My goodness. They aren't going to buy shares.....They haven't and they won't. Insiders get shares. They do and the will continue to get shares so they print shares. If you have a problem with it, why don't you ask them why..
Read my lips...........The Whatsapp deal has not closed.
This is from the 10-k filing:
In February 2014, we entered into an agreement to acquire WhatsApp Inc. ..............................if the closing of this acquisition has not occurred by August 19, 2014. This date may be extended by us to August 19, 2015, if as of August 19, 2014, certain closing conditions applicable to Facebook (other than the receipt of certain regulatory approvals) have been satisfied. We currently expect these conditions will be satisfied and that we will extend the date to August 19, 2015.
They will eventually advertise on Whatsapp but not for awhile and definitely not before the Whatsapp deal is closed which is pretty close to Jan 2016.
Everything else you are talking about is tangential to this discussion and your hard proof of whatever on Facebook is boring me.
Search blah blah blah..........yawn
This is not about how or where FB will go but just asking the original poster to not spread lies. You and he appear similar in argument and writing style.........Boy howdy!
Who are the insiders that are buy? None have so far and they can print new shares so why would they buy?
What phone app? Home?
Whatsapp has not even been announced as a closed deal and it may not close until a year from now.........Read the 10-K. They have also stated that they have no plans on putting advertisements on Whatsapp.
You are making stuff up. If you want to gamble on FB hitting 150 by the end of next year, that is your choice but honestly stop it with the nonsense............Please!
Your world can work any way it wants. What is fact? The $77 target or the $100 target. I do believe both of the later would be conjecture and I do not remember your $77 target.
I did not make a statement as to where the stock is going.
I am a bit confused as to what my opinion is. Is it that no one else has called a $100?
The numbers are all yours . It doesn't go to a hundred because you say so. It is the whole market that decides.
That's where you want it to go. Remember if it is at 100 sometime next year, there are probably a hundred other people on this board who have said the same thing before you.
No one gets instant credibility.
The number of grants of either options or RSU's don't become a cost until they are exercisable. I believe they don't become a liability until they are exercised or converted..
From the following share statistics, you can see around 29 million shares per quarter become outstanding shares. 36 billion per quarter become dilutive.
Dilutive shares (weighted ave): Q12013: 2.407B Q12014: 2.560B
Outstanding shares: Q12013: 2.44B Q12014: 2.60B
Roughly speaking, there will be a little more than 300 million shares that will become outstanding as of the closing of the Whatsapp deal. These would include shares from Oculus which has closed These will be investments and will not appear against income.
That is your share statistics. They announce shares available for grant earlier in the year but the RSU's and options expenses really have nothing to do with the amount of shares granted in the quarter.
4 billion earnings sounds quite high.
You get a gauge of the trend and should be able to see where it moves in the fall. While I don't believe in long term price points at that time you will have a better gauge of where the stock will go.
None of your reasons are specific reasons for FB to rise. They are feel good....FB is growing; the amount of users are incredible, or any of many superlatives. I know that you would like for it to be there but you cant just make price points based on what you want to happen. If you are holding FB right now, you are doing well. If the future is a mirror of the past, then you will continue to do well.
........price points do not serve the average long term investor. However, people who invest in options want it to be at a price point by a certain time because of the nature of options. There are a lot of people dreaming of being millionaires from options.
Markets do not move from point to point and if you watched a lot of option plays lately you will see most people failed in getting the type of return they wished to make. The market will not move to a point because a stock "deserves to be there".
If you are a long term holder of FB, you have done well. If you are a trader, you will find swing trades any more than a week are very hard to set up Remember, you cant just get a piece of paper and list reasons for a stock to perform and then expect that to happen.. If you forget things on the list which will be utilized by other market participants, then your prediction fails.
You are correct in making a statement about not using valuation metrics for FB. However, you don't ignore them. You are also going back and using a valuation metric when you state that you should ignore it.
A couple of things. A multiple and PE are two different things. PE is present and multiple is a future projection. The key difference between a multiple and pe are that multiple is non-GAAP and a pe is GAAP. On a value metric, you are calling FB a $125 stock based on $1.75 eps. Based on the numbers at a pps of $125, FB will have a pe well over a 100.
A couple of things:
1) FB is a growth stock and its price is based on the market. Let me explain this. The market will value the stock and its perception can change with risk, with comparison to other high caps, or it can retract when growth slows. As much as we want to put a value on it, we really cant. It is not a value stock. It also cannot be compared to AMZN. They have two totally different dynamics.
2) FB will not always have a high PE. When the growth slows, the PE will retract.
3) Don't debunk value metrics and then go back and use them.
