"Following the successful completion of the Company's restructuring plan, President and CEO Phil du Toit and CFO David Langille tendered their resignations."
Should have read
:Following the successful completion of the Company's destruction plan, President and CEO Phil du Toit and CFO David Langille tendered their resignations.
Q3 will be distorted by the high volume milling of high grade UG ore raised in Q2. If costs for raising this ore were incurred in Q2 and rev in Q3, Q3 will be distorted upwards. Either we have to wait for Q4 or go back to Q1 and adjust for PD/CAD/BAM interest and see if the would have been CF positive.
And 13400 TPD at 50% duty cycle is 6700 TPD. They have never shown they can come close to that.
From OCt 1 SEC filing
"The Company’s shares trade on the TSX under the symbol PDL and on the
OTC Pink under the symbol PALDD."
They don't even know their correct OTC symbol - PALDF.
They are splitting the compnay, not the stock. You will keep your current shares and get some number of shares (not necessarily the same number) in the new company. AA will divulge what assets will be in each company. That morning the split is effective, the sum of the two prices will be the same as the one stock the night before. Then the market will determine the prices going forward depending upon how the steet evaluates the assets abd the business going forward. Same thing as happened to BEAV when they split into BEAV and KLXI.
After the split you then have a choice. You can
- do nothing and stay invested in both companies.
- sell either company and invest in the other depending upon whether you like upstream (mining) business or downstream (fabricating) company
- sell either company and just keep the other.
This will be further meddled by the shares of one or the other trading "when issued". Talk to your broker when the date of teh split is announced.
Depends on your time scale. A month ago SWC closed at 11.82 vs 9.16 today - that is down 23%. PD one the other hand closed 694 a month ago and is 598 now - down 14%. so if anything SWC has declined faster than Pd. That is what you would expect from any miner whose EPS and PPS are leveraged to the underlying commodity price.
If it wasn't for the good solid cash position and low interest and (declining) debt that price could be much lower. If current PGM prices stay here (or lower) for a several years it will get "interesting".
big: As for any significant SA operation to close, I think the govt would step in to aid them because of all the unrest a major loss jobs would cause. Lonmin has 26K+ employees. In relation to the SA economy they are too big to fail.
" Is Pd's price all about the Fed ? and zero about current and 2016 fundamentals?"
IMO fundamentals on the demand side.
"Do you really see mid-6's as realistic support, given that SWC is sitting on $3.80/sh cash and liquid investments?"
That was a chart read, not a fundamental read. But I can see 7.50 despite cash. At these prices they can burn .50 cash/year.
" I guess with an extremely bearish out-look for Pd., one might. But even then, Amplats, Implats, Lonmin and NAP will flounder, first, which would bring PGM back up again. "
Yes, NAP will be first to go. BAM pockets may be deep but even they must have a limit. SA politics messes up any rational analysis as we have seen with Lonmin (essentially a bail-out). Or govt can just lend them money so they can continue to operate (no layoffs) and stockpile Pd waiting for better prices.
All this potential downsizing is happening, while Oct. China auto sales rebounded 11+% YOY, 13% for larger, SUVs.
Auto sales are a trialing indicator for Pd. Cars built toady use PD bought 6 months ago.
"But it's all about that US dollar strength, it would seem ? until it isn't."
But that "isn't" could be 5 years away, We are at the start of #$%$ interest rate rise cycle.
" But I also can't think of a PGM miner is a better position than SWC to weather this storm." Agree
If SWC can reach their average analyst price target of $11 by late Jan or April, my risky bets should pay off nicely. GL with that.
Been 16 years since the last 3/2 split. Just after last split price was 68. Time for a split but my guess would be more like 3/2 or at most 2/1. No way 3/1 - would be out of character for HD.
Just returned from vacation and surprised to see SWC above 9. 580-620 support did not hold and now becomes resistance. Deficient to "adequate supply" for several years now? Still bearish for long term demand reasons.
Since they are not in production , they are not making profit anywhere yet. At thieses prices for PD an PT we would have to see their actual results before talking about profits.
"There are still about a third of the employees...."
Reminds me of the old joke:
Two people are walking past the huge main Post Office in Washington DC and one asks
"How many people work here?"
"About a third" says the other.
Yep. First purchase was Nov 09 and have 122K. Because much too overweight in my portfolio I am slowly reducing my position.
Why is it that whenever a stock goes down longs cry bear raid or short attack. They have no real knowledge just trying to rationalize the drop. With 3x normal volume (and RCB in effect) and down 10% IMO where there is smoke there is fire. There is a reason we just don't nkow it ywte. A forward PE of 30 may be a reason. Stock is just too expensive here.
"to better understand the economics and feasibility of using modern processing techniques to convert the Clayton Valley South brines into the high purity lithium"
New process not proven yet and surely not a commercial scale. My guess not a oz delivered until 2018.
I think TSLA is playing all the producers and gov'ts against each other. If all the Li these various entities say they can produce actually happen we will be up to our car roofs in Li. Many are not actually producing.
Yes, Silver Mtn is old tech - but "new" tech still not online anywhere soon.
And Ablemarle, with purchase of Rockwood and stake in Talison is not going to stand still and let PE or anyone else eat their lunch.