So I am on a 500 mile road trip and I do my 220 miles in a Tesla. There is no super charger so I find a 100 outlet and plug in for 12 hours and continue my trip. Oh yeah I forgot I am supposed think this is a good thing because I can go to a fast food restaurant and eat French fries while I am waiting.
ROB should we be giving $7,500 federal tax credits for people that can afford to buy $100,000 Tesla's ??????? Lets see 20,000 Tesla's @ $7,500 = $ 150,000,000 per year that the government can rake in .
Go to the Tesla Forum and look for Bjorns first trip video. He drives the car in Norway snow and cold weather. It's about 20 minutes long. During the trip you will see him get range anxiety, watch him freezing inside the car because he had to turn off the heater,Watch him doing 50 MPH as traffic roars by him, watch him panic because he can not get the charging port door open . In the end he said he was satisfied. He received kudo's from his fellow Teslarians . LOL I had the complete opposite reaction after I watched this video, I said this is not for me.
One of the more amusing stories I read was that a Tesla owner from NYC went on a day trip to Montauk Point Long Island. He started to panic at 9:30 pm at night when he realized he would not make it back. He called the Tesla hotline and they put him in touch with another Tesla owner who lives in Glen Cove about 30 miles from his final destination. He went to guy's house at 10 pm and charged his car for 3 hours and had coffee with this fellow until 1 am. They talked about how much they love their cars. LOL
Miki, you have used the term " bean counter" in a derogatory sense in several of your posts. It's like you are trying to cast those who look at facts, figures and numbers as if they are out of touch and whose opinion should not be considered in a discussion on stock valuation. It is a undisputed fact that Warren Buffet is the ultimate bean counter. He buys stocks with proven track records that have stood the test of time. Last time I checked he was the and still is the most successful investor the planet has ever seen. Perhaps you should buy a bag of beans and start to learn how to count them.
Crocster I enjoyed your from way up above reply. At first I was going to point out the reservation numbers show no growth but concluded you need to combine the unit sales per quarter plus the ending reservation balance to get a truer picture of demand. In both your presentation and mine the conclusion is the same, the demand is static and there is zero growth. As far as the Apple comparison I do not buy into the fact that TSLA is a tech company with cutting edge technology but the bulls seem to think so, therefore I used it. Tesla is in the most capital intensive,cyclical and competitive business there is. That is why automobile companies trade at low P/E's and close to book value. TSLA is a million miles away from those metrics.
If you truly believe that demand is flat then you do not have a hyper growth story that warrants a stock trading at a 93 forward P/E and 31X Book and a 14 PEG. The Super Charger Network is not a profit center. Also the Model X will cannibalize Model S sales once production starts up.
No I am saying there is zero growth in the Model S using the past 4 quarters numbers. The combined numbers(cars sold plus reservations) starting in 4 Qtr 2012 are : 27,951, 27,828, 27,476, 27,540.
"your 411 units drop represents a 1.5% drop. That's just noise. " . This is a drop regardless and my point is that it is not growth. You need to look at just the model S because this is where actual ongoing demand for the product can be determined. You need to ignore the Model X because it does not yet exist. So to get a accurate picture use the Model S where demand equals car sold plus reservations remaining. For the past 4 quarters this number has stagnated as follows : 27,951,27,828,27,476 and 27,540. This is a flat line not a trending up line that shows significant growth. Again this is before the fires. I believe most of the bullish analysts project 40,000 unit sales of the Model S in 2014.
Miki were is the hyper growth that justifies a forward 93 P/E ??????
You should also note that the 3Q 2013 numbers are before the three fires occurred. We know by watching the VIN thread before it was removed that demand collapsed starting in October after the fires to a rate of 350 cars a week.
Right after Sandy there were gas stations open that ran on Generators. However you had to travel out of your way to find one and wait for a hour. It is similar to what a Tesla owner has to endure on a daily basis if he uses the Super Charger network.
You do realize that the stock is priced for hyper growth . Disregard the Model X reservations since it is now being pushed out to 2015 and look at their the reservation numbers for their current offering the Model S. Take the units shipped and add the reservation balance q 4 2012 and you get 2,400 +25551=27,951 model s units. Now do the same for q 3 2013 and you get 5,500+22,040=27,540 units. So in 9 months demand has dropped by 411 units. Where is the hyper growth that warrants a 93 P/E. To put this in context since you bulls like to compare this to Apple think of the iphone when it was first introduced, did the demand stagnate or go down after the first 9 months after you were able to buy it.
A friend of mine had new solar panels installed on his home in early 2012. Every time I saw him he would show me a app on his Iphone that told him how much money he was saving. He borrowed about $40,000 to have this system installed. Than in November Sandy hit and destroyed his home solar system(mine too). The flood insurance would not cover the solar system. He is still fighting with them and the solar company.
Thanks for the reply. I think the IPO will serve to bring in some cash and help establish a baseline valuation for this subsidiary. One other thing I like is that they have a huge tax carry forward loss that will enable to shelter future income for years to come and give them better pricing power. I added more yesterday. For some perverse reason I like that my basis in this stock is way below Stillwell's.
This could be the beginning of the long awaited comeback of KFS. Stillwell has a lot of cash and time invested in this project and based upon his past track record he has the ability to turn things around. This KFS investment has certainly been a challenge for him. However it appears that they are finally heading in the right direction so I have placed a sizable bet alongside management.I would love to hear some feedback from anyone with more knowledge and insight than me.
What about the folks that can not get into their cars because the presenting door handles are frozen in place. The presenting door handles were Elon's design and he was adamant that the car have them. They have been one of the biggest problems since day one, even in milder climates.