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Armanino Foods of Distinction Inc. Message Board

bellbell63 336 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 31, 2015 12:59 PM Member since: Apr 25, 1999
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  • Reply to


    by bellbell63 Nov 1, 2014 12:13 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 1, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    They're back!!!!!! It only takes 2,765,125 PD atoms to power a city the size of Cleveland so Pd usage in CF is tiny.

  • Apr 23 "I am told that there were 31 layoffs, they were all salaried managerial positions."

    May 1
    "Stillwater Mining Company on Thursday confirmed 35 people were laid off in Montana in April.
    The company is expected to save $4.3 million with the layoffs.
    Mick McMullen, the company's president and chief executive officer, discussed mine operations and strategy during their first quarter investors conference call.
    The company is also asking for 50 volunteer separations to reduce costs. That offer is available for some support staff, not miners."

    MAy 4
    "The company said last week that 48 non-union, salaried workers had been laid off. Voluntary buyouts are being offered to as many as 50 hourly union workers, although McMullen said the number accepting offers could be fewer."

    Q2 conf call
    "During 2014, so far, to date, we have restructured 48 salaried positions. 35 of those have been in Montana, 9 at Marathon in Canada and for 4 at Altar in Latin America.

    7/31 PR
    "In furthering this objective we may reduce production for a time in order to bypass unprofitable stopes until we have the appropriate infrastructure in place to maximize profitability."

    (reassignment of miners not layoffs)

    I am 100% behind their focus on reducing costs by more selective mining, G/A reduction and less ex/dev costs.
    Over the last few years the mining sector has overspent and ignored costs. $1200 is marginal for many gold producers.

    SWC is in good financial position (500M cash) and LT debt at under 2% unlike some other N.A. company.

  • Reply to

    Layoff history (from various sources)

    by bellbell63 Nov 2, 2014 1:21 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 3, 2014 7:39 AM Flag

    I believe SWC has about 1700 employees. Fifty confirmed and maybe 50 more IMO do not constitute "drastic lay-offs". Some were Peregrine and Marathon related and have no effect on US operations. Really don't see where there will be any lost efficiency. In fact, seeing the guy in the desk next to you gone may enhance productivity. We'll see Wed.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Nov 3, 2014 8:01 AM Flag

    "The deepest platinum-palladium mines in the world are on the Merensky Reef, in South Africa, with a resource of 203 million troy ounces, currently worked to approximately 2,200 m (7,200 ft) depth."

    The lower offset zone is located from 1000 to 1700M deep. I doubt very much if PAL has the expertise to successfully develop and mine at those depths. They will be way over their heads.

  • Reply to

    I'm Buying on Monday 3 Nov 14

    by investmenot Nov 2, 2014 2:42 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 3, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    Reliable sources say PZ would take 2 years to bring into production if they started today.

    I don't get too excited about new zones - remember the exciting Sheriff, Cowboy and Outlaw zones?

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 3, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    " I agree PAL should have its own smelting capabilities and they should also be looking into recycling palladium as it has large margins

    Building a smelter takes much money, permits, etc. Keep focus on Pd mining. Recycling is very competitive business and requires fast, accurate assaying (SWC is automated) of incoming material so supplier can be paid quickly. Once again , focus time, mgt and money on Pd mining. That is the only hope.

  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 3, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    " report scattered high grade intersections in their drilling results. It is continuity and consistency that matters for mining"

    Exactly!!!! A single intersection does not indicate exactly how to mine that vein. All it is is an intersection at that particular place. Which way the vein goes and surrounding width are not known from a single intersection. And mining narrow veins (under 30 feet) comes with significant dilution.

    Imagine large 5ftx5ft 10ft thick cheesecake with steaks and veins of chocolate. You want the chocolate so you push an empty straw into the cake, withdraw it and examine what you see. But these straws are expensive and you can only dip a straw every 5 inches. You may see a tasty intersection but it does not give you enough info as to the 3-D structure of the chocolate. Now comes the frustrating part - when you mine you can only do it with a tablespoon, scooping lots of poor stuff along with the chocolate. If you could afford (in time and money and equipment) you would make lots of closely spaced holes. PAL property while rich is tough to develop.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Nov 3, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    Sitting right at $800 resistance. Strong USD a $4.00 /oz headwind today alone. Close over $800 would be very positive.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Nov 3, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    Still puzzled as SA ETFs continue to increase holdings to 1.17M oz and PALL steady to down. Somehow the tea leaves say the SA mines might be involved.

    How about this:

    SA mine goes to SA ETF and buys $4M (about 5000oz worth) of NEW debs backed by Pd.
    ETF now needs to get 5000 oz to back these new debs which they buy from that same mine. Mine uses that money to pay for the debs. So far a wash as far as the mine is concerned.
    Mine now sells the debs on the open market.

