It just documented Gramercy Funds' huge position. I realize this was partially a negative (ie the dilutive financing), but once such a huge position from a single financial company is established,
good things often tend to happen. Best of luck:
Mar 10/14 Feb 28/14 Gramercy Funds Management LLC Control or Direction Exchangeable Preferred Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 16,650
Mar 10/14 Feb 28/14 Gramercy Funds Management LLC Control or Direction Exchangeable Preferred Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 600
Mar 10/14 Feb 28/14 Gramercy Funds Management LLC Control or Direction Exchangeable Preferred Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 144
Mar 10/14 Feb 28/14 Gramercy Funds Management LLC Control or Direction Exchangeable Preferred Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 2,106
Mar 10/14 Feb 28/14 Gramercy Funds Management LLC Control or Direction Exchangeable Preferred Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 500
Mar 10/14 Feb 28/14 Gramercy Funds Management LLC Control or Direction Exchangeable Preferred Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 20,000
Mar 10/14 Feb 28/14 Gramercy Funds Management LLC Control or Direction Common Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 130,417
Mar 10/14 Feb 28/14 Gramercy Funds Management LLC Control or Direction Common Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 1,255,000
Mar 10/14 Feb 28/14 Gramercy Funds Management LLC Control or Direction Common Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 3,300,000
Mar 10/14 Feb 28/14 Gramercy Funds Management LLC Control or Direction Common Shares 00 - Opening Balance-Initial SEDI Report 3,652,250
Currently, CRUMBS is 10 percent of my portfolio but I am only working with 35000 dollars total....so slightly less than 7000 shares. The amount is sizeable for me, not sizeable in almost any other definition...
Silver needs to break out in the same way as gold to benefit ANV in a more long-term manner. As of yesterday, silver still traded under 200 day average, but it seems to be moving up a little today and is perhaps playing some catch-up to gold.
Unless they announce another equity financing tomorrow, expect the rally to continue. Congrats to all...
Should add that I tried to buy shares today near the BID price. Each time an offer was placed, the BID price was elevated 1/100 a penny. After a few attempts, I lost interest and bid on something else.
Whoever controls the ticker here is effectively keeping buyers to a minimum. That seems a bullish sign in some sense to me -- some buyer is definitely trying to create a sizeable position before the stock gets pushed upward -- but of all the bullish reasons to invest in a stock, this is among the least satisfactory to me...
I actually am very hopeful that stock will somehow jump before earnings release. Also think this quarterly will be a little better than past quarterlies. It definitely will convey more hope and optimism re: the changes they are implementing.
But as for the last week, it's definitely hard to find a more weakly traded ticker, where almost all trades being made are by one entity trying to play with the ticker price. That said, this is the price range which initiated the last jump, and one must have hope for a repeat.
Penny stock tickers that have no underlying company generate more action; the total inactivity suggests that the stock ticker should be carved onto each cupcake.
Analyst upped price targets, and see this long-term play having some immediate momentum going forward. Analyst article available on Stockhouse, as well as some negative comments immediately preceding it.
Keep in mind that cash costs is different than all-in-costs... this remains an expensive producer that's utterly dependent on higher gold prices, and its addiction to equity financings as a producer is not a very desirable trait.
Still a great stock at a particularly low PPS, and a much easier stock to profit from than most other producers. It seems all about finding a good entry point and not being too greedy.
The rent is high in the Union Station location (which I frequent), but they seem to do okay there. I do think they've never thought their high prices were part of the problem, and would agree to anyone who thinks a cheaper cupcake will help the store more than a prettier cupcake.
Rather than serve fancy coffee, I also think they should give away free black coffee with every purchase of an oversized cupcake (or with every purchase exceeding a certain price amount, like $5, etc).
Anyway, I think they'd have major problems only if they had horrible product -- which i don't think they do. But they have over-positioned themselves as a high priced boutique bakery chain, which they hopefully will work to undo over time as they venture into low-rent locations, etc.
Contains updated information. Mentions there will be drilling this year (a good catalyst) but primarily things to derisk project. The definitive feasability study no longer says it will come out Q1, so likely won't. Production is now geared for 2017, which is more realistic, given the additional papers they are writing, etc.
The NAV chart is interesting, and definitely suggest the stock will jump three- or fourfold if gold starts an unexpected rise into 1500 territory. At current prices, the risk/reward might make it less attractive to some investors, as it will likely hold the risk until it is officially allowed to start building the mine.
He says he has no idea how much money the project will mean for the state. (Mr. Pritchard says the mine will generate about $226-million in federal, state and local taxes over 12 years.) But Mr. Colares would seem very determined that the federal agencies are not going to take away his power to make these decisions, and if they oppose Belo Sun, he is determined to see it happen.
