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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

benzilla999 151 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 24, 2015 10:44 AM Member since: Mar 29, 2006
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  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 24, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    It also will have to be the first company that earns around 70 billion dollars. Right? Its got quite a ways from earning a couple billion to 70 billion. Maybe you should wait until FB is earning 35 billion then make your claim. It wont be so much of a stretch.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 24, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    There is not one trader professional or otherwise who follows you. There is nobody with half a brain who follows you bud. You don't know math and your writing is atrocious. You live in a fantasy world.

    So don't try to get credibility by making up lies.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 24, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    These contracts are worthless unless FB goes above 90. So a triple or quintuple wont happen unless FB goes to 90.12. There is no extrinsic value in these contracts. It is way too far out.

    These contracts may cost $.20 once you get the fill. When you put the bid in the ask will rise plus you pay commission. It sounds like you are trying to make money by the stock rising and the value of the option contract going up without it going in the money. There is no value in this contract right now. With the time left there is very little extrinsic value. You aren't going to make any money unless FB is 90.

    If I was betting on a less than a nickle option, I would be betting on a 50 not a 3 or 4. Just some advise on penny options. I donb't play them. They are a rip off and if you want to make more reasonable bets go closer to the money.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 23, 2015 12:29 PM Flag

    You are very welcome.

    Good luck on your trades.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 23, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    There was a lot of buying last week. Most of the buying was big institutions most likely window dressing for the end of the quarter. I think it is hard at this point for retail to push the stock and move the price in big chunks. If the volume picks up again, you will see the big buyers are back.

    GL

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 23, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    It did punish those who were short last week. FB broke out from the consolidation so there is no consolidation pattern to speak of right now. The end of March is end of this quarter so there was a lot of window dressing. We shall see what it looks like this week. It looks like the stock is resting a bit.

  • Reply to

    Mr. In and Out...........

    by globalaverage Mar 21, 2015 11:25 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 22, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    I hope you don't mind my two cents. I have a had a lot a bets in that area. Both SLB and HAL are going to follow the oil price. If you think there is going to be a rise in oil, then they are good bets. The chart looks pretty good but I believe that SLB can turn on dime.

    OIH is one my favorite plays because it deals with more of the broad oil service and drilling. It has a very similar chart to SLB but you will get a little bit larger moves with OIH.

    Rig is a much more dangerous play but if a person is playing upward momentum in oil this will give a lot of profit.

    The value play is FCX this is both a play in oil, copper and precious metals. It is way down. I have been playing this since they bough PD years back.

    A wild card is PAL which was at a time a 10 dollar stock now it is $0 22. It has decent chart now and some say there is some room to move. I stay away from this myself. This is purely a play on Palladium.

    My personal opinion is OIH over SLB. For those who are looking for a big move RIG would be my bet. I am currently playing both FCX and OIH.

    GL

  • Reply to

    Very large volume spike this morning

    by benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 10:56 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    Its a tough one. It was just hard to see and with type of volume is was very hard get out. It just flew up. I have been playing short butterflies because of the capricious nature of Fridays. While it often gets pinned it is very hard to see anything from a week out. So I have been playing volatility rather than the lack of volatility. You should try butterflies one of these days. I believe this is one you could master..........Come to the dark side Luke.
    GL

  • Reply to

    Very large volume spike this morning

    by benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 10:56 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    It is incredible. Lets see if this continues.

    GL

  • Reply to

    Very large volume spike this morning

    by benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 10:56 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    It is tough to say but there is an awful lot of trading. At this point there is a lot of window dressing and if it continues 90 would be possible probably in a couple weeks. It could possibly run to 90 by the end of the week.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    The delta of an option position is usually less than one. A bull call spread is a fixed income position and the maximum profit is the Spread between the short and the long call. Depending on where your position is it should be close to delta neutral. I really don't know where you are coming up with a delta of 360. Maybe you mean to say that your position gains 360 per contract pairs per dollar rise in the stock. Classically, the delta is used to describe on contract in any spread leg. Options don't gain more value than the underlying, therefore deltas more than one don't happen. IV can increase and the position can go more than a dollar but the IV is after the fact and delta still remains less than one.

    A bull call spread is having a short lower position like 80 call long and 82 call short. The maximum that can be made with this position is $2.00. Most of these position that are bought a week out have offsetting costs that make the position's cost close to that of the closing premium.

    Back spreads are a pretty good way to keep the profit climbing but these are dangerous in that if your is in-between the short and long positions it is a loss.

    Good luck on your position and these are fixed income and the little money is always good. You cant make real huge gains with bull call or bear put spreads but they are also a lot safer because the delta of the two positions are often close. You can leg in and out of the position and these are very short term tradable.

    GL

  • Reply to

    Amazing Rally For FB Today

    by coolguy4you2luv Mar 20, 2015 11:09 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    It is pretty interesting day. This is one for the books. The volume has been massive for a Friday.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    So you are saying that FB will be $370 in 5 years? Good luck on that Rob. There is no such thing as revenue profit. There is revenue and there is profit.

    If you can just post numbers that are half right and not say that you know all these people, that would be great.
    Your math kills me bud. Please clean up your math. It hurts to read these numbers.

