In the May 2016 Investor presentation (p19) they say about Blitz
"First production expected in 2018 – 150,000 to 200,000 PGM ounces/year when fully ramped"
As usual in the mining industry I would say late 2018.
I rarely reply to really shallow posts but ...
"SWC has been going up nearly every day."
In last 20 trading days 10 UP , 10 down. Not nearly "nearly"
I assume you like ETC with SWC exposure is you expect SWC to rise sharply. The ETF with largest SWC exposure that I found were XME and PSCM both with about 4%. So if you expect SWC to rise why
de-leverage by 25:1? And you will be weighed down by iron and steel and other base metals.
If you expect SWC to rise you must expect PD to rise so why not buy PALL ETF instead?
Or create your own PD stock exposure ETF - PLG, SWC, PALDF and some SA miners.
Just before breakup was announced BEAV was about $90.
Now your $90 is worth $46+(1/2) x $30 = $61. All split did was make it easier to shine the spotlight on each parts' problems. Stockholders have paid the price for an internal turf war (and still have Khoury who is CEO of and COB of both).
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"ETFs? I can't see reason for much further sell-off in ETFs -- that seems to be about done. "
Wasn't thinking about a sell-off, their holdings are way down. Just that they can be a market mover if investment sentiment changes but I see that as unlikely. I feel that Pd ETF were sort of a fad and going forward will not be a factor.
I read some of the London stuff, particularly JM Pd outlook. Too many i's and maybes to draw any investment grade conclusions. Seems ETF and recycling may be the major drivers but no one knows what those segment will do. PD chart is on downtrend , test of 540,520 coming.
And I am really getting tired of hearing about Pd deficits.
Unless Pd recover there is no chance. Turnaround from -18% for 5 years to +22 % in the next 5 depends upon PM prices. IMO SWC has picked the low hanging cost savings fruit. Blitz is several years away from production. Sure if Pd goes to 1000 then maybe but the chance of that happening IMO is close to 0. Irrational expectations that are not (can't) be met is a recipe for stock decline.
AWK does not manufacture pipes, pumps, filtration systems etc. When it comes to performing an upgrade it is likely they ask for RFQ from local contractors to do the work. Their operations are too spread out to have permanent crews to do the work like NY Con-Ed can. Look on their website under About Us/footprint.
"So long as I have sufficient cash on hand, I prefer to not try to pick the absolute bottom on a single trade."
I'm sure we all have found that picking the bottom is very rare. So what is the entry strategy when you do not have much cash behind (as the poker plays would say). I have done the following at times: Suppose I think 7.50 is a acceptable entry point. Since with high probability that is not the low I will buy at 7.50 on the way up. I still pay 7.50 but at least momentum in on my side.
I rarely avg down even if I have the cash. Prefer to avg up and sleep better.
" SWC @ $ 10.00 equates to putting money in the bank at 0%"
Really? It would seem there is significant downside risk at $10. Since I think PD headed lower to test 540 then 520 short term future for SWC is not bright. With Fed hike likely soon , dollar will resume rise and PM's under pressure again. Maybe sell July $9 covered calls?
"It is likely a race to who can extract and produce first which will be the one he invests in or buys outright."
He needs Li NOW and none of these junior can deliver an ounce. So he will get LI now from one of the majors - ABL, SQL,FMS and Talison.
Because none of the above is producing an ounce of Li. There are 3 very MAJOR producers of Li he can turn to before having to develop his own mine. He is making his own batteries because there is no other source that can meet his needs. Not so with Li. TSLA has to be concerned with qty and reliability of delivery and ABL, SQM and FMC can meet his needs. Clearly he knows that since he needs Li now and PE (or any other junior) will not deliver an ounce for at least 3 years. Makes more sense for him to sign a firm take-off contract with ABL.
They invested in an gasfield water service company not an oil company.
Per cc it will be earnings neutral and cash flow positive in 2016.
In any event it is a very tiny part of their operation. Think you have made a mistake by selling.
Maybe under $6 and hope for one of your bull wildcard for a trade. But other than that not really. I think Pd flat to down for the rest of the year. I think Bear 2 (if you mean metals) and Bear 3 are most likely. Bull 2 and 3 I have never put much credence in. Pd chart IMO took a very bearish turn last few days , lower low and H/S pattern. Could test $540.
To be honest, I am not surprised at 9.50, I was more surprised at 12.50. Given the lower Q1 metal prices that seemed rather optimistic. At current prices SWC I estimate they are just about breaking even. It comes down to what you think Pd will be in 12 -24 months. SWC can run indefinitely at these prices as they have plenty of cash.