I would not be long a core position if I expected bad news, but to say in this sector that it is unrealistic to consider that very real possibility is plain stupid. This sector delivers more bad news and huge drops than any other, and almost every other day or week there are occurrences of the same. The dream in biotech is believing that it can't happen to whatever stock you hold. I do not expect bad news, but realize clearly the possibility of it occurring. That possibility, along with sudden announcements of private placements at discounts are very common, and often catch the "dreamers" who get all emotional and excited while forgetting reality. Here, I do see manipulations, and sometimes that precedes these sorts of placements. If I was trading this long, hoping to catch a gap up soon, I would be buying call options, because if the news is good, stock will move up dollars, and if bad down more than I could buy certain calls for, right now. I choose to just sit and wait out whatever games happen in the meantime, as I already traded and basically paid for my core position here. Play it as you like. But B+S is rampant here and elsewhere, when it comes ot risk. Risk in this sector is always high. EOS
Maybe. But they can also suck in short term long traders before dropping it or worse delivering bad news. The most obvious questions? What are the results and when do they raise more money. For short term folks, which comes first?
One close look at the trades extending over a year back, says, manipulations here are evident. Little matter if anyone agrees or not. What is important for investors is the outcomes of the trials ongoing now. However, for all those day trading folks, the manipulations are very important. I see them playing folks here, which is why I will only trade if it goes back down to my often reiterated ranges. If not, I will just keep it on my screen and hold my core. The manipulations, are there to extract shares and hold ranges connected to certain positions and strategies, along with funding. I expect lots more manipulations and shake outs. Along of course with breakout. Play it as you like. For investors and core positions, this is a screaming buy, if you know your risks. IMO Potential multi dollar up moves coming within months now. Let the games roll on.LOL
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It is not complicated at all. CABO is in multiple phase 3 trials, aimed at proving it up for major markets. UNLIKE many/most of these biotech situations,(take here for example) it has approval for THIS product, albeit for a much smaller indicated market, but sales are going well within that approved market. Given that it has been getting used with safety and efficacy already established, the bigger markets await. So UNLIKE other situations, the risks of safety issues are FAR LESS. Anyone who does not grasp this simple fact is missing the risk/reward profile here big time. And what are the chances of its use spreading to FAR wider application? BIG chance, as all indications to date are positive (thus we see widening of trial targets). Not only that, but it appears to be the ONLY current medication effective against bone mets in Prostate Cancer. This has been shown already, So all the games, manipulations, market gyrations, short positioning and other sundry B + S is a joke, because the simple FACT is this: if the trials prove up, as I think they will, and sooner than later IMO, this will gap up and go to multiples of the current price. Of course there are no guarantees, there NEVER ARE, but this is as close to a risk reduced biotech explosive upward move coming as it gets. And that folks is WHY it IS different. So get played out of your core position if you like, trade it, if you think you can beat the manipulators, but at this juncture I will just hold my core, and add should it drop back down to my buy range for additional shares. If you do not have a position, I would get one now.IMO Less
EXEL has approved drug now in Multiple phase 3 trials for far wider use. No problem with safety, and appears to be ONLY product that works for Mets in Prostate Cancer (big markets) So with low risk (safety established) and huge expanding markets, big up moves coming. Do not say I did not give you a perfect place to diversify and make huge profits. EOS Do your own DD and see for yourself, why Roche is their partner in other promising stuff, but EXEL OWN 100% of CABO, the big winner.
Why? Go to EXEL board for explanation. If you like biotech, you have to like EXEL. EOS
It is not complicated at all. CABO is in multiple phase 3 trials, aimed at proving it up for major markets. UNLIKE many/most of these biotech situations, it has approval for THIS product, albeit for a much smaller indicated market, but sales are going well within that approved market. Given that it has been getting used with safety and efficacy already established, the bigger markets await. So UNLIKE other situations, the risks of safety issues are FAR LESS. Anyone who does not grasp this simple fact is missing the risk/reward profile here big time. And what are the chances of its use spreading to FAR wider application? BIG chance, as all indications to date are positive (thus we see widening of trial targets). Not only that, but it appears to be the ONLY current medication effective against bone mets in Prostate Cancer. This has been shown already, So all the games, manipulations, market gyrations, short positioning and other sundry B + S is a joke, because the simple FACT is this: if the trials prove up, as I think they will, and sooner than later IMO, this will gap up and go to multiples of the current price. Of course there are no guarantees, there NEVER ARE, but this is as close to a risk reduced biotech explosive upward move coming as it gets. And that folks is WHY it IS different. So get played out of your core position if you like, trade it, if you think you can beat the manipulators, but at this juncture I will just hold my core, and add should it drop back down to my buy range for additional shares. If you do not have a position, I would get one now.IMO
Sentiment: Strong Buy
"As part of my ongoing efforts to highlight interesting binary events for small-cap biotechnology companies, I had the opportunity to discuss this week with Dr. Eric Schmidt, a managing director and senior research analyst at Cowen, about two of his favorite small-cap biotechnology companies, which are approaching important catalysts and binary events, such as clinical trial data releases. Dr. Schmidt has been recognized in polls conducted by Alpha Magazine, Institutional Investor, Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal. Prior to joining Cowen and Company in 1998 he was a vice president covering the biotechnology sector for UBS Securities. He holds a BA in chemistry from the University of Pennsylvania and a Ph.D. in biochemistry from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology."
Put it this way, I think his view is credible, and it happens, I admit, to agree with what I have said and felt for some time. As well this stock is being accumulated, from my observations, with very smart manipulations to coax out shares from the nervous. Although, why, at this point, folks would be talked out of their investment, when the most exciting period ever, in this companies history is about to unfold. That is simply a fact, that ANY DD would indicate. Not saying it guarantees anything, but if you are into this biotech sector, this is a shot that I would not be missing.EOS It couls EASILY run up four or five times the current price on the outcomes over next months.IMO
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well that is the thing with trials and outcomes, nothing is guaranteed, but with approval for one indication and ongoing usage, odds say we have a great chance at the big win here.IMO Why? we do not hear anything beyond current approved known side effects, about bad outcomes, unforeseen to date, or indications with users currently that have caused concern, and that is actually the biggest test of all, as I see it. You can test away, but if current users get benefit, and it gets prescribed additionally, it is a test in itself as to safety and efficacy. As mentioned, in the full article, it appears usage is spreading to outside of its indicated specific approval now. And why would that be if results are not promising to date???
Yes: buy EXEL It is going much higher. Read below:
Yoffe: There is a bear case on COMET-1 Phase III trial that states that the trial may miss its primary endpoint for being underpowered. What is your impression?
Dr. Schmidt: Based upon the trial design of COMET-1 being similar to other recent studies in mCRPC (Zytiga, Xtandi, and Xofigo) and the fact that these studies were halted at the interim analysis due to highly statistically significant data, I believe COMET-1 is overpowered to demonstrate any meaningful efficacy for cabozantinib.
Yoffe: Do you believe that the strong efficacy of Xtandi and Zytiga may increase Cometriq's hurdle to achieve significant survival benefit in mCRPC?
Dr. Schmidt: COMET-1 is testing cabo after Ztyiga and/or Xtandi. Once a patient fails one of these androgen-based drugs, they tend to respond poorly to anything else in the cascade. Hence I do not think post-trial exposure to Zytiga or Xtandi will confound the results.
Yoffe: What is Cometriq's market potential in mCRPC?
Dr. Schmidt: We think a later-line drug in prostate cancer could deliver sales of ~$500MM in the U.S.
Yoffe: What is your opinion on the company's ongoing commercial launch of Cometriq in the U.S.?
Dr. Schmidt: Cometriq has surpassed all expectations for early sales trends, likely due to off-label utilization. Although the commercial opportunity for Cometriq will likely be modest pending success from at least one of the ongoing trials, we interpret the off-label interest as a favorable signal.
Yoffe: Do you believe that the company's other programs will result in commercial products?
Dr. Schmidt: We expect Roche's (RHHBY.OB)/Exelixis's MEK inhibitor (GDC-0973) to succeed in an ongoing Phase III trial in melanoma in combination with Zelboraf. EXEL is entitled to 30-50% of U.S. profits on this candidate.
Yoffe: How far can Exelixis go with the current funding?
Dr. Schmidt: We believe the company is financed into 2015 and through the key COMET-1 and COMET-2 readouts
Article is out already. http://seekingalpha.com/article/1748372-interview-with-cowens-dr-eric-schmidt-these-2-biotech-stocks-could-outperform?source=email_rt_article_readmore
But we know that the manipulation of this stock goes on, as usual. That means, they try and hold it down on up days, and keep it from tanking on bad days. This is a great market day, so they hold the line, if possible. For long term investors, or even medium term (up to 1 year) this is a very good speculation.IMO Trading it now?? They like to beat the traders down and play with them. It is obvious. I continue to hold my core position. Nothing has changed, except prospects look better than EVER.IMO
Same old stuff. Buy and hold, ignore the noise and trading here.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
They just can't help themselves. Same old stuff. So obvious isn't it? Keep the core, play as you like, but they love to fool folks short term, by getting in those day traders and squeezing them out on penny action, hoping to drag a few other shares out from the nervous. Want to make big money here? Buy and hold at this juncture and ignore the induced volatility. Stock heads to double digits over next months.IMO If you can't handle the volatility, this is the wrong sector. If you can't handle manipulations, this is the wrong stock. IF you ARE willing to actually invest and hold, and speculate on an unfolding multi billion dollar expansion of sales and cap here, buy and hold.IMO
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Not so sure of that, but it could happen, and if so I will buy as stated for the trade. This stock is heavily manipulated, and it has been obviously the case for a long time. So trade with care, as they like to try and fool folks. When the market tanks, they draw lines for holding the price. When markets explode upwards they do exactly the same thing. As you say, it is all a short term play, and we are probably in at least scene three of a five act play. Scene four, realization CABO worth billions by the masses and shars explode upwards on heavy volatility. Act five, price climbs even higher over time as cash rolls in. Of course big pharma is out there watching and will move on this if given a chance. My take from all of this: same old, trade the lower range if it goes back down, hold or acquire a core position and ignore this portion with respect to volatility. We are into the club house turn as we approach 2014. Remember, this stock has traded to $6 and above EVERY year for past decade. There is nothing new going on here, other than the manipulation is more obvious than ever.
My trading here within an established pattern worked well for me. I pointed out MANY times: do not mix up your trading with long term outlook. Why? This is a highly manipulated stock, outside and aside from the potential for explosive growth and price movement over time. Nothing has changed. It moves outside my comfort zone on a trade, I trade elsewhere, BUT hold on to the core position regardless of what happens short term. If it were to move back down to my trading range, I would do it again, otherwise no. As for investment, long term, still think it has the most upside potential in the biotech space, with on of the lowest risk profiles. Why? Drug already approved, so odds of problems on the safety side greatly reduced, while everything still points to success and far broader applications, meaning billions in potential sales. Where do you find this risk/reward profile. So as the forces that be play, I win here no matter what happens now. Why? Core has ridiculous ACB from trading profits, while upside looks huge. So they run it up or down, and I just wait. Over time NOBODY can hold down the price if all proves up, as I suspect is the case, or why would I hold the core in the first place. Thanks to those powers that play, they have made my day! LOL
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This is great, right here for INVESTORS, willing to ignore volatility currently. CABO franchise is nearing explosive period for news. I have large core position. As for trading currently. Its a #$%$ shoot, but not boring for those who can handle increased risks of short term decisions. I chose to be out on the trade side, having sold the trading block for $5.13 . Would not sell one share of my core block regardless of market volatility. Why? Because it ALL looks great here for now and 2014 in terms of real developments. There is no doubt in my mind you have somebody acquiring shares here in a consistent way. What does it mean? Not sure. but they buy on the drops. That is reality. Those who have been critical of my posts in the past, usually forget to mention, I have been 100% on target here. and am very well positioned, and have not changed like so many on emotional nonsense.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
EXEL has what everyone will want. A better drug for Prostate and many other major Cancer groups. But why is it WAY less risk than here? BECAUSE the drug it has is ALREADY APPROVED for one small indicated cancer group. And why is this sooooo important? Because it takes OUT the very risk you saw here occur, as the safety profile is ALREADY KNOWN. Check out the latest results for CABO (as its called) for Prostate. The ONLY drug shown to be really effective against bone mets. The results of the ongoing multi trials Phase 3 are coming soon. This will be a blockbuster, multi billion dollar slam dunk deal. Buy it on any pull backs, but the action now suggests big accumulation over the last couple of months. Note how you are getting large blocks bought on every decline over last couple of days. Its being accumulated. Do not say I did not give you a great way to recover your losses here over the next few months folks. Do your own DD, and come to your own conclusions, of course. I suggest buying for investment EXEL, and forget the volatility going on currently in biotech. This one is ALL about what is coming over next few months, and somebody is accumulating big time over there. That is obvious if you look at trades.
Never left pal. Still with the core position, but have not, and will not trade unless it comes back down. Done well on other situations re trading. Babble on, but I have made money here, and have basically a zero cost on my current position, as my trading profits were great here. A bit too complicated for the REAL BOZO clowns. Are you one of them? LOL