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Allied Nevada Gold Corp. Message Board

benandemmiboo 21 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Apr 2, 2013
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  • Reply to

    The usual friday BAA dump

    by judge_d_rex 3 hours ago
    benandemmiboo benandemmiboo 3 hours ago Flag

    VGZ went from 90 cents to 30 cents between September 2013 and OCtober 2013 on mostly no news except being removed from GDXJ. It quickly rebounded to 60 cents in January 2014. It's done little since, but even at its lows, it's never come close to approaching 30 cents again.

  • benandemmiboo benandemmiboo 3 hours ago Flag

    The 26 million shares were dumped on a technicalityy by VAN ECk, which had 26 million shares of BAA in its GDXJ fund. Next Friday, you will see that BAA has been removed from the GDXJ holdings, if not sooner than that.
    As the dump comes one week after the "event" (where BAA was under 75 million market cap at the time of the next indexing), some entities definitely knew about it and prepared for this temporarily negative event.
    While there's no reason to guarantee this as a buying opportunity next week, it most likely will be.
    Best of luck to all... Goldquest has been fairly easy profit after its ridiculous collapse a week or two ago, and I personally expect this will follow suit. And though it may be gone from the GDXJ, it may still be held by Van ECK, or else sold to Sun Valley Gold or some other rich hedge fund.

  • benandemmiboo by benandemmiboo Sep 5, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    3 million ounces and cash which makes up almost half its market cap... along with a doable capex, and a very respected management team who've taken mines all the way to the production stage.. Not my favorite miners -- but perhaps my favorite miner at the current share price (ie sub 20 cent canadian)...

  • benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Sep 4, 2014 4:43 PM Flag

    I don't doubt the change -- thanks! -- though find it surprising. Am frustrated too that I can't find the change indicated anywhere.

    This is from the Van ECK GDXJ SEC filing from 2009: "Constituent stocks for the Junior Gold Miners Index must have a market capitalization of greater than $150 million on a rebalancing date to be eligible for the Junior Gold Miners Index. Stocks whose market capitalization falls below $75 million as of any rebalancing date will no longer be eligible for the Junior Gold Miners Index. Stocks must have a three-month average daily trading volume of at least $1 million to be eligible for the Junior Gold Miners Index and issuers of such stocks must have traded at least 250,000 shares each month over the last six months. Only shares that trade on a recognized domestic or international stock exchange may qualify (e.g., National Stock Market stocks must be “reported securities” under Rule 11Aa3-1 of the Exchange Act. Similar criteria and standards apply to stocks with foreign listings)."

    I know this market cap minimum was in place this past June, as Belo Sun was removed then for having fallen under the 75 million market cap. They have not recovered too quickly -- but ATAC and VGZ each had fairly rapid reversals soon after putting out press releases that vaguely alluded to the GDXJ removal.

  • benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Sep 3, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    It's done quarterly. The last one was in June (the deadline date was a Friday, with shares removed from the GDXJ index on the following Friday). Van ECK is responsible for the GDXJ, and the precise date should be on their site (though I apologetically cannot find it). Those with funds on the sidelines should definitely view the re-indexing as a prelude to a buying event, as this is a temporary drop that miners normally recover quickly from.

  • benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Sep 2, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    Needs to reach a 75 million market cap before the next GDXJ re-indexing -- or else it will be removed from the GDXJ fund, which could create some temporary selling pressure on the stock.

  • Article covers the financing, with title as follows: "Banro finds 'relief' in new financing plan". Those who have yet to read an article from the Northern Miner site this week get one free article. (I unfortunately read another article earlier in the week, so will be unable to post.)

  • Looks like market appreciates the financing -- at least for now.

  • drilling results should be coming soon too, etc

  • Reply to

    Another big dump at the end of the day

    by museloser Jul 29, 2014 5:34 PM
    benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Jul 29, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    The 100-share trader seems to be accumulating a position -- so the stock will eventually move up strong, IMO, but I think there's effort to keep it under 75 million market cap until the next GDXJ reindexing (September). If it's under 75 million on a reindexing date, then VAn ECK would have to dump its shares and another hedge fund (perhaps the 100 share trader) could acquire a significant chunk of shares for quite cheap. Anyway, I am invested, so hope am wrong, but think it's premature to make a huge gaamble/investment here...

  • benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Jul 29, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    Their low last year was 17 cents. Then they put out a press release saying they were drastically undervalued, and it's been a great story for its investors more or less from that day on.

    That said, they seem to have been high-grading their deposit the past year. It's a gamble that seems to have worked for its current investors, so far, but I think their market cap is still lower than the price they paid to acquire one of their mines a few years ago.

  • Reply to

    Bringing in Kappes Cassiday & Associates

    by debbie_dean2001 Jul 23, 2014 5:57 PM
    benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Jul 24, 2014 6:33 AM Flag

    Personally see this as rising in the short term. BAA announced an equity raise after it last ascended to the 70 cents range, and I'd personally play this very conservatively once the stock gets above 40-50 cents this time.

    Long-term, totally agree. And stock could feasibly even do well at the financing stage if they were able to attract some of the big names in the mining investment world (Giustra, etc). Don't see the latter happening, but one can hope.

  • Reply to

    Who do you believe

    by mfrank2849 Jul 15, 2014 4:19 PM
    benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Jul 21, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    This is analysis that made sense to me (from a site called gold silver data), and which explained the risk-reward fairly well with this stock:

    Summary (from last analysis - 05/17/2014)

    Banro Corp is a growing mid-tier producer. Other than political risk (Democratic Republic of Congo) and debt issues, this stock is a slam dunk 5 to 10 bagger. They have an incredible amount of gold (possibly 20 million oz) and production just began in 2011. Thus, this company is going to be growing rapidly over the next 5 years. By 2018 they should have 4 producing mines and 350,000 to 400,000 oz of production.

    Also, they have project on top of project to explore (500,000 acres), and the mineralization is 1 to 2 gpt surface mining, which is very low cost in Africa. This company has the potential to a major, with a market cap over $3 billion. I could be wrong that they will reach that lofty valuation, but if gold goes over $2500 and they hit their production target of 500,000 oz, this will be a very valuable company.

    The biggest red flag besides the location is their balance sheet ($175 million in debt and only $4 million in cash). If they ever have to stop mining, the stock price is going to crash because of their debt burden. This might be a good speculation stock. If gold prices spike this year, they could improve their balance sheet and jump in value. With a FD market cap of only $120 million, their future reserves are selling for about $12 per oz.

  • Reply to

    How to measure the results

    by markkind2001 Jul 17, 2014 9:28 AM
    benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Jul 17, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    put the results in the drill interval calculator at Corebox -- that can be helpful...

  • See CanadianInsider for those wanting info...

  • Reply to

    More insider Mark Eaton

    by grandslammer222 Jul 7, 2014 10:05 AM
    benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Jul 12, 2014 6:27 AM Flag

    As importantly, the courts just ruled in favor of Belo Monte and are preventing the dam from being suspended, etc. They are also calling into question the accuracy of the documents, used as proof by opposition, that the indigenous people will not be able to live their traditional way of life with the dam (particularly as FUNAI was well-involved in the plans to build this revised version of the Belo Monte dam). This news was published in the Friday papers, as well as the Belo Monte blog. The judge asked that a study be done which scientifically proves that the indigenous lives will be adversely affected.

  • Reply to

    Nice gain, thanks!

    by cohenjoe31 Jul 1, 2014 11:50 AM
    benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Jul 10, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    Again, then, congrats. The product definitely has a loyal customer base, and their franchising plans hopefully goes forward as initially planned.

  • Reply to

    Nice gain, thanks!

    by cohenjoe31 Jul 1, 2014 11:50 AM
    benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Jul 10, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    Congrats. But given that Fischer Investments is the primary buyer, it means the temporary "bankruptcy" was also intentional -- so the Scott Fischer guy remains crooked in my book. As do their insider buys at .0001 cents a few months back. As does his temporary hiring, then quitting, of his board position. etc.
    Anyway, happy to have the cupcakes back (I missed them immediately, and tried to buy them on Monday when I thought they may be selling inventory at reduced prices) and happy some here got wealthy from their investments. I took a 25 percent loss, which could have been more.

  • Reply to

    So the plant needs more capex

    by goygoy3414 Jul 9, 2014 10:27 PM
    benandemmiboo benandemmiboo Jul 10, 2014 5:40 AM Flag

    The press release definitely suggests their current market cap makes a little more sense.

  • benandemmiboo by benandemmiboo Jun 30, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    The Invecture website now states it "also owns the Los Cardones Gold Project in Baja California Sur with a reserve of 1.2 million ounces". Prior to this, it used to say it entered into an agreement with Vista to buy the project... In other words, it appears the 2nd payment may have been made (or at least will be made very shortly).
    As for the Midas shares, they did recently have permits revoked for some public properties, yet to be drilled, but this has no bearing on the properties that already have been drilled and which make up its 1 billion NPV (at $1400 gold).

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