You do realize that the stock is priced for hyper growth . Disregard the Model X reservations since it is now being pushed out to 2015 and look at their the reservation numbers for their current offering the Model S. Take the units shipped and add the reservation balance q 4 2012 and you get 2,400 +25551=27,951 model s units. Now do the same for q 3 2013 and you get 5,500+22,040=27,540 units. So in 9 months demand has dropped by 411 units. Where is the hyper growth that warrants a 93 P/E. To put this in context since you bulls like to compare this to Apple think of the iphone when it was first introduced, did the demand stagnate or go down after the first 9 months after you were able to buy it.
They use to give out reservation numbers on the model S but suddenly stopped does this concern you ? Now they are telling buyers not to report their VINs does this concern you ?
Go to the Tesla Forum and look for Bjorns first trip video. He drives the car in Norway snow and cold weather. It's about 20 minutes long. During the trip you will see him get range anxiety, watch him freezing inside the car because he had to turn off the heater,Watch him doing 50 MPH as traffic roars by him, watch him panic because he can not get the charging port door open . In the end he said he was satisfied. He received kudo's from his fellow Teslarians . LOL I had the complete opposite reaction after I watched this video, I said this is not for me.
How can this possibly be true. Do you think Elon lied to us when told us last conference call that there is no demand problem. Perhaps he meant to say there is no demand and that's a problem.
Has anybody bothered to look at the Vin chart that has been resurrected by a new guy at the Tesla forum. Based on the latest update this week, the vin issuance looks to be just above 200 cars per week . The chart looks like a Greg Louganis swan dive. Of course now that it has dropped down from the over 600 car pace it had in September, the same people that were cheering on the merits of keeping the Vin chart are doing everything to discredit it.
One of the more amusing stories I read was that a Tesla owner from NYC went on a day trip to Montauk Point Long Island. He started to panic at 9:30 pm at night when he realized he would not make it back. He called the Tesla hotline and they put him in touch with another Tesla owner who lives in Glen Cove about 30 miles from his final destination. He went to guy's house at 10 pm and charged his car for 3 hours and had coffee with this fellow until 1 am. They talked about how much they love their cars. LOL
You should also note that the 3Q 2013 numbers are before the three fires occurred. We know by watching the VIN thread before it was removed that demand collapsed starting in October after the fires to a rate of 350 cars a week.
A friend of mine had new solar panels installed on his home in early 2012. Every time I saw him he would show me a app on his Iphone that told him how much money he was saving. He borrowed about $40,000 to have this system installed. Than in November Sandy hit and destroyed his home solar system(mine too). The flood insurance would not cover the solar system. He is still fighting with them and the solar company.
No I am saying there is zero growth in the Model S using the past 4 quarters numbers. The combined numbers(cars sold plus reservations) starting in 4 Qtr 2012 are : 27,951, 27,828, 27,476, 27,540.
Crocster I enjoyed your from way up above reply. At first I was going to point out the reservation numbers show no growth but concluded you need to combine the unit sales per quarter plus the ending reservation balance to get a truer picture of demand. In both your presentation and mine the conclusion is the same, the demand is static and there is zero growth. As far as the Apple comparison I do not buy into the fact that TSLA is a tech company with cutting edge technology but the bulls seem to think so, therefore I used it. Tesla is in the most capital intensive,cyclical and competitive business there is. That is why automobile companies trade at low P/E's and close to book value. TSLA is a million miles away from those metrics.
The Teslarians also said the road debris car fires were fake and that the shorts caused them to manipulate the stock. It turns out they were not fake and the only stock manipulation I see going on is done by Musk. You should go to the forums and you will learn that melting wires and plugs have been discussed many times and have been a concern. The Irvine fire department said in it's report that it was the Tesla charging system that caused the garage fire. Of course Tesla disagrees with this because Elon is a genius and the Germans looked at the data provided by Tesla and gave them a clean bill of health . Oh and reporting a faulty NHTSA claims to manipulate the stock is against the law.
Won't let me. Are you going to the Tesla Motor Club ? If so try search again. Type "tesla warranty" . It is the first thread that pops up.
so that he can put a group of these synthetic organisms and send them to Mars. Do you think he will introduce these clones when he unveils the Hyper Loop, Electric Plane or the Model E. I am certain we will see the Clones years before we ever see the Tesla Battery Swapping Station rollout.
Miki, you have used the term " bean counter" in a derogatory sense in several of your posts. It's like you are trying to cast those who look at facts, figures and numbers as if they are out of touch and whose opinion should not be considered in a discussion on stock valuation. It is a undisputed fact that Warren Buffet is the ultimate bean counter. He buys stocks with proven track records that have stood the test of time. Last time I checked he was the and still is the most successful investor the planet has ever seen. Perhaps you should buy a bag of beans and start to learn how to count them.