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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

benzilla999 53 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 3, 2015 10:48 AM Member since: Mar 29, 2006
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  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jul 3, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    FB is he next FB stock not GOOG.

    FB is 2/3's of the way to the cap of GOOG. FB has plenty more Growth in revenue but it wont likely produce 80% growth for the next half a decade like GOOG did. From here on out it will grow the way it grows and it will follow its own trajectory not GOOG's.

    The analysts that have 120 targets are for end of 2016 not 2015. That's the way targets work. It could be 120 by the end of the year but not based on an analyst's target.

    All of this is saying you need to look at Facebook as a company and then look at FB as a stock. You can't compare it to a GOOG or any other stock. Roughly speaking for FB to go up 50% it will need to produce roughly a little more than 50% growth yoy. In half a year that would roughly be double.

    You are likely to see growth in price but it will be slower and there will be bumps in the road. FB is a growth stock and it will follow the trajectory of were the market feels its future is. It wont follow GOOG. It will follow its own growth.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jul 2, 2015 12:17 AM Flag

    You cant compare stocks on stock price. LNKD has a cap of 26B and FB has a cap of 240B. How can that be if LNKD is 200 and FB is 87.? Its the number of shares.

  • Reply to

    im gonna be out by friday

    by dblornil Jun 30, 2015 5:52 PM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Jul 1, 2015 1:44 AM Flag

    A lot of the times the news that comes out is bubble gum for the brain. Often the news is used to push the markets. We hear everything bad and then the news fails to materialize as the great monster that it is portrayed to be. Sometimes, however, it is right. I tend to think most of the time things like Greece are overblown but I am just one person among many in the market and the market decides not me.

    The only thing you really need to do is look and see what you feel the market is going to do. It looks like you feel like the market is going to tank.

    Did you know you can short GREK which is a ETF based on the Greek market. You can also play butterflies, strangles, straddles, backspreads on any ETF on the Indexes like the Dow or S&P. This means you can play it either way.

    Its always hard to say and if you feel like sitting on cash for a bit its not a bad choice. You can always get back in because it wont go away. There are some other options if you want to try to play the direction of your conviction. I personally think Monday was the bad day for FB but you know what I have wrong.

    Good luck

  • Reply to

    Greece has everyone nervous.

    by redtr4 Jun 29, 2015 8:45 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 29, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    Its just part of the market. There are ups and downs. If a person is long term focused, they should not worry about the stock moving day to day.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 26, 2015 11:53 PM Flag

    He said he would make his first million in the same October time frame. At that time he didn't even have a million and now he bought based on what he said 1 million shares about 5 times. Holy smokes, that is a lot of money in 8 months.

    Does he expect anyone to even listen to what he has to say except a few inept individuals.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 26, 2015 11:49 PM Flag

    His options are just too far away. He needs to be $10 OTM with a couple of months left to even have an option that is worth a dollar. He bought his for couple of bucks allegedly and I say that because he claims to have bought a 200k contracts each contract has 100 shares. I don't really care what Rob thinks but he should at least make his fibs a little smaller so it could in theory be believable.

    The best options are near or a little itm. Far OTM $10 out are bad bets. $80.00 out are sucker plays.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 26, 2015 7:36 PM Flag

    The option will be worth 0 if the stock is not above 150. It will be worthless at $120, it will be worthless at $130, it will be worthless at $140. You see you bought time and IV and by the time it gets close to expiration that value is gone. Are you also new to investing or do you not know that? So if you claim that you expected it to be between "120 and 150" at the end of the year" then you bought a contract knowing it would be worthless.
    Read a little bud and find out how an option contract works.

    The second part is you are shifting your lie by trying to say that you wished for it to go to 120 to 150 by the end of the year. You did say $150 by the end of the year but you have to remember that you said $125.00 by summer. Alas your shifting your argument makes you look a little bit more stupid.

    Does that make sense? You are absolutely wrong about FB being over 125 by the summer. Guaranteed even. You are not worth 500 million dollars, otherwise you would be on Forbes bub. You would need 500 million to buy all the shares you claim to buy. You are wrong there.

    Rob all I ask is that you come here and say what you want but don't lie okay. That is a very simple request but if you do you will be called on it. You are a pathological liar. You lie all the time. Stop it!!!

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 26, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    We are still laughing because the 120 target is for the end of 2016. Its only one analyst. You bought a million shares around 5 times.......I don't think you have enough monopoly money in the box and we are still laughing. You yourself just admitted to buying worthless options.

    You forgot about buying more options than there was OI and you also guaranteed that we would see 125 by summer. You are not even close.

  • Reply to

    google started out the same way

    by bobbrady777 Jun 24, 2015 10:38 PM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 25, 2015 5:41 PM Flag

    377 is actually a combined market cap. There are 341.60M outstanding class B shares. If you do the multiplication, this comes out to 182b. Add that to 190 and some change and you have 377B.

    Anyway I don't have any qualms with FB rising but the comparison cannot be made between it and GOOG. FB also has 3.4B dilutive shares (Oculus shares are not included) so it doesn't take too much to get FB to the same cap as GOOG. Which in turn makes the comparison useless. FB will rise based on the market's belief not on comparative value.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 25, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    The recent rise has just been window dressing. When the big guys are not buying the price will stagnate.

