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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

beststockstoownnow 370 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 18, 2014 11:09 AM Member since: Dec 6, 2012
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  • Because, as stated often by many, the stock price NOW reflects projections of sales years away. If Volkswagen for example has a new battery technology four times better coming, as indicated, this runs into Tesla projections directly. tesla is not Apple or Google with billions in revenue and cash on hand. Its value is ALL about sales years from now. If anything disrupts this, the stock plunges. We will see many, many innovations coming on because others have not been idle for the last decade. Couple this with planning to build abattery factory and it gets even more risky. Will they end up with an outdated technologyfor example?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It is beyond funny how hard they are trying to justify and hold up this overbloated stock price. They come up with projections going out to 2022. Folks, seriously, that is 8 YEARS AWAY. And those price targets are couched in all kinds of cute wording to deceive people.IMO What they are saying simply is this: IF Tesla performs to perfection, AND sells all the cars they can possibly do over the next 8 years, then the price might actually double! If you invest your money at 8% folks it will double in 8 years! This is almost criminal, IMO, and is the height of B + S from vested interests or just plain deceptive stuff. Put another way: do you want to wait 8 years to see if a stock might double over that time, while cutely their closer in valuations are ALL lower than the current price. Talk about leading the dumb, this has to be some sort of new low. Get fooled once, or is this more than that for most of you??? LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This is exactly what I think happens here for the next few YEARS. Over at Solar City, his other stock : "But the stock is down more than 1% this morning after the firm guided to lower and warned on narrower margins.

    Citing that, as well as increased operating expenses, Goldman's clean tech team is ratcheting down its 12-month price target .." It is now down 6%. But the important point is the guidance. You pump these stocks up with rosy, almost impossible promises and then when they start to deteriorate, after raising money at high price of course, you start to bring down the expectation, until you need more funds, and then you start the routine all over again. So many here, just do not get it. This is a great concept and probably achieves some success, maybe even becomes great, but it IS YEARS AWAY, and markets and momentum players are not going to wait years. So valuation will assert over time and bring this down big time.IMO Of course after all the pumping and media hype. Sell: risk ridiculous compared to reward.IMO

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow by beststockstoownnow Mar 19, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    Most everything is over priced. These sorts of markets and frothy stocks do not end well. You are being given the golden opportunities to get out before all the hedge funds dump.imo Nobody to blame but yourselves if you take huge losses after such big gains.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This is such a stupid price, that after it really comes down, many will say what they ALWAYS do after bubbles and manias burst. Uh du I should have seen that. I was warned ten different ways. Uh I will learn, but of course they do not! It is always the same, but here not: it is NOT different this time, its the same old thing. Sell or lose.IMO

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 19, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Expensive to own, and ends up costing about $1 per mile in true costs. This is against a range of about .35 to .75 for other cars available ranging from low to high priced vehicles. No way you sell millions of cars unless operating costs are at least close and is as convenient to run. Will America buy in mass a car that costs more per mile to operate and does not have the range of cars costing far less. AND it does not get better, because costs are dropping for many competitors with new technologies coming on over next couple of years. Reality check for those who can think.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 19, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    They would not do that would they? You mean they would promote stock, put out higher and higher targets, after selling or acquiring paper? No never, we are talking about Wall Street, which we all know is run by upstanding, moral guys mostly with your interests at heart! What was that movie about? roflmao

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    SHORT INTEREST JUMPED TO 31,295,800 SHARES.

    by bikingeagle Mar 11, 2014 4:24 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 19, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    Not about GM. Overvaluation here is the question. Shorts probably selling and taking profits on various conversion scenarios. Dilution continues, sales dropping in California? Not a good combo. Forget GM and focus on reality here.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 19, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    It never changes. One sign for sure is wild price predictions based on nothing but momentum. If you are objective, and look at the facts here, this is ripe for a big fall. When, now that is always the question? Until it happens, those who are very enthusiastic will scream, see, we are right. Of course they are until they are not, yet history is that once wrong, seldom do these ever return to their manic highs, unless story unfolds perfectly over the ensuing years. If you buy these sorts of situations at overblown valuations, one has to wonder why. The risk for a correction of large scale far outweighs the reward possibilities. Here, ask, what is it I think is really going to happen? Short term momentum based move up? Based on what, more aggressive calls also based on pure momentum? So when does that end. Look at similar situations, but far better cash flows, cash on hand, profits etc etc.. Apple comes to mind. Even it got too high and dropped big time from euphoric top. Here, you wait for years to see IF this company can even meet the very optimistic forecasts, which EVEN IF CORRECT, then would justify the CURRENT PRICE. It is almost a bad joke for investors now, because you are betting on 100% success YEARS away to justify your purchase price today! Stupid is what stupid gets, and here this represents VERY POOR logic, or even potential over many companies with potential where it is not already priced in. But that is the nature of sheeples, they are last in and then watch all their money disappear, then amazingly sell where they should have bought, at the bottom of course. Will it happen here? Looks very possible. Greed and mania, gets them EVERY time, as they are led by more than willing voices into stupid moves.IMO

