To me the question is will the market consider this quarter to represent "normalized" earnings from ops. Clearly the earnings from ops in q1 and q2 were going to be very difficult to maintain. But can they more safely repeat this q? If so 0.32 times 4 equals 1.28. Pe of 12 equals a SP of 15.36. Back out cash (which is growing in all likelihood between ops and warrants) and you could argue for a SP of 17. Follow margins from there.
I think if margins stay were they are now, the stock will trend toward 15 in the next few weeks. As usual, follow the margins
I have listened to every CC in the last 2 yrs and you know as well as i they dont tend to answer these questions in a meaningful way. Its such an obvious question for an analyst- break down kinergy ops Neil? Lets see if an analyst asks. If no analyst asks its safe to say its pretty obvious why they arent asking
Look at the numbers yourself, as far as i can tell Kinergy lost roughly ten mill the last 4 quarters. If so that is not a good business model at all. Maybe i am missing something in that ten mill, like madeira costs? I very well could be wrong, clarification on CC would be nice, but wont hold my breath.
And i fear its even worse than that. Its not just timing. They could be buying at midwest prices and selling at west coast prices. How would that not be a solidly winning strategy? This unit needs to go imo
Somebody is making a ton of money on the other side of these kinergy trades the last nine months. By my math to the tune of over 10 mill. Hope im wrong as that is a ton of money
For the last nine months in all ops the adjusted net income (ignoring fva and ext of debt) was 50 mill and $2.26 per share. If you take out the Kinergy ops , income would have been at least 10 mill higher. Or 60 mill and roughly $2.60 per share. Its been a great nine months in ethanol production ops
As far as i can tell for the last 4 quarters taken together , kinergy does not have small positive margins. They are solidly negative. Somebodys making some nice $ on the other side of these trades. Lol hope im wrong....
Maybe i will grow some cojones and ask about this. If you just look at ops, this should be a 20$ stock. But i dont think the market will overlook some of their issues aside from ethanol production
The CCs are a joke. Usually no guidance and just softball questions. I am holding because operations are very strong
To my untrained eye, Kinergys losses are the problem moreso than the warrants, ie Kinergy has been a huge sink hole for PEIX more often times than not in the last year. What is going on w Kinergy? Just from an operations perspective, PEIX should be a 20$ stock imo. Get rid of Kinergy!?
Are you saying earnings would have been almost double this q if Kinergy did not exist? Ie instead of 0.32 in earnings w Kinergy, earnings would have been about 0.62 Without Kinergy? If so and you look at the last 4 quarters, Kinergy is killing this company.......#$%$ is going on? You say maybe they should hedge......maybe they should wind down the whole unit!
So in summary 3422 is 5 years behind sovaldi and in that five years all they came up w was freaking deuterium. You have got to be kidding me
Could be! Did you know pharmassett began phase 3 trials of sovaldi in 2011, it was approved in 2013. 3422 is currently in phase 1, so we are looking at 2019 for approval. 2018 at best. Do you know how many millions of people will be cured by sovaldi/harvoni in that time. It is staggering!
Map out the timelines for 3422. Ie when does it enter P2, when does it exit P2. When does it enter P3, when will it be finished w P3. When does it hit market? Prob 2019 at best. Thats assuming it even makes it out of P1. Achn has never progressed anything past P2 mind you, ever. Go back and study how long it took sovaldi to go from end of p1 to end of P3, achn is so far behind it isnt even funny. Why do you think insiders have been dumping