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NuPathe Inc. Message Board

benny7459 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2015 8:32 AM Member since: Jul 2, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Domination of Omega 3 Market

    by benny7459 Jan 22, 2015 8:11 AM
    benny7459 benny7459 Jan 22, 2015 8:32 AM Flag

    CongraDulations! Enough said, thanks for your input!

  • Last week between Branded L and Gen L, there were over 78K scripts. I believe by the end of this year, a majority of these will be Vascepas.
    When Vascepa was first launched its main competition was Lovaza. Sure there were fenofibrates and Niacin's. But the one drug it was really going after was Lovaza. Niacin's have fallen off the map after AIM-HIGH showed some serious problems.
    For the first 9 months on market, Vascepa was starting to take some market share. Then ADCOM came and the train went off the tracks. Sales force was cut and we were left with stagnant sales. Then in the middle of last year 2 things occurred, Gen L and KOWA.
    Gen L immediately took the wind out of Lovazas "sales". They quickly captured the market and have left Lovaza a shell of what it use to be. With only 18K scripts last week, you wonder how long GSK will waste their time on this drug?
    So it will probably become a battle between Gen L and Vascepa. And head to head, it is really no competition. Vascepa is better and cheaper, period. Also,Vascepa has a sales force behind it that is becoming entrenched and getting in doctor's ears.
    We also have IMPROVE-IT that has put some of the focus back on LDL-C. How on earth at this point could a doctor ever prescribe a drug that raises LDL, when there is a cheaper option on market that doesn't? There has been talk on a couple of different message board that this change is already occurring. We should see it continue throughout this year.
    So I believe by the end of this year, Branded L could be gone, and Vascepa should have taken a majority of Gen L scripts. Oh and Epanova, big mistake AZN! Have a great day!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If you go strictly off stock price, we are much worse off than we were a year ago, down over 50%. But if you take a step back, I believe we are in MUCH better shape than we were a year ago today.
    Let's start with Sales Team and Scripts. This time last year our Sales Force was in shambles. Management had just cut half the sales force and sales were at a standstill. Today, with Kowa onboard, we have 375 reps and sales are continuing to rise. I believe we will see a real growth in sales in 2015 and wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing 1000 script increase per month. I won't say we will get to break-even in 2015, but we will definitely close the gap.
    ANCHOR and SPA appeal. This time last year ANCHOR was just put on hold and SPA appeal process just beginning. Both items completely crippled stock price for most of 2014. Even when we did get some good news, it was overshadowed by a SPA denial. And with each denial came more and more negative sentiment. Now that SPA appeal process is finally over, we will start getting recognition and PPS growth when good news comes along. And who knows, maybe we will get some kind of ANCHOR shocker. But at least at this point any negative ANCHOR news should not effect things too much.
    Reduce-IT. One more year in the books for this trial and one more year closer to results. Also, we received clarity in Sept that this trial will continue. This was not a certainty this time last year. I think we will see some type of partnership announcement in Q1 which should give clarity to funding the remainder of this trial.
    Cash burn reduction. I will not go into all numbers, but cash burn has been significantly reduced from this time last year.
    These are just some of the reasons why we are a much stronger company 1 year later. You cannot always judge a year just based off stock price. I am excited to see how much stronger we will be this time next year. And this time it will be reflected in price! Happy New Year!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • benny7459 by benny7459 Dec 24, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    First I wanted to say Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all AMRN LONGS! It has been an extremely difficult year, but I truly believe the worst is behind us. There is a lot to be optimistic about, scripts are on the rise, costs seemed to be contained and it seems almost daily positive studies continue to come out about positive effects of EPA.
    I believe we need one announcement that will get this price moving in right direction. It would be nice if this announcement was about ANCHOR but I am talking about something management has control of. That is ex USA partnership. This needs to be accomplished in Q1. As many have said, share price is being kept down in large part to lack of clarity surrounding funding for Reduce-IT. Partnership should remove this.
    I believe this will have a huge cascading effects. Not only do you remove dilution, but other nasty words that keep popping up like reverse split, bankruptcy, will go away as well. It will bring positive sentiment back to the stock and I think we will quickly rebound back to $2. Then the company will finally start being valued based on fundamentals.
    As hard as it is, try and stay positive going into 2015. I believe it will be a start of an enormous run over the next couple of years. I believe $3 is conceivable by this time next year. Then 2016 could be huge year if we get positive interim results. The last 14 months since ADCOM have been truly awful for this stock but will make the next 24 so much more rewarding! Happy Holidays!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tortoise and the Hare

