I have you on Ignore now, but quit pretending you own the stock -- and $150,000 worth, at that. The stock outperformed all other juniors last year (it does well when gold prices rise), and it's shown to underperform when gold prices go down. Those who want to sell for a loss at these low prices should at least look at the MIDAS properties which they have 24.9 percent ownership.
It does not matter if that investment (which added over a hundred million in value to their assets last year) has also tanked this year due to gold prices. It can make money at $1000 gold, and can make a ton at $1400 gold (especially if antimony is still in high need). It's a great safety net for holders of this stock.
Also, an fyi that the Invecture site now lists the purchase of the Los Cordones property too. If gold goes down to $1000 next year, and mgmt seems to be calculating in that possibility, then this will be a miner that won't have any immediate liquidity concerns through 2014 and into 2015.
Check recent SEC filing (dated Oct 9) and previous SEC filing (in September).
The size of the buy was interesting.
My post was not meant to be a negative spin on insider buying. It seems to be the focus for PGLC investors, and I suppose the stock holds its value as a result of the insider buying. I admittedly have also bought miners with many insider buys (by the CEOs), and the stocks for those still tank -- sometimes dramatically, as with Belo Sun and Red Eagle.
The core of my apologetically convoluted comment was this: for the same amount of Honig's money spent on buying shares, you wouldn't have to guess about millions of gold under the ground. Mines with a million-plus ounces are being sold for nothing by cash-strapped or bankrupt explorers, and it would be great if Honig was aggressively trying to capitalize on this downturn in the sector.
The stock remains interesting to me -- but never for anything mining-related. The SeekingAlpha obsession is bizarre (if they're not being paid by PGLC, how come there are 4 or 5 writers haunted by this mostly inactive miner?) and this message board is simply interesting. I like the music comments, the strange poetry interludes, and all that.
I think all the bears are in agreement that the SeekingALpha articles are misleading, and dupe some new investors -- one actually said that good drill results can help an explorer double in price, but a bad drill result does nothing #$%$, even merely respectable results can crash it) -- but aside from that, it's just going to be interesting to see if there's anything behind all the hype. It's probably a few years before we'll know.
Anyway, apologies for yet another most likely convoluted post.
It's available at the Northern Miner website (on their front page)
GSV has went up 10 percent every day since Monday. It's jumped from 59 cents to about $1.
I sold my shares and threw them into the ultra-cheap but still ultra-cheap VISTA beforehand, so I am watching (with nausea) from a distance, but there is a real benefit sometimes to put more focus on drill results, etc, than on insider buying. I also bought Belo SUn on insider buying (CEO bought 100000 shares at 40 cent per share a few days ago) and it's tanked since then. Anyway, not mentioning GSV to pump it, just mentioning an obvious downside to a stock that seems more focused/obsessed on retaining relative price stability than on anything else.
In this market, I really think Honig (if he has tons of money) should be focused less on insider buys and more on buying up other properties at distressed prices (as Invecture seems to now be doing). If Valor failed, then try again. (BTW, Valor shares have doubled since June, be it a shell or not.)
Anyway, I am interested in any miner trying to exploit this down period in the market so that its future is radically better. That's not the case being done here, or almost anywhere for that matter. Whatever happens with gold prices, it definitely seems most miner CEOs are expecting much worse before ti gets better.
As for why GSV is going up (if curious)? Good drill results, reports of offers to partner with it on the Railroad property, and reports of a sale on its other property. (Thom Calandra made a fairly prescient write-up on Monday about it in his newsletter.) That said, why is it still going up? Just to annoy me, I think.
Curious, does any mining CEO (aside from ROb McEwen) believe this to be the case? In an interview yesterday, the Franco Nevada CEO felt we'd be bumping around these prices for a while, and lots of exploratory miners are raising the cut-off grades for their deposits, thus lowering the overall assets, because there's an assumption that much of the gold that's deeper in the ground is simply uneconomic. By doing this, their stock always tanks (as they lowered their assets) despite the fact they're proving they can have good profit margins at $1200 gold, etc.
Anyway, I am so hopeful gold shoots up to $1400 in the next month or two (it would save my portfolio). RIght now, I am mostly loaded with miners who've reached new year-lows, yet seem content to linger there a while.
June's PVG evaluation from Brent COok (a geologist) is also now available for free at ceo.ca (tommy humphrey's site) ; it is neither bullish or bearish, but presents some of the uncertainties re: the deposit that only the actual mining of it will help to prove or disprove.
Just an fyi that the $13 million was more or less the same price Invecture paid to acquire Kimber Resources earlier in September.
I think that purchase from Invecture helped to set the asking price, and also made the original deal less likely to happen. The Kimber assets seem somewhat similar to Los Cordones.
In other words, though we will never know, this may not have been a case of VISTA trying to get money quick, but that, if they did not alter the deal, Invecture was going to back out completely.
SSRI has a huge investment in Pretium. If Pretium is able to rebound from yesterday's disaster and right the ship, then this is definitely a great time to take a shot there. If not, there could be more headwinds.
I think ANV is suffering now from a market infatuation for high-grade deposits. I think their bulk mining approach will get attractive again once they prove their profit margins are strong in Q3. If they did not make much money in Q3 (due to gold prices, etc), then they are going to take another hit. They absolutely have to make profit at $1300 or $1200 gold.
