dec 9, 2014 11:59 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 16, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    Look on SEDAR. And yes, why no PR? Good question!!!

  • Reply to

    When "engaged" means HIRED?

    by on_kelp_9 Dec 15, 2014 10:14 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 15, 2014 10:58 PM Flag

    Cementation is a driller , not a miner. Check their web site. An actual hire would be a material event and likely need a 8-K. Mnay things PAL says are ambiguos. How about the fleet replacment? Not one vehicle replaced.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Dec 15, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    Several posters have suggested that Russia will reverse sanction Pd. For a number of reasons I don’t think this will happen but for the sake of this post let’s will assume they will.

    IMO neither PAL nor SWC would be the way to play the resulting upward Pd move.

    In the case of PAL we really don’t know the true all-in cost of their Pd production. Would $850 make them profitable? $950? $1000? We just don’t’ know. Then there is the risk of another round of financing and/or a R/S or a complete re-capitalization hurting current stockholders. And the risk of poorer than expected production. I am not saying these things will happen, but if you are playing PD price why add these risks to the equation?
    IMO a better way would be Pd futures. Current margin requirement for a 100oz Pd contract is $4400 (or about 5.5%). There is no interest but be careful as an adverse move will trigger a margin call. On the upside a $100 move up will be 225% gain on the $4400.

    I would think if the Russians are planning to withhold Pd they would front-run their own intentions and buy the futures and sell them later after they announce PD shipments. So watch for an increase in long open positions.
    Futures are not for the faint of heart. It is easy to lose your entire investment.

    Other way would be PALL but the leverage is much less. (There are no PALL options)

  • Reply to

    SWC will benefit by the precious metals Boom!

    by auwindstorm Dec 9, 2014 5:37 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 14, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    "Moreover, with the Fed now close to the start of the rate tightening cycle ..."

    On the other hand rising interest rates causes the USD to rise, putting price pressure on Pd and other commodities.

  • Reply to

    Don't Fix It If It Ain't Broke

    by brainboy262 Dec 2, 2014 11:16 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 13, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    On cc mgt said Mco growth rate will slow to about 12% for a couple of years before returning to low 20's. As for Sco oil crash will hurt them short term. I still think all this was unnecessary, just a turf war imo. BEAV was in high 80's before split was announced. Now mid 70's.

  • Reply to

    Pd grades

    by bellbell63 Dec 11, 2014 4:18 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 12, 2014 11:56 PM Flag

    In a previous post you admitted to 1.3M at at least .25. So even if the other 500K you say you have was at .14 your average price is about .22 or a 144K loss. I would never call PAL an investment.

    GL

  • Reply to

    Gets better every day

    by bellbell63 Nov 17, 2014 7:54 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 12, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    Split is already "done". Parts are trading as
    KLXIV - Sco (when issued)
    BEAVV - Mco (ex-dist)

    So take BEAVV + 1/2 KLXIV and that should be = BEAV.

  • Reply to

    Pd grades

    by bellbell63 Dec 11, 2014 4:18 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 12, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    Bigsee4 – Thanks for your understanding. It’s sad that posters are so nasty that defense is needed.
    Unlike other posters:
    - I have never used any other id than bellbell63
    - I never make personal attacks
    - I try to justify my point of view with info from PR, rpts etc not just make guesses.
    - I never predict specific prices – just the direction
    - I am not in cahoots with FunTrader (used to be bigblue here a while ago)
    - I have been consistent in saying what happens at LDI more important than Pd price. Pd price has been all over the place – PAL less than .02 from all time low.
    I have been bearish on PAL for several years even before the BAM loan. It was on the basis of production, cash burn, development progress and constantly changing mining plan. I can’t take any big credit for predicting the (BAM) financing because it was too obvious that some financing was crucial. As it is again now. The market has not been impressed with the recent PR. Since it seems positive, lack of positive response means either no one takes it at face value or too little too late. Dollar volume of a mere 125K means it’s all retail, not institutional.
    PAL may someday make money, but it will not be the PAL as capitalized today. Current stockholders will never benefit from any future success.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 12, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Often orders are filled in multiple lots from different MMs. If the price is the same and the times are very close it is likely one order.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Dec 12, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    SBG now up to 702Koz
    ABSA now 480Koz down from 512Koz

  • Reply to

    Tide is turning

    by bayside0218 Dec 12, 2014 6:48 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 12, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    Where are they going to get the $170M to pay the loan? Current payments are interest only, no principal. Full 170M (USD) is still outstanding.

  • Reply to

    Pd grades

    by bellbell63 Dec 11, 2014 4:18 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 11, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    My question still stands. If you don't not like what I say, please put me on ignore. Looks like very few took the PR bait today. As far as misleading , look at PdT.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Dec 11, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    Look at page 7 of the latest Nov presentation. What happened to the 4+ g/t stuff?

  • Reply to

    PR : RAMP UP RESULTS AND ACTIVITY!

    by maxben111 Dec 11, 2014 7:35 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 11, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    Why should they? There is no risk of losing to another because of pre-payment penalties. FYI- Prepaymen penalty is all the interest that BAM would have earned if loan was held to maturity payable in a lump sum. So PAL is locked into BAM 15%. So a re-fi would cost PAL the BAM 15% plus the new loan %. If this seems crazy, it is - read the loan agreement.
    Won't matter since IMO BAM is going to offer to swap the debt for equity - hence the need for a registration. They then will own 75% , can do whatever they want including taking PAL private thus depriving current stockholders of any future successes.

  • Reply to

    PR : RAMP UP RESULTS AND ACTIVITY!

    by maxben111 Dec 11, 2014 7:35 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 11, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    Becasue of prepayment penalty there is no advantage to re-fi. In fact, re--fi will increase their interest costs. Read the loan agreement.

  • Reply to

    Huge offering coming

    by bellbell63 Dec 9, 2014 11:59 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 10, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    Last paragraph of the article:

    NAP is aiming to have a preliminary economic assessment completed by the first quarter of 2015, followed by a pre-feasibility study for the third quarter. Then if they start in 2016 it will be at least 2018. Whole article is pie-in-the sky. First they have to survive Q4.

  • Reply to

    Huge offering coming

    by bellbell63 Dec 9, 2014 11:59 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Dec 10, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    With what money? And how many years? With PAL "engaged " can mean anything. When I see a PR with the word "contract" and numbers I will believe it. Right now it is just an interview and PAL can claim a misunderstanding. And there are BAM limits on capex. Don't fight the tape.

AMNF
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