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Armanino Foods of Distinction Inc. Message Board

bellbell63 289 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Apr 25, 1999
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  • Reply to

    PD price

    by bellbell63 Jun 18, 2015 11:55 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 18, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Well, you know my stance on PD - long term bear. Time after time the reasons for price rise never come to fruition. No one looks at the long term bear factors of which there are several. I have not seen an original thought about PD macro issues for a couple of years.

    I didn't say 600 was imminent , just that as I read the TeA leaves if 700 breaks next support is 600. How long it will take to test this support ? Who knows, maybe never happens. Right now, showing the various time scale charts to someone and asking them their buy/sell/hold opinion (not telling them they are charts of PD) and what do you think the answers will be?

    As for a 100 to 300koz deficient , IMO that is just background noise considering funds hold between 2 and 3 M oz at least and the downward macro issues.

  • Reply to

    Bigger players

    by bellbell63 Jun 18, 2015 11:45 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 18, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    Unknown. Just seem to be bigger players today. Unusual to see bids/offers for more than 5000 shares. No news expected until Q2 earnings in mid-July.

  • Reply to

    Molycorp has real products that do sell

    by lusongshu Jun 18, 2015 11:09 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 18, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    The Siemens "deal" is not directly with Siemens. MCP supplies REE to a Japanese company which turns it into the products Siemens needs. The Japaneses company probably adds the most value and will benefit the most. Who makes more money - they guy who sells wholesale cheese (2.25/lb) or the guy who sells ONE plain slice for 2.00?

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jun 18, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    IMO in dangerous territory. If 700 doesn't hold 600 is not out of the question - especially with a strong(er) dollar.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jun 18, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    Seem to be some bigger players around today. 2.30 x 2.31 19,000 x 10,000
    Maybe the bidder will get impatient and take 10K off the offer.

  • Reply to

    Magical thinking about North American Palladium

    by hanovi Jun 17, 2015 2:59 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 18, 2015 9:20 AM Flag

    "Bell will correct me and say it is every 3.5 seconds!"

    LOL As a fanatic for facts , the number in 2013 for the US was about 8.0 seconds. :-)

    What is interesting is that if you look at other destroyed stocks the message boards look exactly the same. Just change the symbol. MCP comes to mind. Stock down from $80 to .40 MCP history very similar to NAP - over budget, over schedule , underperforming projects, massive debt and mgt with no epts. The also faced a crash in the price of their products. Upcoming re-org there also.

    "When will the ever learn, when will they ever learn?"

  • Reply to

    Magical thinking about North American Palladium

    by hanovi Jun 17, 2015 2:59 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 17, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    Same enchantment with a penny stock. People like to say they own 100,000 shares (of anything). Doesn't matter that NAP will soon be under .01 So they pay .035 and hope.

  • Reply to

    What happens after 30/6?

    by klessheim1 Jun 15, 2015 9:07 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 15, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    It is very likely you will get more as a offset against gains than you will if you will hold it. If for example you bought at .50 you will have a .46 loss. In a 25% tax bracket that will be worth .12. PALDF would have to go to .16 to do as well as taking the loss. And if PALDF goes down more? The hardest part of investing is selling a losing stock - not only is it the money but the admission that you were wrong. That's what stops are for - to take the emotion out of it. GL

  • Reply to

    What happens after 30/6?

    by klessheim1 Jun 15, 2015 9:07 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 15, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    First of all you will "get" nothing. You will keep the shares you have but additional shares will be issued to BAM and the deb holders so that current stockholders will then hold 2% of PAL vs the 100% they now hold. That would be a 50:1 dilution. It would not be unreasonable for the stock to then trade well under .01. Concurrent with this dilution there will be a reverse split - could be anywhere from 1:10 to 1:40 so when it happens the price mayl look higher but you will have many less shares.

    Also it doesn't matter how many shares holders there are but the number of shares they hold.

