Options are next to impossible to price so far out of the money. Most of the premium is demand, however, that doesn't tell the whole story. Have you ever put a bid in for an option contract that is less than a dollar. The ask changes and you don't get a fill. This is because the demand for this option is small and one person can actually change the price of the option by an opening bid.
If you want more meaningful information take a look at the near term option that are near the money especially on near term options. Far OTM near term options are not good indicators.
Certainly does not look like it will hit 100 within a week. See what happens before next earnings. It is probably range bound until the end of summer.
There are 14 trading days left in August and in that time all FB would need to do is continuously go up $3.00 a day to reach $135.00. Yea, it really looks like that's a great possibility.
Everyone was predicting that FB was going to be a $100 a share this year so what is the big deal? Who was laughing? That does not add any credibility to your prediction that FB will be $200.
Realistically it could go anywhere up or down. It is a growth and that is the MO of a growth stock.However, price targets without NUMERICAL reasons are just wishes. You gave no reasons. At this point, if you look at FB as long term growth that you want to hold, that is a good perspective. If you think that FB is momo, then all you have to do is look at the last year and see that it is not so. If you believe that FB will hyper-accelerate its pps for no reason, then I guess you have a right to your opinion. I think FB will continue to grow and I think it is a good long term hold but it likely wont follow the same trajectory of GOOG because FB is close to maturity and when FB ipo'd it came out with 4 times the market cap of GOOG. There is less growth if it is the same as GOOG.
If this goes to $105, It will be late September to October unless of course something unforeseen happens. It is showing a typical pattern and FB looks like it will go into a range for awhile.
Despite any other trading parameters, FB has broken the uptrend and has done it on fairly high volume. As to what the range will be I don't know until it makes the first coil. There is no pressure either way so for a 10 point rise FB will need quite a catalyst.
I trade ranges with options like butterflies. I will trade volatility spreads when needed but I have been observing trading behavior of FB in mostly 2 week swings so I use standard deviations and my own self brewed statistics to trade. I would look for and identify the range and then go from there. You can always look for a factor that would cause the stock to soar but right now I don't see anything and I think it is hard to call an exact point and that is why my swing trades are a week or more. Look for the range.
2.82B x 95.12=268B which is what they list on Yahoo (2.66B actual). I am not really sure where you came up with 2.2B.
How do you get 100 for max pain? Did you know that max pain leaves the most options otm. There are not many put contracts anywhere near a 100. Max pain at 95 is about correct.
There was not much movement in July 2014. FB was flat before earnings in 2013. This earnings is not similar to either. Earnings momentum appears to be good but FB has also taken good gains recently which is different than 2013.. So well see what happens.
For FB to overtake AAPL it will need to increase its revenue over 14 times. While they may let it have a higher PE, it will retract and that is almost fleeting bet in 3 years. Not impossible but not likely..
Why then did it rise on GOOG's earnings? Everything is based on how the market reacts and we cant do anything about it. It is what it is. I am not saying that in jest. It is just hard to place the market in a completely rationale frame so we have to understand how the market reacts and accept it.
There is a few days left but that is a tough bet.
I wish you luck and hope you make some money.!
When there is a lot of rise into earnings, then there is a lot of expectations.
A continuation will all depend on how FB reports. To continue they will need to surprise the market by doing better than the market expects. They will most likely have to handily beat for continuation.
........but alas earnings are always a #$%$ shoot. Anything could happen
The comparison is apples and oranges.
You have to remember that GOOG has been flat since Oct 2013. In the same period FB has almost doubled. Google also has a new CFO who appears as though she is going to cut costs. She is also a Google CFO that appears for the first time to be playing by Wall Streets rules.
FB will go up or down based on its own merit. The comparison between GOOG and FB are not relevent. FB has increased over 16% in the past month. Much of the rise will be built into the expectations of earnings.
Expectations will be quite high. While 120 is not out the question, FB will have to massive beat and show the market that it will contain costs and change its mission to appease Wall Street as opposed to doing what it feels is good for the company. Nothing is completely impossible but FB has done very well in the last couple years just to have the stock drop or stall through earnings. It then climbs between quarters. That is probability and is the way it rolls.
Do your DD and find a reason for what is mentioned in the last paragraph and you will be better able to ascertain the future of the stock. Don't look at GOOG and remember that FB has already enjoyed a good ride the last month.
Good DT. It doesn't get much better than that. Most of this is on the tail of GOOG so we should see what happens next week. I have been playing back spreads in to this rise. I think I will continue and sell into volatility.
GL with your trades and damn good job!
The rise is likely over. It may go up a little bit but it should fade the rest of the day. The options arbitrage will wrap the rest of the positions. There are not enough shorts or DT'ers to move the stock down.
I would ride the momentum and FB may hit a 100 but I would watch earnings because most of the moves on FB at least the last year and a half have been between quarters.
That is not to say it wont pop but I am usually cautious and the earnings have been pretty flat to little bearish. With that said, this is nice little run.
If FB does pop in earnings, it will be $110-$115. It has to be a huge beat because expectations will be high.
Good luck sorry to hijack the thread.
You were never on TV. Besides anyone who was on TV would not admit to buying 150 strike calls. Do you know that a person could make three times the money buying 100 strike calls if FB went to 150. Leave your dreams on the pillow.