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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

beststockstoownnow 174 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 2:16 PM Member since: Dec 6, 2012
  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 5, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    Biotech is all about timing. Those that act as though the expenses racked up here or elsewhere are some plot against shareholders are largely just wrong side frustrated investors. Understanding that biotech is risky, fraught with heavy expense, delays, bad news, rejections etc etc etc is a critical part of getting into this sector. Soooo many do NOT understand really, and approach it like they deserve to somehow make multiples on their investment, and quickly, without doing much in the way of DD, Risk Analysis or being realistic. On the other side, for those who like this sector, there are huge gains, if all goes well AND you get your timing right. I would say, one of the biggest mistakes is being too soon. IE IP and technology are exciting, so folks rush in without realizing just how much it will cost and how long it will take. BUT, if you wait, and buy when all the early excitable crew have sold in frustration largely, and in fact the outcomes from trials are much closer at hand, you have a better chance, sooner for huge rewards. Of course that is not any guarantee of success, but it does, from my experience narrow the odds, sometimes in your favor. If you are looking for multiples, big potential that is real, biotech is one route. So now here? It looks good to me. We are near some results, cash on hand and no debt. Which in and of itself is a good thing. Outcomes, look very promising, or why would I be here. The wimpy whiners here, with their endless dribble about nothing, are mostly past losers. The fact now: good results will over power ALL else. That is the reality. I think we get them. Play it as you like, but if you decide to play, it looks very cheap at these levels. but EXPECT VOLATILITY ALL THE WAY.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It wasn't a Big loss ( not to me ) but -

    by dhudson100 Dec 5, 2014 8:27 AM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 5, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    Who is going broke? Must be you. Some of us are UP here, not down like you. Who is smart you ask? Certainly not you it appears.buy it on the pull back, which is typical of this sort of move. Now that would be smart, but being you, who would expect it?LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It wasn't a Big loss ( not to me ) but -

    by dhudson100 Dec 5, 2014 8:27 AM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 5, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    What we seem to see hhudson is a bad investor who played this wrong and is now obsessed and hoping to see this company fail, so you can mentally cope with your mistake. Of course the irony is you sit for years waiting and then sell JUST when you should be accumulating. In other words, you are the perfect contrary indicato. Not untypical in biotec arena. Too bad. Act or move on. You are wasting your time because why would people listen to you about this stock. By your own admission you have gotten it wrong. By the way, we who accumulated at the lows are doing well! Its a strong buy.IMO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    You Long's Keep Hyping -

    by dhudson100 Dec 4, 2014 2:26 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 4, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    The fact is dhudson says he sold this back in October after holding it for years and taking a big loss. So now he spends his time trying to justify and show how he knows what he is doing. For those who bought over the last while, they are quite possibly looking very good right now. There is nothing unusual about the activity here. Its biotech. Volatile, risky but with huge potential. No chance of growing broke any time soon, Why? Cash and no debt. Fact. So those who like the ongoing potential from Phase 2 and 3 trials and hold, the outcome could be spectacular because it is not trading with any premium at all at this point. That may change shortly. But one thing is for sure: results will rule here, and all these naysayers do not have a clue as to the outcomes there. Again: this is biotech, and you get in hoping for good results, and if such occurs you make multiples on your investment. That IS the case here, and nothing changes that. Play it as you like. I am holding for outcomes, not blabber from past losers here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    You Long's Keep Hyping -

    by dhudson100 Dec 4, 2014 2:26 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 4, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    Complete nonsense. This is biotech, and this company exhibits exactly the traits you expect from these situations. They bring new products through the process of discovery to trials and then success or failure. It costs money all the way. If they succeed, as looks very possible here within months, then the stocks and caps rocket. Most have debt, which is not the case here at all (ZERO DEBT) and lack cash, also not currently the case here. I do not mind analysis, but cut the B+S. My take is, for this stage and potential, vastly undervalued, and not a chance, not one chance that this is going to .05 or anywhere near it. By the way, Canadian Stock Markets are taking a big hit today. That has influence on this situation short term. Longer than a couple of days: value asserts, price goes up. But you wait for your nickel, and keep posting! LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 4, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Nothing has changed, other than the traders grab some profits. The undervaluation always proves the winner in the end as one way or another value will assert. Share price moves up or buyout offers arrive, If you say you are a long term hold, you ignore the gyrations and wait for that to occur. Especially in this sector. That is my position. Has worked for me over and over again. Short term traders love this sort of volatility and I wish them luck, but history says they get it wrong more than right. Just the way it is. It is worth more than the current cap. EOS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 3, 2014 10:16 PM Flag