"We don't need to consult with [the federal agencies] ... They're just making confusion," he says. "It doesn't matter if the mine is 9, 10 or 11 km from [the indigenous people] – it doesn't impact them – even their border," he said.
Many in the environmentalist community here speculate that Belo Sun intends to sell the mine now that it has an environmental licence; Mr. Eaton insists they will build.
"We've spent $35-million on engineering studies to build it," he said. He gestured toward the rough wooden core sheds that house the 175,000 metres of rock the company has drilled, at the stacks and stacks of trays that hold the proof this land is seamed with high-grade ore. "It's a great project. It's a good enough project that I believe we will end up building."
The oversight of federal agencies makes for a good system, in theory, he said – "making sure someone doesn't just come in here and trample over the indigenous people," he said. "But in practice it's been a little harder. I'd rather spend money on geologists than lawyers."
Perhaps fortunately for Belo Sun, the company happened into a situation where the Environment Secretary who must sign off on their permits is palpably irritated with environmentalists and others who oppose the dam, whom he views as professional opponents of progress, and fed up with federal interference in his state. Mr. Colares is having none of the public prosecutors' objections, or of the suggestion that because of the mine's proximity to the dam, the changed river flow and the indigenous lands, that federal regulatory agencies should also be involved.
He opens a discussion about Belo Sun with a long list of grievances. "The effects of mining on the local economy are minimal," he said. "In the installation phase they employ thousands of people but when they operate, the number of employees falls dramatically because these are very technical, innovative projects, not reliant on human labour. The federal government exempts them from taxes so that Brazil will be internationally competitive."
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For Ms. Morera and other critics, the mine itself is a problem, and so is what it represents – Altamira, once a sleepy little town, has in the past couple of years boomed to 100,000 people (but still dumps all its sewage directly into the river.) By green-lighting the mine, the government is sending the message that this region is open for development.
International non-governmental organizations such as Amazon Watch are highly critical of the proposed mine; 44 different organizations are part of a public campaign called Belo Sun No! Mr. Colares doesn't appreciate their involvement. Foreign countries, he said, particularly those in the developed world, like to talk about the Amazon as global heritage. That it is, he said, but it also happens to be on sovereign Brazilian territory, and Canadians who don't like the idea of mining here should remember that no one was trying to shut them down when they went hammer and tongs after their own minerals a century ago.
Belo Sun's licensing process has taken as long as it has in part because the company has been caught in a dispute between the state and federal levels. This state, Para, is Brazil's largest mineral producer and, under a decentralization initiative from the centre, is entitled to engage and license a project like Belo Sun itself. Yet a number of federal agencies, including the indigenous peoples' and one called the Brazilian Institute of the Environmental and Natural Renewable Resources, in charge of conservation, are entitled to a say, and the federal prosecutor's agency has taken a self-appointed activist role for both the Belo Monte dam and this case – becoming in the process the bane of Mr. Eaton's days. He described Ms. Santi as an ambitious lawyer unhappy at being posted to the backwater of Altamira: "She's trying to make a name for herself – and we're a pretty easy target."
The rain forest
The other actor in all this is one largely without a voice – the forest itself. This ecosystem is home to 10 per cent of the world's species. Mr. Pritchard says that although the open pits will be just 100 metres from the river, the company's impact on those species will be minimal: It will draw no water from the depleted river, he said, instead relying on rainfall collection. It will store tailings away from the riverbank, in ponds that he said will not leach into the surrounding land or river, that will keep cyanide out of the ecosystem. It's not virgin rain forest, he pointed out, but land that has already been cleared extensively for agriculture and that has been heavily degraded by the artisanal mining, damage the company will have to clean up.
The state Environment Secretary, Mr. Colares, is persuaded by this argument. "If this project doesn't happen, people are going to continue to live in misery and environmental degradation will continue," he said.
Ms. Morera called that assertion specious. "Yes, the land there is totally degraded and nobody takes any care about improving it – but there are other alternatives for sustainable development that they have totally ignored," she said. "You absolutely can't say that [commercial mining] is the only way to rehabilitate it."
But that's not as straightforward an assertion as it might seem, said Ms. Morera, the state prosecutor: those farmers were resettled under a federal program to give landless people farm land, in an effort to reduce both violent conflict over land and illegal agriculture that is seeing the forest cleared at a furious pace. How, she asked, does the company know that the owners they registered actually had a valid title claim, given that land transactions in this area frequently involve invasions, faked claims and extortion? "These people who negotiated with Belo Sun might be grileiros [professional land thieves who operate across the rainforest]. This question worries me very much."
