Great post !! I think some knowledgeable people are coming to this MB, and it's great to read such a logical thought. Given Baupost's investing strategy, I may have only one concern: - we are going to wait for longer to see something that every long side small investor wishes to see: buyout or the drug marketing breaks the wall at global levels.
1) As you said, Baupost's average cost basis was around $14.00 for majority of its KERX holding. Unless they have substantially added during this past quarter, it wouldn't go down much.
2) As a major shareholder in the company, I guess, they would have some sort of "say" when it comes to a buyout deal so that they would maximize their returns on investment. For example, they would want to play with taxes ( their holdings should qualify for a long-term tax rate, at least, one year holding period). For that reason, since they have been accumulating until recently, we may need to wait until after a year period to talk about a possible BUYOUT.
3) If the marketing breaks the wall and the drug proves its acceptance - that would be a big win for everyone except the shorts.