With all due respect, I think FB is doing quite well but we can't go and use our own numbers to put a value on it. Right now FB is a $73.20 stock. It is trending upward and doing well but that can change.
I am not trying to be contrary but what struck me the most was you stated that FB could not be valued on a value metric and then you use value metrics to value it at $125. On top of that you use a "multiple" instead of a PE.
I would look for near term trends and try to ascertain where the stock is going to go. Look at growth and project a long term value for FB but don't try to contrive its value. Its value is not based on just your idea. It is based on the whole market.
Beautiful volatility. Now, if it could do this everyday, can you imagine the money that could be made?
Yeah i know............Take it will you can get it.
The stock will not become outstanding until the quarter that it closes the deal. The shares will become immediately outstanding. This is the number used to determine capitalization as well as PE.
Earnings numbers are different:
As far as the number of shares that are used to determine the eps, the dilution will be split up over a year. So it enters at 1/4 the amount each quarter. This is called weight averaging.
People have already reacted to purchase of Whatsapp so the there wont be a drop. Overtime it may make a difference in that part of the income growth will need to be used to overcome the extra shares but since it is averaged in over a year it is not very much compared to the current growth of FB so it will not really affect the stock too much.
I think everybody got into GOOG at the ipo. It was a dutch auction and individual would not have got 3000 shares. It was 100 in a blink of an eye. Anyone who had 300k in a portfolio dedicated to risk has a pretty big portfolio.
Most of the time when someone brags they are fibbing a little (and sometimes a lot).
I believe that FB will make it to a $100 based on just how it is performing in the market right now. However, $100 is not a certainty. FB trades on the markets perception not on value. FB would have to increase earnings by 8 fold to grow into that value which is a long ways a way. If and when it hits $100, it will have to grow into that value.
If you want to hold your stock and you believe that it will fall, sell calls against your stock. This has to be a strong conviction because if the stock goes up you may be forced to sell it to meet obligation on the calls.
If you believe it will fall far, you can collar it..................sell calls and buy puts with the premium from the calls.
Or you can buy puts as an insurance.
Options are always risky but a person can hold onto a stock with options and not have loses when the stock drops.
This might have just been a cautionary statement. It does not state that they wont close by August 19,2014 but just that they may not. There have been some news stories indicating what the reporter thought in regards to this statement in the SEC. Most thought it wouldn't close but I don't believe that is what Facebook is saying. We will all know on August 19, 2014 and there should be many articles written on this subject at that time.................. Especially if the deal does not close.
This is straight from the 10-Q filing with the SEC. You can find this on SEC Edgar. Note that it is expected to close in the second half of 2014. If it does not close by Aug 19, 2014, they will forfeit 2 billion in cash and securities. It sound like if it does not close on the previously mentioned date, they will extend the date by one year.
"In February 2014, we entered into an agreement to acquire WhatsApp Inc. (WhatsApp), a privately-held cross-platform mobile messaging company, for 183,865,778 shares of our Class A common stock and approximately $4 billion in cash, subject to certain adjustments such that the cash paid will comprise at least 25% of the aggregate transaction consideration. After closing, we also expect to grant approximately 46 million RSUs to WhatsApp employees. The value of the equity component of the final purchase price and RSUs granted will be determined for accounting purposes based on the fair value of our common stock on the closing date. This acquisition is subject to customary closing conditions, including certain regulatory approvals, and is expected to close in the second half of 2014. We have agreed to pay a termination fee to WhatsApp of $1 billion in cash and issue a number of shares of our Class A common stock equal to $1 billion, based on the average closing price of the ten trading days preceding such termination, if the closing of this acquisition has not occurred by August 19, 2014. This date may be extended by us to August 19, 2015, if as of August 19, 2014, certain closing conditions applicable to Facebook (other than the receipt of certain regulatory approvals) have been satisfied. We currently expect these conditions will be satisfied and that we will extend the date to August 19, 2015."
Dude what are you saying? You make no sense.
Speaking of the worst type of comment, you are posting spam!
Mark it with what?
If you say it will hit 80 next week enough times, maybe it will.
But this "MARK THIS POST" because I'm da man and I'm going to show you guys............................
================= Is getting old.
Post some facts or something of substance.
Mark this post? I see the same thing 10 times a week so why should I mark it..
Maybe you should say something original........hmmm?
Oculus has always been doing well and they are a innovative company. I don't know where "no one gave them a chance".......They were given rave reviews. The only thing people questioned was why Facebook bought them.
I am not questioning it either good or bad ...............However, people expected the company to do well and it looks like Oculus has a good product but the jury is out on whether they justify their purchase price and help Facebook's other products.