  • If anyone noticed, there was almost 4 million shares trading at the beginning of the day. It is amazing to watch the big guys trade!

  • Reply to

    split

    by ash1405 Mar 20, 2015 8:57 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 10:16 AM Flag

    no it wont.

  • benzilla999 by benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 1:21 AM Flag

    OI calls 80 69495 80.5 11780 81 12022 81.5 6129 82 5667 82.50 4048
    OI puts 80 48317 80.5 1931 81 3579 81.5 1774 82 910 82.5 2195

    A few notes:
    Tomorrow is triple witching Friday. There will be a lot of volatility

    The rise of today was in the morning and it went flat the rest of the day. There was a big burst of volume towards the end of the day that failed to push FB either up or down. At the current level buyers and sellers are matched with equal conviction.

    Watch your momentum in the morning. Don't worry about your lower pivots but watch your higher pivots. If this goes down in the morning, it falls under what is really large gravity potentially as low as $80. If it swings off a high pivot it falls in the same manner. There are a lot of sellers as well as the mm to tangle with tomorrow.

    The Key here for a continuation of today is for the volume to be very high and the conviction to be very bold.
    Feb 20 was the last up Friday and it went up around $.50 and the volume was 36M. Feb 19 had a gain of 2.71 on a volume of 46m. Dec 5 2014 was up a $1.12 and volume 24M. I believe OI was relatively low on that day. So there were two up Fridays between Dec 5th and now. This a particularly important Options expiration because this is one of the highest OI's in a long time. December 5th is your blueprint for a up day.

    Should be a wild ride tomorrow . GLTA

  • Reply to

    BREAKOUT CONFIRMED HERE

    by stevegrossostinks Mar 19, 2015 9:39 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 19, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    The stock has ranged and set new ranges for over a year. FB will most likely see more of the same. The coils are not wound tight. In the ascending triangle the stock has broken through the the bottom triggers and hasn't broken out.

    I think the best that we can say is that FB is in consolidation and that is the pattern. If it breaks out, then it could rise quite a bit especially if volume is high. However, the stock could also drop when it exits consolidation.

    The trend is positive and biased upward. If it breaks the so called triple top, then most likely the trend will increase. There is not a lot of pressure in any pattern. Now if there is a large buy from intuitional buyers, FB will rise just based on a sheer change in volume.

    The big problem with breakouts is that FB has been held on Fridays due to option expiry. If there are a large amount of calls in the money, it has a negative effect on the stock. This is due to the way the mm's unwind the option position.

    To have a sustained breakout, FB needs to get past Fridays. It does this if there is enough volume compared to itm call option oi. The thing that people do not realize is that the big momentum has left. This doesn't have to be a bad thing but expect share price growth to be slightly less than actual bottom line growth because of the retracting multiples.

    Overall, I think the great big moves are not going to happen and FB will remain going up in chunks. It would be nice if FB could make that big jump. Maybe after earnings if they inspire the market. You do have to look at past year and follow the trend as opposed to the counter trend. The trend has been slightly up so it should remain.

  • Reply to

    fb

    by william_manny Mar 18, 2015 11:29 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 18, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    It wont be approved just like that. No such Rumor.

  • Reply to

    WESTERN UNION is dead!

    by fb_in_at_50 Mar 17, 2015 7:26 PM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 18, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    I used to send money via Western Union internationally and the rate for $1000 was $20.00.....They would have specials and sometimes it was $12.00. I don't know where the $80.00 came from unless it was sent a couple of times. I don't like or use Western Union for other various reasons. I also have a relationship between my bank and an international bank so fees are less.

    There are a lot of other services similar to WU like Moneygram, XOOM, and Walmart.

    I have not had the pleasure of trying to send money via Square, Snapchat, nor Venmo. I don't know if there are any glitches. Then again I don't send money domestically.

    While I would like to see Western Union six feet under because they are arrogant and godlike. The problem in reaching our goal is that WU has a network (I will get back to that a little later) If you send money internationally, you have two transactions that cause high fees. One is the spread between the currencies which is often is a couple of percent and also the bank fees of foreign banks. I have sent money via Paypal to Asia and the bank fees were exorbitant. Also Paypal will only let me send money to my destination in the local currency not dollars. The key to Western Union's success is that you can send the money in dollars (The spread at money changers is much less than the spread at banks). Also WU has gigantic networks set up internationally and even services like MoneyGram are tiny and cant compete in some places. There are a handful of free services starting up and there are some limitations as far as amounts to be sent so maybe WU will have their domestic business drop.

  • Reply to

    Are you ready for a surprise this week?

    by artbyxxx Mar 14, 2015 2:13 PM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 15, 2015 9:00 PM Flag

    ps a collar ( sell calls buy puts) would be biased on the stock price. Buying an itm put is going to cost more than the protection affords also if the stock goes up there would be a higher loss due to a higher premium. A couple scenarios would be short a 78c and long a 78p or maybe short a 80c and long a 78 or lower put.

    I am just talking through it because I agree that it is pretty strange.

    GL

FB
83.30+0.29(+0.35%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT