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Armanino Foods of Distinction Inc. Message Board

bellbell63 385 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 5 minutes ago Member since: Apr 25, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Emotion and Fear

    by justinjennrich Sep 18, 2014 2:04 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 19, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    I do not like averaging down. Just throwing good money after bad unless you SURE, really SURE the drop is just a temporary blip in a GOOD stock. Think of those who averaged down at .80 , .70 , 60 , .50 , .40 , .30 , 20 etc.
    And most people do not average down properly. They share average when they should dollar average. For example if you bought 1000 #$%$ $5 and stock is now $2.5 the correct way to average down is to buy another $5000 worth (2000 shares). Now your average (breakeven) price is 3.33 (+21% over 2.50). If it ever gets back to $5 you make $5000. If you share average buying another 1000 #$%$ 2.5 your average price is 3.75 (50% over 2.50) and if gets back to $5 your profit is only $2500 half of what you could have made by dollar averaging.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 19, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    Whomever bosted that they bought 1.4M shares at .25 + seems to have removed that post - too embarrassing?

    Well you now have a 70K loss. Oh.... I know you sold it all at .27 good move!!!!!! LOL

  • Reply to

    Still going sideways

    by bellbell63 Sep 19, 2014 9:54 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 19, 2014 8:35 PM Flag

    One of their biggest commodity costs could be energy - cooking, refrigeration, freezing, transportation especially in CA where electricity costs are high. Some of that would be borne by any co-packers but might be passed on to AMNF.

    .035 seems high. I think .033 which would be 18% YoY and 10% sequential qtrs.

    Expect report to be Oct 18th around noon - 2 PM

    2014 wholesale basil prices
    1 lb film bags
    CA 3.00-3.75

    2013
    09/19/2013 2.50 - 3.00 CALIFORNIA

    Looks like basil prices higher this year at least for California variety basil.

    marketnews.usda
    DOT GOV
    /portal/fv?&repType=termPriceDaily&paf_dm=full&movNavClass=&commAbr=BASIL&lastLocation=&displaySort=&rowDisplayMax=25&lastCommodity=&startIndex=26&varName=&organic=&paf_gear_id=1200002&y=7&x=12&locName=&navClass=&previousVal=&commName=BASIL&repDate=09%2F19%2F2014&resultSetItems=YES&termNavClass=&environment=&shipNavClass=&dr=1

    Isn't the internet amazing!!!!!

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 20, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    "Keep in mind the average market return is only approximately 15%. "
    Compared to the NEGATIVE 40% compound 10 year PAL return.
    Or the one year -80% return.

    " Recall all the bashers, who waste their time scaring rookie investors"
    Rookie investors don't belong in PAL.

    Have heard all the same arguments from $1 all the way to (under) .20.

    The one thing that PAL has to do to get out of this mess is get production up quickly. And that is the one thing they don't seem to be able to do.

    "This stock requires a great deal of patience. NAP might be a quarter (or two) behind its production numbers, but they will reach 5,000 tpd and will begin to mine at a profit."
    So you now are suggesting that they might not reach 5000TPD until a couple of qtrs past the stated target of YE 2014? I agree. If the were making any progress in Jul or Aug they surely would PR it to show they are going in the right direction from the Q2 2950TPD.

    " Remember that the biggest gains are when false rumors of bankruptcy is within the market"
    Well rumors can't be true or false otherwise they wouldn't be rumors but facts. Prediction of BK by some are based on production, debt load costs and cash on hand.

    Q3 will tell more of the story.

  • Reply to

    Thank you Bears

    by beanbaghesg Sep 21, 2014 8:46 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 21, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    " And that does not validate your claim that he sold all his shares because records indicate that in the last 12 months no one has sold at all".

    Your dd needs some improvement.

    Look in the site Canadian Insider. Use symbol PDL (the TSX symbol) not PAL. Gallagher has indeed sold 145,000 sh on Sep 2 and Sep 3 September. Is it possible the COO knows more than you? With such a vote of no confidence how can he continue to work for PAL?

    Sep 3/14 Sep 3/14 Gallagher, James Elvin Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -3,000 $0.305
    Sep 3/14 Sep 2/14 Gallagher, James Elvin Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -112,000 $0.305
    Sep 2/14 Sep 2/14 Gallagher, James Elvin Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -27,000 $0.300
    Sep 2/14 Aug 29/14 Gallagher, James Elvin Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -3,000 $0.300

  • Reply to

    Still going sideways

    by bellbell63 Sep 19, 2014 9:54 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 22, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    You are correct about the div. But that makes my point even stronger - 28% increase in div didn't move the stock. Two excellent qtrs didn't move the stock.
    There seems to be a persistent seller that is willing to take 1.80-1.90. With any large holding like a mf or inst may have it could take months to get out. Until he (they) are gone, upwards progress will be tough.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Sep 22, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    If you missed the PAL movie, you can see a re-run at MCP. Once $75,now $1.30.
    Projects behind schedule, over budget and under performing. And just got $200M financing from Oaktree Capital.

  • Reply to

    STILL no short squeeze?

    by coopsie_daisy Sep 22, 2014 11:24 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 22, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    Whenever a stock goes down it's the fault of:

    - Market makers
    - shorts (naked and otherwise)
    - funds and instit wanting cheap stock
    - "they"
    - too many sunspots
    - not enough sunspots
    - weak hands

    When it goes up it's wise investors buying.
    Well maybe now it's wise investors selling.

    Maybe you bought the wrong stock at the wrong time and held it too long.

