Don't think it will matter much. Looks weak today. Have sold the 8/16 95 (covered) calls at 3.70. I think this is just going sideways waiting for the company split Q1/2015. Sideways = sell covered calls.
"Every once in a while, the bidders disappear (or someone crudely sells 10K at the market) and you see a quote like 1,82 -1.95.
Today at 11:19 looks like someone sold 10,000 at the market. Bid at the time was 1.99 and order drove price down to 1.87. Someone with a low-ball open order got a bargain. Now back to 2.00-2.01. Seller still there - who sold 8285 at the bid but good news - bid absorbed it.
Would be nice if AMNF paid for full Level 2.
Whether it was the news, terms, buyers reaction or whatever - financing is rarely greeted positively. If I were long and really expected a T3 can't see why I would continue to hold. But I don't think a T3 is imminent. Maybe around Q4. Look carefully at cash position and make "to date" adjustments. Low stock price is really a problem - to raise a modest $50M that's another 167M shares (or shares issued when the T3 buyers convert). That would make it more than one half BILLION shares. That's an ugly divisor when calculating EPS. Sooner or later one would think they would do a R/S just for cosmetic reasons. But in my experience R/S destroys shareholder value for a number of reasons.
Plenty of shares if you are just willing to pay .0001 more (30.00 vs .2999). If you are not willing to do that you are not a bull , but an ox.
They said that Q1 was affected by bad weather so Q2 may be larger than "normal" as suppliers catch up. On the other hand as suppliers of scrap watched the price rise maybe they held back in hope of higher prices. If the price levels off for any length of time, recycling in Q3 would be high as weather related backlog and held-back suppplies would hit. Their contract with JM started July 1 and don't know the effect of JM being able to funnel any scrap to them. To many cross currents to try and predict any one qtr. Maybe annual amounts - all of 2012 vs all of 2103 would be more meaningful as far a spotting a long term trend trend. Or maybe H1/3, H2/3 and H1/4,...
With my 105K of AMNF now comprising about 12% of my portfolio am not adding as It already exceeds my single stock guideline. I'll let it run but won't buy more.
Just keep this in mind:
Although the same dollar amount, losing your first million is much more painful than missing out on the second million.
At 72 have to be a bit more careful. Every once in a while, the bidders disappear (or someone crudely sells 10K at the market) and you see a quote like 1,82 -1.95. You can make the MM bidders' (computers) increase their bid. :-)
"There is indeed much stored in Switzerland,"
Sure is. In the last couple of months Russia has sent about 18 months worth of normal exports to Swiss. Not clear who is the owner of this Pd now - if Russia, any potential buyer can claim was exported before (possible) sanctions. If already sold, then they have evaded sanctions.
It still puzzles me why the largest auto manufacturer in EuroZ would support sanctions on a commodity vital to their auto industry. Haven't heard a word from the really big auto builder - Japan. As for China they will do what is best for China.
IMO weakness is the mediocre production report but financially, higher prices will cancel that out. Just be aware of Q2 charge of about 4MK pre-announced due to layoffs. Additional charge depending upon how many additional employees accept(ed) layoff package. Ex-special items Q2 may be a couple of pennies better than Q1.
Thanks for reading my post. When did you become the MB police? Don't like what I, say put me on ignore,
Unlikely for several reasons:
-Most of Russia PD is exported vai Switzerland. Eurozone has a lot to lose by Russian sanctions and they have shown no appetite for them, especially the Swiss.
- why would you sanction a commodity that is vital to OUR auto industry?
- PD such a small part of Russia exports that is would have little affect. Gas, oil would, but EUrozone would never go along with that.
- the takedown of Malaysia plane seems to have brought Putin to a little of his senses
It would nice for Pd, but wishes don't make it so.
They actually did have a Class I USDFA recall last Novemember and had little effect.
" I have wondered if maybe some of last year's ousted board or mgmt may be shorting against their own holdings, for tax purposes. "
"Shorting against the box" usually stops the clock as to tax advantages, For example, you have a large profit and have held for 11 months. If you short against the box to lock in profits and wait for 1 year LTCG rates, the LTCG clock stops.
Same thing if you have restricted stock that has to be sold using Rule 144 after a holding period - form specifically asks if you were hedged - if so the holding period clock stops during that time.
Also sometimes takes 10 minutes for messages to post. Y! MB really sad lately. Have tried others but very little posted.
Do you mean the processing of the smelter lining brick?
If so :
from q4 2013
The Company processed recycling material containing 120,000 ounces of palladium, platinum and rhodium through its smelter and refinery during the fourth quarter of 2013. This represents an increase of 1.2% over the total of 118,600 ounces processed during the fourth quarter of 2012. For the year ended December 31, 2013, the Company processed a record 616,700 ounces of recycled PGMs, a 38.5% increase from approximately 445,200 ounces processed during the same period of 2012. The increased volumes in 2013 were attributable to the addition of new suppliers of recycling material and ounces attributable to recycling from the ****reprocessing of furnace brick from the Company's own smelting facility.****
Seems like included in recycling.
If you are referrring to slag:
From Q1 2014
As a result of earlier constraints on reprocessing slag inventories at the Stillwater Mine, the Company now expects the benefit of PGMs resident in its slag inventories at the end of 2013 to be realized in second quarter 2014 sales.
So not reported yet.
Guess we will have to wait some more - at least another Q report. Report was good but stock is not cheap.
More sideways until Q3 report or divvy increase.