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 18, 2014 11:44 PM Flag

    This like buying biotech before any clinical trials on new drug candidates. Lots of speculation, incredible claims, but years to go all fraught with potential failures on many levels. But people rush in and then have to wait years for any real proof that things go as planned. Often crashing multiple times, before either success or failure, years from the initial excitement, hype and overvaluations and ridiculous claims. That really IS reality folks, but good luck, however you play this. I see substantial downside over short to mid timeframe.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • beststockstoownnow by beststockstoownnow Mar 18, 2014 11:29 PM Flag

    If it is the next big thing, then it can go higher, but even then it is less than double its current price, and that will take years. The point is, why would anyone buy it now? This story is so far ahead of reality that the slightest indication that it does not exceed all expectations and down it goes to realistic price. Play it as you like, but this is not where i would put money now.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    TSLA vs ZAAP

    by blissoflovejoy Mar 18, 2014 12:46 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 18, 2014 10:49 PM Flag

    Can a knock off Tesla be far behind? For sale online in China! Everything else is copied, so why not Tesla car?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    TSLA vs ZAAP

    by blissoflovejoy Mar 18, 2014 12:46 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 18, 2014 10:46 PM Flag

    Competition and price. Two things which count over time. Initially it is novelty, fads and being the first for a small percent. Then its who has the thing that fits the real needs of the masses. When it comes to cars, overall cost to operate is huge. Within a couple of years you are going to see a lot of competition from both electric and fuel cell cars, along with breakthroughs in new technologies, largely I think in the fuel cell arena.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    If you own a Tesla and need repairs

    by earneststeve2003 Mar 17, 2014 7:44 AM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 18, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    Repairs may be lower, while battery costs are higher. Fact is total operating costs seem higher for the Tesla from all information I can get.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    If you own a Tesla and need repairs

    by earneststeve2003 Mar 17, 2014 7:44 AM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 18, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    I have done some research and as best I can figure it, the TCO a Tesla Car is currently around $1 per mile. This compares to a range of as low as .35 to about .76 for other cars. You can do your own research to verify this. It seems to take into account everything from resale value, ongoing costs, fuel, insurance, maintenance and everything else. Do the math yourself if you think this is not correct. The question of course, is how many people will pay more to drive, and/or how much more, and how much the "cheaper versions" will bring down this cost difference. These figures seem actually giving every benefit to high cost of battery replacements as they take everything at what Tesla seems to indicate is the best case. Will be interesting to see how this works out, as I see higher costs to operate as being a hurdle to mass sales.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Very nervous week ahead if you hold TSLA long

    by stockspy1 Mar 16, 2014 8:49 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 16, 2014 11:22 PM Flag

    Whether the top is in or it perks up a bit, this is a top that looks far more like something to sell into than to buy late.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    I'm a victim

    by n0m0renancy Mar 15, 2014 9:36 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 16, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    Scaling up is a huge issue here along with growing list of issues. Reality bites!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • He can spend tons of money and time in court, but it will not help the bottom line for many years, even if he was lucky enough to prevail. Which I doubt at this time will happen anyway.
    Said it before: this is ALL about scaling up. The problem ALL these startup concepts have in huge established industries. This is NOT the internet. This involves, heavy service, warranty, liabilities, manufacturing, suppliers assurance, and even getting cars to clients. When its small volumes as is the case now, it is far easier to look good and grow. When big volume happens, issues do not get simpler, until you have set up the infrastructure to handle the complex issues. They lack that big time. Reality check.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 14, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    I disagree. Tesla looks like it is ready to head down even further. TA looks bad, any news is mitigated by rising issues with respect to sales, profits and viability of Battery Plant. Now add on rising issue of Graphite Supply and surrounding serious issues with respect to Environment Graphite is creating where current supplies come from. (China) If China continues to cut back on Graphite, I can see them building their own plant, using their own supplies. Why wouldn't they? They have the technology, low cost base, and supplies to outproduce at lower costs, with the biggest market guess where? Right at home! As I have said many times. Folks here are not looking at competition, which will definitely respond and faster than many think. Here it is mostly talk, with "I think I can" . The hard slugging will cost more and take longer than folks here are calculating, even if, and I think that a BIG question mark, there is marginal success. Result: over priced stock declines to under $100 moving forward. People now, they are just starting to realize the problems here are enormous. Watch the price drop as reality changes there view on the risks here.IMO

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow by beststockstoownnow Mar 14, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    The dream continues. All the real analysts know this is overvalued, and they say as much, but couch it with, uh well it could go higher. Of course, anything can go higher. Real Estate in 2006-2007 it could go higher, but why did it crash? Tech stocks on Nasdaq 2000 they could have gone higher, but why did they crash? Tulip Bulbs, Cabbage Patch Dolls, Gold 2 years ago they all could go higher, yes, but they crashed. The FACTS are oh so very simple. When you drive anything up and sheeples herd in and start to pick prices out of thin air based on momentum, it is usually the top. AND even if it isn't the upside potential is FAR exceeded by the downside risk. That is why it is so funny here. Forget what it has done, focus on what it could do given even your best expectations, and how far away those really are from now. Your upside seems small, very small if anything, and the downside is looking big. That is why before it was a great investment in so far as a stock play, and now it simply is not, regardless of how you see this unfolding. Risk versus Reward: and timing. It ALL says there are FAR better choices out there now. And that my friends is actually the fact of the matter.IMO

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

EXEL
3.29-0.03(-0.90%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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