    Net result - mine has sold 5000 oz without it going to the open market thus not depressing price or contributing to supply.

    Seems what I describe FORCES the SA ETF to buy the Pd thud keeping it off the market.

  • Reply to

    Calm before the storm

    by geofyte Nov 4, 2014 10:39 AM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 4, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    1) What is the all in cash cost before and after by-product credits.
    --- Don't expect an answer to that
    2) Is there positive cash flow (CF) in Q3? If not, was there positive cash generated in September?
    ---Adjust what might be negative CF for the non-recurring 23M payment to BAM.
    3) Is the current production level enough to generate positive cash flow consistently going forward, without making very optimistic Pd price estimation.
    ---No if current = 3000TPD. Maybe if 5000TPD but not until 2015.
    4) If there is no positive CF forth coming in the near future, how long before they have to borrow again?
    --- Good question grasshopper.
    5) Has the management been able to generate confidence with any financial institutions that can offer lower interest than the high risk/high interest lenders.
    --- Doesn't matter. Penalty on prepayment (should they find other financing) is the interest that would have been earned by BAM (until the end of the loan) on the amount prepaid. No point in prepaying.
    6) How is the ground holding up as they mine deeper? Are they getting a lot of caving that dilutes UG ore? In general, based on current performance do they see any bottlenecks in the ore handling that will limit ore from UG to less than 5000 tpd?
    --- There are bottlenecks when transferring ore from shaft storage hopper to the trucks that take ore to the mill.
    7) What makes current exploration plays different from the ones they were excited about last year that came to nothing?
    --- Because this is a transition year and next year will be better. (This is a recorded message). Remember the highly touted Sheriff, Cowboy and Outlaw zones? Ignore any drill results in the lower offset zone. LOF is not reachable without many $$$$$ and time to extend shaft, build access ramps,loading pocket,develop stopes,install a crusher.....years away.
    That is, how will they mine the near surface ore?
    --- Near surface Power Zone ore will take about 2 years to bring into production.

  • Reply to

    Large block today

    by monger8088 Nov 4, 2014 12:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 4, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    Most likely that was a negotiated cross as a mkt or 1.90 limit order would have intermediate prices on the way down. That's why didn't really affect anything. Buyers have moved in and last was 2.01x2.04 with some nice buying at 2.04.

  • Reply to

    PAL is easily a $ .05 stock

    by palsucksbucks Nov 3, 2014 10:00 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 4, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    " the assets in the ground are what matter"
    What good is $1B of Pd in the ground if it costs $1.2B to get it out?

  • Reply to

    Large block today

    by monger8088 Nov 4, 2014 12:27 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 4, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    But more likely it could be a cross not involving the MM , just two parties agreeing off mkt to make that deal. But it has to be reported on the tape.

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  • bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 4, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    News may have leaked to a select few...why else would the price have spiked up like that yesterday?

  • Reply to

    PAL is easily a $ .05 stock

    by palsucksbucks Nov 3, 2014 10:00 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 4, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    " This stock was 7-10 dollars with palladium a little over $200 now it's $800 and here it is at .15"

    That should tell you something. PAL has changed - now $200M in high interest debt, cost up from $250(open pit days) to maybe all-in $800-900,
    378M shares outstanding vs maybe 1/3 that when 7-10.

    PAL is not the same company it was when it was 7-10. Mkt reflects that.
    Look more at the company than mythical manipulators.

  • Reply to

    Last chance?

    by bigsee4c Nov 4, 2014 3:23 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 4, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    Been in/out SWC 3 times today and made a grand total of $2. :-)
    No net new position today, just will put my 7k under the pillow and (try) to sleep on it.
    PAL holders seem nervous. Up to almost .19 now back to .165
    $800 PD still resistance.

    GLTA. See you AM.

  • Reply to

    Last chance?

    by bigsee4c Nov 4, 2014 3:23 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 4, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    Agree. Never understood those who say a .50 stock is going to $10 but won't pay the asked when the quote is .50-.51 If they really believe going to $10 what diff does .01 make? Or even .05?
    I call these people oxen.

  • bellbell63 by bellbell63 Nov 4, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    On cc they said the seat growth would slow from 24% to low teens for a couple of years.
    Now crashing oil prices may put some frackers and other oil drillers on the sidelines hurting Sco.

  • Reply to

    5% refi would be big!

    by rjdubo Nov 4, 2014 4:40 PM
    bellbell63 bellbell63 Nov 4, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    They can't refi because of pre-payment penalties. If they pre-pay they end up paying interest on the old loan AND the new one. So stop dreaming. (FYI: The number is about 7M/qtr not 40m) They are stuck with this loan until 2017.

2.05-0.02(-0.97%)Jan 30 2:21 PMEST

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