    The price is actually pretty resilient so that is good. This means that there are not a huge amount of sellers at this level. There are surprisingly not a real high OI in call options so Friday may not be that bad unless there is no buying volume at all.

    Next week may not move much with low volume. Anyway it has been a nice little rise!

  • Reply to

    google started out the same way

    by bobbrady777 Jun 24, 2015 10:38 PM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 25, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    250/377 x 100=66%. So FB is 66% of GOOGS market cap.

  • Reply to

    google started out the same way

    by bobbrady777 Jun 24, 2015 10:38 PM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 25, 2015 1:32 AM Flag

    FB is 66% of the way to GOOG. Its not about price and you cant compare two companies on pps. Actually you really cant compare the two companies but if you insist at the current price it is not too far from the value of GOOG.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 24, 2015 12:44 AM Flag

    If FBis at 125 (or for that matter 150) at the end of the year, your calls are worthless. Why would you make that call or state it right now? I just try to make sense of what you say. You state that you are with the Wall Street elite, and you bought a million shares on a whim, and now you are stating that you bought calls that you knew would be worthless. I am astonished and quite frankly I don't know if you understand what you just stated but I am somewhat embarrassed for you. If you could tone your post 2 notches from fanatical, I think people would leave you alone.

  • Reply to

    Why the Bump Up Today

    by dc7177 Jun 23, 2015 7:05 PM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 24, 2015 12:30 AM Flag

    Window dressing.

  • Reply to


    by cashbar1 Jun 23, 2015 9:38 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 24, 2015 12:24 AM Flag

    The shares are a drop in a big sea of shares. FB has 3.4 billion dilutive shares and 2.8 billion outstanding shares so there will be a constant feed of shares. However, if there are buyers for those shares, then their effect will be minimal. The bigger effect of the shares will be the increased float which will make the movements slower and kill momo.

    Today's movement is mainly window dressing. When a lot of shares trade in a time of normally anemic trading volumes then there will be quite a pop. There has not been a fundamental or truly technical shift in the recent rise.

    We have to see if funds keep accumulating or whether the managers are ready to go on vaction and if the option guys kill the run on Friday.

    Those are all possibilities. I personally think that FB will see 90's before earnings but I think this is going to put a lot of pressure on earnings and if they don't beat big there may be a decent correction. I have been in the stock market a long time and it sounds like the same for you. I have followed a lot of momo. I used to trade Iomega, and @home, RIMM, GOOG, CROX, HANS, TIE, TRLG. They all have commonalities. The ranges and patterns cannot be found on a Bill O'neill pattern. Similarities become prevalent in oscillations or ranges but it has always been hard to corral these stocks. Despite it being above your called range, I wouldn't feel bad.

    I think you have a decent rationale approach to looking at FB and I appreciate that you say what you believe instead of what you want. You have my respect, whatever that is worth.


  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 23, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    You do not know numbers. It is obvious because if you did then your numbers would be reasonable and you wouldn't be wrong so many times.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 23, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    Whats your ploy? You didn't buy 1 million shares. No one knows 3 months out that a stock will go up 60 in 3 days. Why don't you stop lying. At one point you said that you haven't made a million but you will.

    You are now saying that you have 85 million to throw around. If you are going to lie, at least be consistent.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 23, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    Sorry but your own DD is better than hope. If it goes to 200, it will do so based on its on volition not hope.

    The best way to look at a stock is to study it and base where you think the stock is going to go on what you studied. Its not good to just wish for a stock to move.

    If you see it going to 200 based on something that is great but if you listen to liars and shills then you will most likely be frustrated.

  • Reply to


    by cashbar1 Jun 22, 2015 6:42 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 22, 2015 9:57 AM Flag

    If you are looking for purely a time to short, it would most likely be after Q2 announcement. While the stock is performing anemically, it will be held into earnings and there shouldn't be a catastrophic drop between now and then.

    I believe that FB will hit the 90's sometime this year. That is just a guess. It could go into the 70's if conditions were right. Everything could change depending on how they report. That is one of the reasons I believe you want to wait until after earnings.

    If there is a correction, you may want to try silver SLW or SLV because they gain on risk.

    Anyway, my two cents would say that despite the anemic nature of the stock right now, it is not the time to short.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Jun 22, 2015 9:47 AM Flag

    I don't know where you come up with this FB/ Youtube fantasy. There is one article comparing the two and all the sudden "your sources" indicate that FB is serving ads on Youtube.

    What happened to 125 by summer? Guaranteed right? Before you just throw numbers out there, consider how the stock will get there. If you think it will get there on value of its earnings, show how they are going to earn 100 billion off of revenues of half a trillion. If you think they will get there on the growth statistic show how they will go from a flat year to hyperbolic share growth. That is what you need to do to even have any credibility. Your 125 by summer was really far away so why should anyone listen to your predictions?

    As to you having the ability to buy 250000 shares of FB, is a load of bunk. FB is not a penny stock. Somewhere, you failed to learn math. That is 20 million dollars and with your other shares you have bought you must have a million shares. Beyond knowing you don't have 80 million dollars, you could have bought January 16 90 strike calls for the same price you paid for 150's a year ago. With this type of investing prowess, how would you have the money you are claiming.

    Well Rob we know you are lying again. You tell stories to gain credibility. Go ahead and say I think FB will be $500 in 5 years but don't throw this garbage out there about FB and Youtube along with you being this wealthy Wall Street type because you aren't and it is obvious.

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