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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

benzilla999 124 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 24, 2015 11:34 AM Member since: Mar 29, 2006
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  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Apr 19, 2015 11:39 PM Flag

    I don't know what you are calling a C&H but I can guarantee that it is not the same pattern described by Bill O'Neil.

    FB broke out on Feb 9th from 73.45 and went to the high of 86.09 on March 24th. That is quite a big breakout. There is no base and there are no coils FB already had a huge breakout at almost 12 dollars and also reached its all time high. It may consolidate again if it makes more coiles or it may do well depending on earnings. There is no pressure per any type of coiling pattern, or C&H.

    This doesn't say that FB wont go up on a fundamental event nor does it say it wont go down. I am not betting either way. I will wait for the dust to settle after earnings.

  • Reply to

    Earnings trumps all here - $100 very possible

    by aftermath1765 Apr 18, 2015 10:37 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Apr 19, 2015 7:18 PM Flag

    If you want to guess .60, good luck. I would however hope that you are holding and wanting and not trading that number.

    Despite what happens, I don't think there is enough mono to take it to 110. That is almost 90 billion dollars.

    GL

  • Reply to

    Earnings trumps all here - $100 very possible

    by aftermath1765 Apr 18, 2015 10:37 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Apr 19, 2015 7:09 PM Flag

    I think 88 is a resasonable point if you are long and holding. However, I would not trade it with the recent performance. It has been a stinky market for FB the past year.

    GL

  • Reply to

    Earnings trumps all here - $100 very possible

    by aftermath1765 Apr 18, 2015 10:37 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Apr 19, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    $.65 is quite a bit more than the $.35 consensus estimate. That would be quite a beat. That number seems to be pulled out of the air.

    Aside from that number. FB has never jumped $20 on earnings. $100 pps is a tough bet right after earnings. With a great earnings and super cc, they could see $100 between quarters but even that is not real likely with the way the stock currently moving.

    I am not here to say the FB wont do well but the days of the momo are gone and I would assume that you have a big option bet that needs an incredible rise in short period of time to make money.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Apr 17, 2015 11:43 PM Flag

    This is the last 6 months.

    Purchases N/A 0
    Sales 5,863,410 65

    Holy smokes where are you getting this? I hope you don't seriously think that the insiders bought 67 million shares.

  • Reply to

    Day One

    by wwtimewarp2000 Apr 13, 2015 11:26 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Apr 15, 2015 5:34 PM Flag

    Its the trading game
    and It's Mr_in_out
    Hes into dt'ing
    He'll make money no doubt.

    He ain't got a gat
    but he does have a mouse
    He kills the trades
    right there in his house.

    Day one day two
    it does not matter
    none makes more money
    none is badder

    sorry yoiu should not have said rhyme :/

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Apr 5, 2015 11:50 PM Flag

    Not fear mongering nor foolish. If you see logic, more power to you.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Apr 5, 2015 11:47 PM Flag

    Wow dude!
    Your reply is tangential to your original thesis. it does not answer and has nothing to do with the value of stocks above a 100b market cap.

    .........but lets look at a few of your points.

    335% is made up number. The ad growth was still big but there was a reason for it. Following is an excerpt from Facebook's filings with the SEC:

    "In 2014 compared to 2013, the average price per ad increased by 173% and the number of ads delivered decreased by 40%. The increase in average price per ad was driven by a product change related to certain non-News Feed ads during the third quarter of 2014, which decreased the number of ads displayed but increased the prominence of each ad"

    The question I have for you is would you invest in FB if it had no growth? Probably not. At least I wouldn't and 99% of the most other people wouldn't. If people invest in the stock because it grows, then the stock is called a growth stock. If you want to compare value, look at the 40+ stocks that are valued above 100b, only one has a higher PE.

    You can look the definition up or you can make it up if you want to.

    Because of FB's growth, the pps is increasing. Very simple and not convoluted.

    PS: Stocks breakout due to big buys with big volume and momentum following. They don't breakout due to value (or at least I think that is what you are saying). I had a good laugh on that one.

  • Reply to

    Wanting to Buy before earnings

    by steveowensby1950 Mar 31, 2015 3:35 PM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Apr 1, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    Now if you are looking for a good entry point, history does not guaranty a rise into earnings. There have been some good rises and drops into earnings. The stock has had most of its mojo in the middle term of the quarter. FB has been the stock to own by a lot of institutions. There was very high volume buying last week and the week before most likely for funds to show they had FB in their portfolio. The quarter's over so most heavy accumulation is done by the big boys. This is not to say that there wont be institutional buying but that a good portion of expectation buying is done.

    Most accumulation by institutions are done. The rest of the rise into past quarters has been fickle.

    I will suggest this and it tends to cut across the grain of most people because we want to buy at the lowest point and of course sell at the highest point. If the stock is already falling, it is more likely to fall in the future more than it is to rise. If a stock is rising, it is more likely to rise into the future than it is to fall. This brings up many trading philosophies and methodologies based on what us traders call counter trend trading and that is to find the bottom. There are many patterns, stochastics, ect. that are used to find these points but most are fairly hard to pinpoint. What ever is causing the stock to go up is likely to cause it to keep going up and what ever is causing it to go down is likely to continue.

