There was not much movement in July 2014. FB was flat before earnings in 2013. This earnings is not similar to either. Earnings momentum appears to be good but FB has also taken good gains recently which is different than 2013.. So well see what happens.
For FB to overtake AAPL it will need to increase its revenue over 14 times. While they may let it have a higher PE, it will retract and that is almost fleeting bet in 3 years. Not impossible but not likely..
Why then did it rise on GOOG's earnings? Everything is based on how the market reacts and we cant do anything about it. It is what it is. I am not saying that in jest. It is just hard to place the market in a completely rationale frame so we have to understand how the market reacts and accept it.
There is a few days left but that is a tough bet.
I wish you luck and hope you make some money.!
When there is a lot of rise into earnings, then there is a lot of expectations.
A continuation will all depend on how FB reports. To continue they will need to surprise the market by doing better than the market expects. They will most likely have to handily beat for continuation.
........but alas earnings are always a #$%$ shoot. Anything could happen
The comparison is apples and oranges.
You have to remember that GOOG has been flat since Oct 2013. In the same period FB has almost doubled. Google also has a new CFO who appears as though she is going to cut costs. She is also a Google CFO that appears for the first time to be playing by Wall Streets rules.
FB will go up or down based on its own merit. The comparison between GOOG and FB are not relevent. FB has increased over 16% in the past month. Much of the rise will be built into the expectations of earnings.
Expectations will be quite high. While 120 is not out the question, FB will have to massive beat and show the market that it will contain costs and change its mission to appease Wall Street as opposed to doing what it feels is good for the company. Nothing is completely impossible but FB has done very well in the last couple years just to have the stock drop or stall through earnings. It then climbs between quarters. That is probability and is the way it rolls.
Do your DD and find a reason for what is mentioned in the last paragraph and you will be better able to ascertain the future of the stock. Don't look at GOOG and remember that FB has already enjoyed a good ride the last month.
Good DT. It doesn't get much better than that. Most of this is on the tail of GOOG so we should see what happens next week. I have been playing back spreads in to this rise. I think I will continue and sell into volatility.
GL with your trades and damn good job!
The rise is likely over. It may go up a little bit but it should fade the rest of the day. The options arbitrage will wrap the rest of the positions. There are not enough shorts or DT'ers to move the stock down.
I would ride the momentum and FB may hit a 100 but I would watch earnings because most of the moves on FB at least the last year and a half have been between quarters.
That is not to say it wont pop but I am usually cautious and the earnings have been pretty flat to little bearish. With that said, this is nice little run.
If FB does pop in earnings, it will be $110-$115. It has to be a huge beat because expectations will be high.
Good luck sorry to hijack the thread.
You were never on TV. Besides anyone who was on TV would not admit to buying 150 strike calls. Do you know that a person could make three times the money buying 100 strike calls if FB went to 150. Leave your dreams on the pillow.
If you have options in the money, cash in and roll ATM. Not a good idea to hold a profitable options position through earnings. If you want to play roll up, and take some profit. Then you have profit and if there is a great earnings bang you make more money.
If there isn't, then you have a little profit which you wont have if it drops.
Your are liar. So full of BS. You made 100 million on biotech and you 100 million on FB alone.
Just so you know. If you made 100 million on FB, then you would be an insider and you would be put in jail for posting. Last year you said you were going to make your first million. You also said you had around 100k contracts of 150 strike Jan 16 calls. You said by summer that FB would be 125.
Don't try to gain any credibility by making up monster stories. You are 2 bit gambler. FB will go where it goes and not by what you say.
You Post lies and I will call you on it.
Just so you go tangential on me, the lie that I am talking about is you making 100 million in 2 years. That is big lie.........A huge one. Last year you said you hadn't made your first million......At least get your story straight.
FB is he next FB stock not GOOG.
FB is 2/3's of the way to the cap of GOOG. FB has plenty more Growth in revenue but it wont likely produce 80% growth for the next half a decade like GOOG did. From here on out it will grow the way it grows and it will follow its own trajectory not GOOG's.
The analysts that have 120 targets are for end of 2016 not 2015. That's the way targets work. It could be 120 by the end of the year but not based on an analyst's target.
All of this is saying you need to look at Facebook as a company and then look at FB as a stock. You can't compare it to a GOOG or any other stock. Roughly speaking for FB to go up 50% it will need to produce roughly a little more than 50% growth yoy. In half a year that would roughly be double.
You are likely to see growth in price but it will be slower and there will be bumps in the road. FB is a growth stock and it will follow the trajectory of were the market feels its future is. It wont follow GOOG. It will follow its own growth.
You cant compare stocks on stock price. LNKD has a cap of 26B and FB has a cap of 240B. How can that be if LNKD is 200 and FB is 87.? Its the number of shares.
A lot of the times the news that comes out is bubble gum for the brain. Often the news is used to push the markets. We hear everything bad and then the news fails to materialize as the great monster that it is portrayed to be. Sometimes, however, it is right. I tend to think most of the time things like Greece are overblown but I am just one person among many in the market and the market decides not me.
The only thing you really need to do is look and see what you feel the market is going to do. It looks like you feel like the market is going to tank.
Did you know you can short GREK which is a ETF based on the Greek market. You can also play butterflies, strangles, straddles, backspreads on any ETF on the Indexes like the Dow or S&P. This means you can play it either way.
Its always hard to say and if you feel like sitting on cash for a bit its not a bad choice. You can always get back in because it wont go away. There are some other options if you want to try to play the direction of your conviction. I personally think Monday was the bad day for FB but you know what I have wrong.
Its just part of the market. There are ups and downs. If a person is long term focused, they should not worry about the stock moving day to day.
He said he would make his first million in the same October time frame. At that time he didn't even have a million and now he bought based on what he said 1 million shares about 5 times. Holy smokes, that is a lot of money in 8 months.
Does he expect anyone to even listen to what he has to say except a few inept individuals.
His options are just too far away. He needs to be $10 OTM with a couple of months left to even have an option that is worth a dollar. He bought his for couple of bucks allegedly and I say that because he claims to have bought a 200k contracts each contract has 100 shares. I don't really care what Rob thinks but he should at least make his fibs a little smaller so it could in theory be believable.
The best options are near or a little itm. Far OTM $10 out are bad bets. $80.00 out are sucker plays.
The option will be worth 0 if the stock is not above 150. It will be worthless at $120, it will be worthless at $130, it will be worthless at $140. You see you bought time and IV and by the time it gets close to expiration that value is gone. Are you also new to investing or do you not know that? So if you claim that you expected it to be between "120 and 150" at the end of the year" then you bought a contract knowing it would be worthless.
Read a little bud and find out how an option contract works.
The second part is you are shifting your lie by trying to say that you wished for it to go to 120 to 150 by the end of the year. You did say $150 by the end of the year but you have to remember that you said $125.00 by summer. Alas your shifting your argument makes you look a little bit more stupid.
Does that make sense? You are absolutely wrong about FB being over 125 by the summer. Guaranteed even. You are not worth 500 million dollars, otherwise you would be on Forbes bub. You would need 500 million to buy all the shares you claim to buy. You are wrong there.
Rob all I ask is that you come here and say what you want but don't lie okay. That is a very simple request but if you do you will be called on it. You are a pathological liar. You lie all the time. Stop it!!!
We are still laughing because the 120 target is for the end of 2016. Its only one analyst. You bought a million shares around 5 times.......I don't think you have enough monopoly money in the box and we are still laughing. You yourself just admitted to buying worthless options.
You forgot about buying more options than there was OI and you also guaranteed that we would see 125 by summer. You are not even close.