And if they prove they can make money at $1000 gold, then I think ANV will find itself among the more loved miners once again.
Everytime I have a firm conviction about something -- like gold miners soaring after the release of the FED minutes -- I'm wrong.
If you're anything like me, don't bet the house on this. Good luck, though.
Red Eagle released a positive PEA early September, where their all-in-costs was $987, and their already-cheap stock crashed another 30 percent on the news. It since recovered a little, only to go down 6 percent in Canada yesterday after some positive drill news.
PPS movement can be totally unrelated to mgmt; it doesn't even need to be related to gold price movement. If it's advantageous for some big players to take a stock down, then they will. At some pt, it also becomes advantageous for the big players to reverse their bet too.
I think B2Gold has great management; ditto Continental. Both stocks are being crushed now, because they simply can be crushed. When Barrick was pushed down to $13 this year, it was ridiculous. SOmetimes a stock gets so low that it then becomes an obvious buy (which Barrick was at that time).
Re: your tirade against Fred Earnest, I may disagree but who cares? If this stock hits 70 cents again, that's over a 40 percent jump. Market makers will take it there at some pt just because they like to make money both directions. FreeSeas is a POS company that can jump 50 percent in a few hrs. I like VISTA -- they turned a junk mine called Mt Todd, with less than 2 million hard-to-mine ounces, and made it into a pretty valuable mine -- but its ticker is a toy. I have enough confidence in MIDAS to know that the VISTA-owned shares alone will be worth $100-150 million at some pt. So, to me, this is a very safe bet.
And while I sense there is a lot of naked shorting going on with VISTA, and with lots of other miners, this stock doesn't need a short squeeze to rebound. It doesn't need any news, for that matter. One day it just will go up a lot. The jumps don't always need to be rational (THM jumped 12 percent yesterday, for example), they're just going to happen sometimes just because they can.
The longer current Fed policies remain in force, the greater the potential disruption to financial markets when it changes, most likely due to events yet unforeseen,” he said. “Still, conventional economic commentary remains confident of Fed competence to unwind its balance sheet. When this confidence dissipates, as we expect, investment demand for gold will resurface in the most forceful manner.”
Other factors which Hathaway believes are supportive of future gold demand include:
--The mining industry is in the midst of a major retrenchment. Current gold prices are insufficient to justify new mine construction. Future mine supply seems likely to decline, perhaps significantly.
--The spread of “onerous banking and securities industry regulations” will drive investment demand for gold, which, if owned in the correct manner, has little or no counterparty risk and is not subject to financial market and banking industry control.
“In summary, we believe the gold market is set up for a major advance, but recognize that the timing of a turn has been elusive and frustrating,” Hathaway advises.
“The current government shutdown is on the one hand an unfortunate headline grabbing side show, which drives aimless short term speculative trading activity. On the other hand, regardless of how it plays out, we regard this very divisive process as a fissure in US credit. We also believe persistent questions about economic recovery in the US and Europe could provide a catalyst in the form of a draw-down of equity market valuations or as a further undermining of Fed credibility.”
“What is certain to us is that market reversals of the kind we anticipate require a tolerance for the pain that it takes to be invested at the low, and that money on the sideline will be paralyzed and unable to act until metals share prices have advanced strongly,” he concluded.
In the last few minutes, gold is starting to fall hard. I presume it's another huge ETF sell, and gold prices may quickly rebound, but it's the sort of business-as-usual game with gold prices that is definitely not going to attract more conservative investors to the sector.
Recently, in a measured article on Chinese gold, Jan Skoyles of the Real Asset Company, commented as follows: “A 2012 paper, ‘A Study on Optimal Scale of China Gold Reserves’ co-authored by the Vice-President of the China Gold Association recommended that by 2020, China’s optimal reserves should be 5,787 – 6,750 tons. If the State Council has followed this recommendation then the PBOC should currently hold between 2,947.2 tons and 3332.4 tons of gold in reserve.” With its own gold production perhaps reaching 440 tonnes this year, this suggests Chinese gold consumption alone so far this year is already over 1,000 tonnes - and accounts for around 55% of global new mined gold output. Perhaps more if imports other than through Hong Kong are significant.
Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge reckons China may actually even have far more than 3,000 tonnes in its reserves, as do a number of others, and is only waiting until it sees the time as right before announcing yet another gold reserve uptick. But would this then even be accurate?
All this of course is surmise – and after all China is not the only country to be evasive on its true gold reserve status anyway. Even the U.S. Fed won’t allow its gold reserves to be audited, which would not seem to be an unreasonable request if the gold is really there.
But, the fact remains that China is still bringing in gold at a high rate, and the momentum of this is being maintained so far. Indeed Bloomberg inferred that the August figure might have been higher, but some of the banks and institutions able to import gold had come up against quota limits. China has just relaxed its gold import restrictions opening it up to more companies or individuals. Might this give a further fillip to gold imports through the rest of the year? We will have to wait and see.
Down 7 percent in Canada on the good news.
Status quo for this all-too-neglected miner.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Can you give the list of the 8 miners? A majority of them hitting new lows, so fast, is one reason I actually think this is a head fake, and that gold miners will rebound. I realize you disagree, but anyway, many thanks if you could provide the list...