    Earnings is a #$%$ shoot. We all like to look at the message and create our own scenario for what the stock will do. The bottom line is it goes where it wants to go. If we look at the past and we want to look at the best point to buy it would be midpoint in the quarter. This has been prevalent for the past couple quarters. That is just probability,

    With all that said, you may get a good rise and a good earnings if you buy now but you may also lose some money. I will repeat that to find the best point you will want to buy on an uptrend.

    GL

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 30, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    That's right and FB does have a lot of good things going for it.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 30, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    Here are all the stocks that are above a 100b market cap: CEG ,MO. BIIB, MA, SLB,UNP,MMM,UTX, BA,MDT,BMY,UNH,QCOM,CVS,PM, AMGN,PEP,CSCO.INTC,CMCSA,IBM,C,V,BAC,MRK,T,AMZN.KO,DIS,ORCL,CVX,VZ,PFE,PG,JPM,FB,GE,WMT,JNJ,WFC,MSFT,BRK-A,XOM,GOOG,AAPL,

    They are in order from lowest to highest. Only one has a higher PE than FB and that is AMZN.

    FB is not a values stock. It is a growth stock. It is not valued as a value stock. The only stock that is above 100b cap that is valuable than FB is AMZN. FB will go up or down based on how the market views its ability to grow into the future..............and I repeat............It is not a value stock.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 30, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    Where does Apple come into this dude? They only make a little over 40 billion after taxes after everything. Apple is the antithesis of what you are trying to say. Apple earns 4 times FB revenue. They make tons of money.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 24, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    It also will have to be the first company that earns around 70 billion dollars. Right? Its got quite a ways from earning a couple billion to 70 billion. Maybe you should wait until FB is earning 35 billion then make your claim. It wont be so much of a stretch.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 24, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    There is not one trader professional or otherwise who follows you. There is nobody with half a brain who follows you bud. You don't know math and your writing is atrocious. You live in a fantasy world.

    So don't try to get credibility by making up lies.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 24, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    These contracts are worthless unless FB goes above 90. So a triple or quintuple wont happen unless FB goes to 90.12. There is no extrinsic value in these contracts. It is way too far out.

    These contracts may cost $.20 once you get the fill. When you put the bid in the ask will rise plus you pay commission. It sounds like you are trying to make money by the stock rising and the value of the option contract going up without it going in the money. There is no value in this contract right now. With the time left there is very little extrinsic value. You aren't going to make any money unless FB is 90.

    If I was betting on a less than a nickle option, I would be betting on a 50 not a 3 or 4. Just some advise on penny options. I donb't play them. They are a rip off and if you want to make more reasonable bets go closer to the money.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 23, 2015 12:29 PM Flag

    You are very welcome.

    Good luck on your trades.

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 23, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    There was a lot of buying last week. Most of the buying was big institutions most likely window dressing for the end of the quarter. I think it is hard at this point for retail to push the stock and move the price in big chunks. If the volume picks up again, you will see the big buyers are back.

    GL

  • benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 23, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    It did punish those who were short last week. FB broke out from the consolidation so there is no consolidation pattern to speak of right now. The end of March is end of this quarter so there was a lot of window dressing. We shall see what it looks like this week. It looks like the stock is resting a bit.

  • Reply to

    Mr. In and Out...........

    by globalaverage Mar 21, 2015 11:25 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 22, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    I hope you don't mind my two cents. I have a had a lot a bets in that area. Both SLB and HAL are going to follow the oil price. If you think there is going to be a rise in oil, then they are good bets. The chart looks pretty good but I believe that SLB can turn on dime.

    OIH is one my favorite plays because it deals with more of the broad oil service and drilling. It has a very similar chart to SLB but you will get a little bit larger moves with OIH.

    Rig is a much more dangerous play but if a person is playing upward momentum in oil this will give a lot of profit.

    The value play is FCX this is both a play in oil, copper and precious metals. It is way down. I have been playing this since they bough PD years back.

    A wild card is PAL which was at a time a 10 dollar stock now it is $0 22. It has decent chart now and some say there is some room to move. I stay away from this myself. This is purely a play on Palladium.

    My personal opinion is OIH over SLB. For those who are looking for a big move RIG would be my bet. I am currently playing both FCX and OIH.

    GL

  • Reply to

    Very large volume spike this morning

    by benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 10:56 AM
    benzilla999 benzilla999 Mar 20, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    Its a tough one. It was just hard to see and with type of volume is was very hard get out. It just flew up. I have been playing short butterflies because of the capricious nature of Fridays. While it often gets pinned it is very hard to see anything from a week out. So I have been playing volatility rather than the lack of volatility. You should try butterflies one of these days. I believe this is one you could master..........Come to the dark side Luke.
    GL

FB
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