    by benny7459 Dec 12, 2014 10:29 AM
    benny7459 benny7459 Dec 12, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    BB, thanks! Unfortunately as the stock price as dropped, so to has the intellect of the posters on this message board. I am in until Reduce-It. I believe it will be successful and shareholders will be vindicated. This stock is tough to watch on a daily basis, but over the next year we should start churning back up as scripts continue to rise. Longs have been patient this long, what's another couple years:). Take Care!

  • benny7459 by benny7459 Dec 12, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    I like to think of Amarin being led by both over the past few years. JZ was a hare. He was brash, made quick decisions and the stock reflected it. It would move fast based on his brash words and decision. Sometimes to the benefit or detriment of his shareholders. And in the end of his reign as CEO, it ended up costing him his job and subsequent share price.
    Bring in JT. If you listen to any of his conference calls you know he is definitely the tortoise. Slow, but calculated in his words. This has transpired into his decisions. The stock has pretty much reflected this as well. No volume, very slow movement and things have gotten pretty downright boring and frustrating for shareholders.
    The good news is we all know how the story ends and the tortoise wins the race. JT may bore you to tears but he is doing what is needed right now. He is reducing cash burn, and slowly increasing script. Both moves that will hopefully get us to R-IT results and to our victory. It may be slow going and tough to watch for a while. But know the right things are being done. Continue to accumulate these low priced shares and I will see you at the Finish Line! Have a great weekend!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I was reading through the ADCOM slides the other day and I just got #$%$ off all over again. The data in these slides is so overwhelming in favor of ANCHOR approval it is ridiculous. But there is something to think about that is so simple. Everyone wants to look at subgroup analysis of the "3 Failed Studies" as well as JELIS and make argument for ANCHOR and future success of Reduce-IT. Well how about just looking at the actual study results.
    If you take the percent reduction of MACE in the 4 studies combined you get about 6% overall reduction. Again this is not deemed significant and why 3 of these 4 studies were looked on as failures.
    So let's see in some crazy cosmic world this is the percentage the Reduce-IT shows. Not great right. Well let's focus on Slide #62 of these ADCOM slides and look at Post-Marketing Safety Data. Out of over 125K Rx's, there was 1, I repeat 1, SAE (GI Hemorrhage) reported. That equates to .0008% So the most conservative estimates of Vascepa would give a risk/reward of .0008%/6%. Where is the risk in approving ANCHOR?
    Of course we know that Reduce-IT is going to show significantly more than a 6% reduction, but at worst case scenario, there is still no reason not to approve from Risk/Reward perspective. And that should be all that matters. Have a Happy Halloween!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Let me retiterate...management already won

    by pkarnett83 Oct 28, 2014 12:46 PM
    benny7459 benny7459 Oct 28, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    Wow, I didn't realize they made billions of dollars of these sales in 2012. Sure, JZ and JT did well for themselves. But to believe that they are so filthy rich that they just don't care anymore is ridiculous. Kennedy, Kethum, Farrell and other members of the management team. How much did they make off these sales? Not nearly enough to retire on, if any. Farrell is only 36, you think he wants this company to go up in flames and have this on his resume.
    You are just so bitter at this point that you actually believe management doesn't care. If they didn't care they would sell to the first bidder and be done with it. They would not have spent all this time and energy fitting for ANCHOR.
    I will not say management has not made their share of mistakes along the way. Pharmakon deal, and other poor financial moves. But to sit there and make people believe they don't care, that is just being bitter and vindictive. Sell your shares and move on, if you actually have any....Have a great day!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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