The federal land authorities told The Globe and Mail that the agency is investigating "possible irregularities" in Belo Sun's purchase of the land and that the company had been informed that their work area overlapped with land already used to resettle people. The authorities would not say how long that investigation might go on or what its outcomes might be.
Mr. Pritchard said the company has done a census of who lived in the four small towns as of last year, and will buy the homes and businesses of those people, as well as moving them to a new community 22 km away. Royalties (currently set at 1 per cent of gross value of extracted gold, these are projected to be $15-million a year paid to a municipality of about 12,000 people) will pay for schools, health care and roads.
But Mr. Cunha said his community is frustrated because none of that is visibly under way. "They've stopped us from mining, but there's no resettlement project. They play with time – they're millionaires, they have investors. They just plan to put pressure on this place [for years], so the people all give up and leave."
There is perhaps more truth in this statement than Mr. Cunha knows: Mr. Eaton admits that with gold prices down, Belo Sun was perfectly happy to have a quiet year in 2013, in which bureaucracy kept them from being able to push forward at the original planned speed with developing the mine.
But the bureaucratic woes may be abating, because it is clear that the government in Para state – which has primary responsibility for approving the mind – wants this mine to get built. A few months ago a police force sent by the Environment Ministry came to bust up the technically illegal mining on the company land, the first time anyone can remember the police enforcing the law against unlicensed artisanal mining.
Seventy per cent of the land Belo Sun wants to use had small farmers on it. Mr. Eaton says the company was ultra-careful with land title, taking the step of first formally registering it in the name of the farmers who owned it before buying it from them.
"Belo Sun came here with great proposals, that they'd never stop anyone working, that they'd give everyone jobs," said Jose Lopes da Costa, who has mined here for 26 years. "Those promises were a ploy – as soon as they got their first licence, they came in and stopped the mining." Some people in the towns did get jobs – mostly make-work projects, such as putting up fences, for which they are paid about $450 (U.S.) a month. That compares to the $750 a month they made in a typical month of mining, Mr. Lopes said – and that was work done on their own schedule, when they felt like working. He acknowledged that the work was dangerous and often unpleasant (the miners use mercury heated over open flames, often in small enclosed spaces, to form the gold into small chunks they can sell).
"The government could come here, give us training – but no, they want to bring in a foreign company and throw us out," said Ideglan Cunha, another garimpeiro who said his parents were born on the land where he now has a three-room wooden house. "The wealth could be kept here within this country – and instead it will go out. What the company will spend here, it's crumbs. They will get rich on the backs of our poverty."
Mr. Pritchard said Belo Sun will proceed with a study on the mine's impact on indigenous people, as requested. He acknowledged that no one with Belo Sun knows what the area around the mine will look like in a year or two, when the river has been diverted. "But time isn't going to stop here while everyone sits and watches the river."
Meanwhile, Belo Sun has a second community demanding its attention: the garimpeiros, the small-scale miners who live on and still work the gold deposits on the Belo Sun concession. There are four communities of them scattered around the site; two are situated on top of what would be the pits when the mine begins work. Many of those miners were born on this land, and Brazilian law recognizes extractive rights of what it calls "traditional communities."
Until May, several thousand were still mining in hand-blasted shafts – wildly dangerous and deeply unpleasant work that involved being lowered up to 400 metres below ground in a cobbled-together tire swing. When it finalized title to the land, Belo Sun closed over the shafts and sealed off the pits. Many of the miners and their families moved out. Some stayed, sifting the old tailings for gold.
The mine would create 2,000 jobs in its installation phase, Mr. Eaton says, and about 500 when operational, and some will go to people from the garimpeiro villages. But many of the jobs will require a level of education or skill that people in the community don't have.
"Belo Sun is just down there, so we're in the eye of the tornado," said Marino Juruna, the head of a community of about 100 people called Paquisamba – about 13 km downriver from Belo Sun. "It's clear that there's going to be an impact and it won't be small. Already the noise from the machines at the dam drove the animals away. We can't fish [at night], because the night looks like day, now, with all the lights they use."
Mr. Juruna worries about his people, his children and his tribe, but he worries too about people he doesn't even know. There is one, or two or three depending whom one asks, uncontacted groups of indigenous people living in the forests around the mine. They deliberately eschew interaction with other people, living an entirely traditional life, and no one is sure whether they are Juruna, Arara or something else entirely. Mr. Juruna (many in the community use the tribal name as their surname) said his people see their hunting trails in the forest some times, have left them gifts of smoked fish that have been accepted, have traded flute tunes through the trees – but that's it.
In the past couple of months, he said, they have disappeared – he has heard a rumour that they are now in the forest several days journey down the river – driven away most likely by the bright lights and the blasting and the silt churned up by the dam construction.
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