  • Reply to

    Contract rejected

    by bellbell63 Jun 11, 2015 8:47 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 13, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    I agree. If 730 doesn't hold then 700 looks like next support and then I see nothing until 600. Strong dollar is a continuing headwind. Wonder how close the vote was.

  • Reply to

    Contract rejected

    by bellbell63 Jun 11, 2015 8:47 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 12, 2015 11:23 PM Flag

    I don't like a bonus tied only to something not under miners' control. If PD tanks can lead to bad feeling.
    A two pronged bonus tied to oz produced and Pd price (with a floor) might be better. But that is very close to profit sharing bonus which might be the simpler solution.

  • Reply to

    Some more info

    by bellbell63 Jun 12, 2015 3:36 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 12, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    I didn't mention it (or anything else) because I have no first hand knowledge. Just quoting the CBC article. You beef is with them (and NAP for not releasing info that clarifies (!) the situation).

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jun 12, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    cbc DOT CA /news/canada/thunder-bay/lac-des-iles-tailings-pond-overflow-raises-concerns-1.3104275

    "The Ministry of the Environment says the release so far involves 120,000 cubic metres of water, with elevated levels of suspended solids, aluminum and iron."

    For those metrically challenged 120,000 cubic meters is 31.7 million gallons = 120M liters

  • Reply to

    Tic... Toc... Tic... Toc...

    by the_truth_4 Jun 12, 2015 12:05 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 12, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    No thanks, we have gotten plenty of schist from NAP mgt.

  • Reply to

    Tic... Toc... Tic... Toc...

    by the_truth_4 Jun 12, 2015 12:05 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 12, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    More likely just 2% of a lump of coal. At current coal prices that will be about .001

  • Reply to

    Divvy

    by bellbell63 Jun 10, 2015 1:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 11, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Announced regular .018 Ex-div date should be 6/30.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jun 11, 2015 8:47 AM Flag

    BILLINGS, Mont., June 11, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Stillwater Mining Company (SWC) reported today that union employees at the Company's Stillwater Mine and Columbus processing facility, represented by the USW International Union Local 11-0001, have failed to ratify the tentative labor agreement reached on May 27, 2015. The Negotiating Committee for the Union and the representative for USW International had unanimously recommended that their members approve the tentative agreement. ....

  • Reply to

    Summaryof twice deleted post

    by bellbell63 Jun 7, 2015 10:16 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 10, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    Stock hanging in there around .04 Any negative PR and it will be .02 as fast as you can say #$%$.

  • Reply to

    Summaryof twice deleted post

    by bellbell63 Jun 7, 2015 10:16 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Jun 10, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    From 2/15 PR
    Capital expenditures in 2015 are expected to be less than $37 million and will include approximately:

    $11 million for underground development;
    $13 million on the tailings management facility;
    $5 million on mobile and production equipment; and
    $8 million for all other expenditures.

    Note that biggest item is TMF up from $5M one year earlier (see below)

    =================

    From Jan 2014

    With Phase I of the mine expansion now completed, the 2014 capital expenditure program for LDI has been substantially reduced to under $30 million. Key expenditures from the program include $11 million for capital development, $5 million to expand the tailings management facility,

    Note $5M for TMF.
    =============================
    From 2014 annual

    In 2013:

    • Capital expenditures totaled $109.5 million with $91.8 million spent of the LDI mine expansion, and an
    additional $20.5 million spent primarily on the tailings management facility.

    ============

    In summary
    $20M for TMF in 2013
    $5M in 2014 cap budget
    $13M planned in 2015 (bet that is way up now)

    So TMF has been a know issue for quite a while. 2014 looks like an underspend maybe because of lack of money.

    For everyones sake hope this doesn't become another Mt Polly.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Jun 10, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    I expect announcement tomorrow - unchanged at .018, no special. Increase next time.

AMNF
2.40+0.02(+0.84%)Jul 30 3:57 PMEDT