  • Reply to

    What would be pal after yrs?

    by t_baroi Sep 22, 2014 1:50 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 22, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    PAL 173M BAM debt comes due June 2017. So in three years (Sep 2017) PAL may not exist as we know it today.

    I would suggest that the Q3 report is a turning point. Unless there is a significant upturn in TPD there is little upside short or long term. They keep guiding 5000 TPD by end of 2014. PD has come down under $800 and with it comes increased losses for PAL. After 2950 TPD in Q2, Q3 better show at least 3500 TPD. Q3 cash balance will be worrisome. PdT says extension of shaft is needed to realize full potential of LDI. Where is that money coming from? At these prices equity financing not possible and who would lend then money now with $173M of senior debt ahead of them.

    July, Aug TPD are surely known by now. How about some disclosure? Maybe they are too busy making up the Q3 excuse list to have time to add 30 numbers and divide by 30.

  • Reply to

    What would be pal after yrs?

    by t_baroi Sep 22, 2014 1:50 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 22, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    "Check out their Historical Prices by the month, check back 3 yrs. to get an idea where it will be yrs from now. "
    What makes you think that?
    Some differences
    - three years they didn't have debt of $200M+
    - what loans they had were not at 15% three years ago
    - three years ago outstanding shares were less than half what they are today.
    - they have been in a steady downtrend last three years. What magic will turn it around?
    - PD average price for 2014 looks like it will be only about 12% more than 2011.

    A body in motion will continue in motion unless there is something that changes it.
    Right now PAL's motion is down PD spike to $900 didn't change it.
    Your wishing won't change it. Must buy? Tomorrow will be a new all time low as well.

    Get through Q3 then talk about years.

    Oh, by the way, what ever happened to the highly touted Cowboy, Outlaw and Sherriff zones?

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    What would be pal after yrs?

    by t_baroi Sep 22, 2014 1:50 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 22, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    "Next Quarter will be a good one"
    Not according to the cc. My guess same -.02 to -.04/share. Maybe closer to -.02 because of more shares outstanding.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Sep 24, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Couple of months old but contains good info.

    nornik
    DOT RU
    /assets/files/1N-2014-Production(ENG).pdf

    My overall take is that Russian PGM output quite robust. (not to be confused with any releases from state owned strategic stockpiles).

  • Reply to

    Norilsk H1

    by bellbell63 Sep 24, 2014 2:43 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 24, 2014 5:55 PM Flag

    "What has my attention regarding Norilsk, today, is their statement about being in talks with the government to buy $2 B worth of Pd (or exchange it for Pt) so that..."

    That is about 2.3M oz (from a stockpile that has been rumored to be almost gone?

    Bullish is that Norilsk may have delivery problems and has to buy PD from the govt depletinig the strategic stockpile.
    Bearish in that the govt has that much (and how much more?) to sell them.

  • Reply to

    Norilsk H1

    by bellbell63 Sep 24, 2014 2:43 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 24, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    Also:
    Potanin said several traders, including Swiss-based giants Glencore and Trafigura, as well as Japanese trading house Mitsui had expressed interest in taking part in a project to develop the Bystrinskoe copper deposit in Russia's Zabaikalsk region."

    Hmmmm! How about a copper "mine" in South America instead. :-)

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 26, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    Like a weatherman whose forecast would improve if they looked out the window, CNBC gurus would be better if the looked at the tape and market.

    Look at Kitco PD charts and you will see Pd clearly in a downtrend.

  • Reply to

    Shareholder return

    by bellbell63 Sep 17, 2014 3:21 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 26, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    "I agree it is a good idea to pay off the debt."

    Their remaining debt is under 2% interest rate" No rush to pay that off. Paying that off would use up most of their cash. Not a good idea.

    And many thumbs down on your govt conspiracy theory to depress Pd prices.
    You've been reading too many novels.
    Lining your hat with tin foil wsill prevent the alien rays from putting strange thought in you head.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Sep 26, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    The two SA ETFs now hold 1,007,000 oz.
    In the last month PALL holdings down by about 34K and SA Etfs up by about 43K. Divergence still puzzle me.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 26, 2014 10:51 PM Flag

    Strong dollar accounted for only about $4 of the decline. Pd down 3.14% but other metals much less so can;t be explained solely by dollar. You are theoretically correct but you really should look at the numbers to see how much.

  • Reply to

    AMNF is the Latest Pick at PennyStocksWeekly

    by jasontryer Sep 26, 2014 10:01 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 26, 2014 11:09 PM Flag

    Computer generated spam message on many many boards. Checked the site and no mention of AMNF. I think ex-div date is Thur Oct 1 so whomever did the buying will gets the div if they hold until COB Wednesday.

  • Reply to

    When are they reporting

    by nomcondo Sep 27, 2014 1:56 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Sep 27, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Dream on. They have guided 5000 by THE END of 2014. For PAL that means by Dec 31,2014 they hope to have lifted 5000TPD on at least one day. Last report was Q2 they were lifting 2960 TPD. My guess for Q3 maybe 3400 TPD. Formal Q3 reports is second week of Nov. They may give a preliminary production report earlier although I do not see one last year. Since Jul, Aug TPD are known, why not PR them? Guess they are not good enough to brag about. With PAL "no news" is "bad news".

    No way I see them lifting 5000 TPD consistently even in Q1/2015. The have never, repeat never, met any milestone they have put forth. There are always excuses.

AMNF
2.050.00(0.00%)12:31 PMEST

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