"“The companies are doing any and everything to minimize labor requirements – even if it costs more and is not good for the country.”
Maybe he meant upfront equipment expense (such as SWC TBM) and layoffs.
As far as shafts, I think he meant in older deeper mines.
"If you mean recent fluctuations above $850 are more about fears regarding Russia, rather than current fundamentals, I'll buy that.
Yes, that's what I mean. Since news and short term investment sentiment can change quickly, prices will be more volatile. Supply/demand fundamentals change much more slowly. Haven't heard anything specific about SA - what mines/shafts are not reopening or unhappiness with the agreement or is it back to business as usual just at higher cost.
FYI: SA ETF holdings have been unchanged for the last 10 days.
FYI: Mine runs 24/7 already. According to cc problems are mechanical not labor.
But then again you seem to be the expert. I remember your suggestion that to increase revenue they should increase production!!!!! Wow - never thought of that.
Kitco PD TA commentary suggest there has been a key reversal and the top is in.
Scroll down and click Palladium1
Starting with June=2900 TPD and using a monthly growth factor of 1.095 (9.5%) this is the path to 5000 TPD.
Month.........TPD.....TPD Increase over previous month
So Q3 had better be about 3490 TPD. SO if they don't track this or near to this they are either delusional about 5000TPD or worse.
One thing (of course) that I noted is that they also think Pd price is news related , not fundamental.
The other is that they believe that maximizing current operations is the way to go (as SWC is doing) rather than expanding , especially with new shafts (as PAL is doing).
Added to the jinx. Added another 30 Sep 18 @.35
Reminded me of my grandmother whose English was good but sometimes missed fine points.
She knew that an "s" sound meant plural. So, for a (single) jinx she would say "Don't put a jink on it"
Look at the red line (yesterday). Shortly after Zurich opened PD started dropping and stabilized after Zurich closed. Today (green line) PD looked firm until shortly after Zurich opened. My tea leaves tell me this is Russian liquidation of large stores in Switzerland they put there over the last 4 months or so.
Don't think so. The planned split is being poorly rcvd by the street-2 more price downgrades today. IMO there will be continued institutional sellling. My reasoning is this - if I were a fund with large holding I would sell now and buy back just the half I think was the better half. Gives me a chance to possibly double-up on the half I think has the better prospects.
For those who wait until after the split and then try to sell SCo they will be in line with all the others so why not sell now and wait.
"Physical inventory of Palladium is almost completely gone. "
And you know this how?
How about the 2-3M oz held by PD backed ETFs. If I needed PD I would buy shares in a ETF (50K shares PALL for example) and request redemption in Pd.
I didn't make any speculation as to SWC price, just Pd. If you look back over my posts you will see I never predict SWC stock prices. Too many irrational factors.
"palladium will continue rise toward $1,000 to offset the scale back."
Scaleback does not affect any current PD production. Scaleback is in an area that most of us had already written off as a non-starter. So has SWC as evidenced by layoffs in Marathon staff.
IMO PD will not reach $1000. Just no reason for it. ETF seem to have stopped buying a while ago. EUZone and Brazil (two big auto markets) are slipping. China say they will invest $16B in auto charging stations. I think their long term strategy is to limit growth of conventional gas cars. Several large cities in China have already rationed new auto registrations. Middle class are the auto buyers and they live in cities. Despite all the talk, sanctions (that would involve Pd) also seem to be a non-starter. Boycotting Russian vodka would probably hurt them more than Pd.
Agree that selloff seems overdone but the market is the market.
Noticed that the PD slide started soon after Zurich mkt opened. Wonder if Russians are liquidating the 18 months worth of Pd they shipped to Switzerland in the last few months.
Not 100% true. Higher prices may enable you to mine higher expense ore although still at a profit.
With PD at $900 you may now choose to mine additional ore that costs $850 where your normal mining cost for other ore is $800.
Another way - workers see high PD prices and high company profits and want higher wages.
Another way - subcontractors (like drillers) feel they can raise prices.
Life is not always as simple as it seems. :-)
That said, SWC has said that they are pursuing the most profitable ore, not just total ounces. So I don't see them chasing marginally profitable ore.
Everything entering the froth tanks is a fine powder (no "rocks"). The chemicals used change the hygroscopic nature of the powder, making it more likely the the metal bearing components in the dust adhere more to the rising air bubbles than rock powder. The froth (bubbles) are skimmed off the top and dried.
There is no chemical reaction. Yes, 20% of the PD is in the sludge (rock dust and metals) that don't float to the top. Some people who use floatation re-run the sludge through another float cycle (with different parameters) but not through the crusher part of the mill.
Why not just ask PAL if the "surface" ore is really virgin ore or just the froth tank residue re-run?
"EPS isn't as important as TPD or Pd oz. mined. "
Yes, in the short term (6 months) that's what people will watch. But sooner or later you have to show a real profit or you will eventually go out of business.
"Show us the money, Phil"!!!