    The reason it would be so much higher is simple. A low ball offer will be rejected, but it would have the effect of driving up the price and bringing on competition and statements about value. This upwards revision of value would be at least $2+ IMO. This is not about a low ball hostile offer that will succeed, as it will not, its about convincing a widely diversified group to sell, and that will take a far higher price than currently. Most holding for a while, or those recently acquiring shareholders understand this is worth FAR more. The weak have largely been shaken out over the last while. First they were driven out be languishing stock, but with a brief speculative binge from some, who were then disappointed and cut loose by news, and were very short term speculative types anyway. They were going to sell on a spike or a drop, as they were waiting for news, which of course they expected to be good. Then, those left after all that, were shaken out again by phony ambulance chasing lawyers. Who is left? Think about it? The strong, who are not going to part in any big way with their shares on the cheap, because they have already gone through the worst, and they KNOW IT Accumulate before this moves up far more.IMO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • beststockstoownnow by beststockstoownnow Dec 3, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    At around 50 million currently, this is almost trading on cash value. No debt, deals, partners, IP, Phase 2 & 3 Trials ongoing and looking good. Where do you find this? Is there a U.S. company looking for lower tax rates, and would like all those tax loss write offs? You can actually make a rational case for a buyout from the U.S. where it costs them nothing! We shall see who has the real value correct. My bet: heads to $5 range this coming year. EOS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • beststockstoownnow by beststockstoownnow Dec 3, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPY.V+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%225d%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%2C%22comparisons%22%3A%7B%22AEZ.TO%22%3A%7B%22color%22%3A%22%23cc0000%22%2C%22weight%22%3A1%7D%7D%7D

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 3, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    So far you would have almost doubled your money by buying AEZ.TO and selling this. How much more? Watch!

  • Reply to

    I already own shares...

    by danish428 Dec 3, 2014 11:47 AM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 3, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    I did not see that. Anything significant?

  • Reply to

    I already own shares...

    by danish428 Dec 3, 2014 11:47 AM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 3, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    When to buy? It depends on what your approach is. Do you even know? Are you short, medium or long term. Say you are trading this, then you would have expected a pull back after move up. How much does it pull back? Could be as much as .20 but I doubt that will happen, more likely .06-.10.IMO If you are not trading and are longer term, ask again, what is your outlook? If you believe, as some, this is heading for multiple dollar range over next months to couple of years, edge in on this drop. You will probably not hit the exact bottom, but get a low ACB. I am a long term accumulator of this stock. Why? I think it is vastly undervalued. I am very used to volatility in these biotech issues, but look for value and potential, along with good balance sheet. This has all three. Remember: this IS a risky sector, with big wins and also big crashes. This is already heavily discounted, so I think downside very limited. Play it as you like. I am buying a bit more now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 2, 2014 10:09 PM Flag

    Its the stock market, its about timing and DD. Most just follow the herd, are sheeples buying in after big moves, selling at lows in a panic. The best buy here without a doubt was days ago when it was in the 50's. Some told you many times, this was and still is WAY undervalued. Yes VALUE was and is the issue. You will not find similar situations, where there is cash, no debt, potential for billion dollar drugs in Phase 2 AND 3. The joke is that the smallest of the potential was the one that has the problem. Which by the way is far from being insoluble. But even without it, this should trade well over $2. JUST LOOK AT THE CAP! Then compare to other biotech issues, saddled with debt, not even through Phase 1 tests. And that folks was why some of us bought big and said so days ago, when very low. Now, I still see huge upside, with little downside. And those ambulance chasing jokes of a bunch of law firms. Watch it just fade away and produce nothing for anyone.IMO This is a steal. Its that simple.IMO NOtice the naysayers can't come up with a solid fact to refudiate value, other than moaning about their past bad timing. This is about NOW. Sorry losers, but that is the reality.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 2, 2014 9:57 PM Flag

    Take a look at my tout since recommended. AEZ.TO up about 50% already and on volume. Headed to well over $2.IMO

  • Reply to

    Joke

    by dilyz125 Dec 2, 2014 3:53 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 2, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    The potential here for multiple price increase is real. I do not want this bought out yet. Let the value get reflected over the next months. Patience could be a very good thing here. This is a buy. No amount of B+S spin can change that. Irony is, the bad news let me buy a whole bunch of shares really cheaply. Gotta love the panic sell off folks. I did say buy when at its lows and still do here, where it is extremely cheap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 2, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    The only sell off likely or even possible to occur here short term is day traders taking profits, which is not to be unexpected, considering the run over last two days. Long term holders risk further gains if they play the guessing game minute to minute. Nobody knows where it fluctuates short term, but medium and long term look fantastic for continued major move up. Shorting a stock like this is purely stupid. My accumulation has worked out fantastically to date. Any big pull backs, I will buy more. EOS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 2, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    AEZ.TO on a roll. Gave you a gift on that one.

  • Reply to

    I'm Chasing AEZS All The Way To $3.00!!!

    by rootbound43 Dec 2, 2014 11:10 AM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 2, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    I picked up even more, and am holding for at least 1 year or buyout comes. This was soooo undervalued it was a joke, and it still is.IMO This stock, with no debt, cash and huge potential should trade at $2+ minimum without any news.IMO Value always asserts in the end. As it will here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 1, 2014 10:12 PM Flag

    It was true for the last weeks, true today, AND true tomorrow. Its not about day to day fluctuations, its about the FACT that it is grossly UNDERVALUED, with or without news today.IMO Of course the news IS GOOD. Do not let the fools try and tell you different or spin a negative twist on it. When you have no debt, cash on hand, with extremely low valuation, and are smart enough to spread the risk without giving up the gravy train, its called smart. This biotech could easily move up multiples from here, with little downside of any sustained length for the next year.IMO BUT in that same period of time: upside could be VERY BIG. That is the situation. Play it as you like. I am long as stated many times, with a great position and will hold through all the games for the end prize. If you like biotech, I suggest doing the same.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Dec 1, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    Are you watching it? Are you missing it? AEZS or AEZ.TO did tell you clearly.

EXEL
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