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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

beststockstoownnow 367 posts  |  Last Activity: 41 seconds ago Member since: Dec 6, 2012
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  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 10:19 PM Flag

    So typical of the hype crew here. First we do not know you, and whether you even own a Tesla, and second your comment about Paulo, so typical of people who can't refute factually a single thing he says, but try and put him down. Complete nonsense. His article is both, clear, lucid and from my point of view factual, without any emotional or irrational comments. You on the other hand, say nothing that has any substance at all.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Is this the next big winner?

    by beststockstoownnow Mar 11, 2014 4:35 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 9:23 PM Flag

    I will accumulate as it pulls back. This looks highly manipulated. Is something about to happen?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 9:15 PM Flag

    Of course it is ridiculous. Its like a Ponzi scheme. You do it for a while, eat the expenses while promising more and more sales, until you either collapse, fail to service, or charge more. Like Ponzi: the promise and early delivery depends on more suckers to dump in money so you can service and keep the early in folks happy. Thats how I see it. Is Bernie Madoff being considered for the BOD???? ROFLMAO

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Tesla back on top in Norway in March

    by justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 19, 2014 6:48 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 9:09 PM Flag

    You are just reiterating the fact that the initial figures represent first adopters, who appear to buy regardless of issues. What you do not address interestingly, with a buy rating you profess, is how crazy then the current price is, as it DEPENDS on rapidly growing sales without any drop offs, get it??? That is the problem with MANY LONGS HERE. The model and projections seem completely out of whack with what is going on in reality. And this Paulo guy is even pointing out more specifically the same thing. Its your money. So if you want to invest in a company fully priced, while explaining YOURSELF that it probably is not going to sustain the growth or stock price because it needs to meet the projections 100%+ JUST TO JUSTIFY the current price YEARS FROM NOW, and that seems unlikely. Yet some how magically you call it a buy and thus must believe the price of the stock rises, go for it! Makes absolutely no sense, but go for it my friend. Nobody is going to change my view on this being WAY over priced, until without emotional B + S nonsense about who is the next Guru, or visionary, or trend setter etc etc being the reason why all is great here, actually addresses the issues now coming to light, and seemingly very factual. Facts: car sales seem to be tapering off in existing markets. Cost are high to operate and own. There seem to be quality issues which would cost a lot to fix if not on warranty. Competition is not idle and saying they have battery technology 4 times as good. And not the least by far: when a stock fully prices in the next multiple years of growth, which has not even begun to happen in terms of projections, where is the upside versus the downside and why would I invest late, EVEN if all comes true????

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Tesla back on top in Norway in March

    by justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 19, 2014 6:48 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 8:51 PM Flag

    I did some research on this. We are talking first about the Tesla, not the Volt. You can go on Google, search out Cost to operate Tesla, or similar search terms, like TCO for Tesla, and search through the first page of returns. You will get some very detailed analysis of the costs. This is not just about how much it costs you to fill a tank, or charge batteries. The Total Operating Costs for any car is a bit complicated. It would include: cost, depreciation, service, insurance, maintenance, interest or lost benefit of cash spent, and is usually calculated on what is a published average mileage used per year over some number of years. Usually 5 years is used, but some use 3. I am not about to do all the math, as there are pages on this already done. The cost for Tesla was aprox. $1 per mile. While the costs for a whole range of cars sold in the U.S. excluding the Tesla was .35 to .75 range. If you want to do the math. feel free, but do your homework first so you see how detailed some have already been with respect to this situation.
    I tell you this though: after reading the articles on cost per mile and the new Seeking Alpha article, I am more doubtful than ever about how this rolls out over time. It does not look good to me. Play it as you like.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • His conclusions:
    "Again, more data shows up directly contradicting the "production-constrained" story. This time, the data is regarding the existence of a speculative lot of Model S cars in Germany, able to be bought on short notice.

    While I expect Tesla to be able to meet its Q1 guidance if it plays the "delivery shortening" card, things are looking more and more ominous in terms of deliveries for Q2, or indeed, for the whole of 2014.

    Finally, some doubts are also creeping up regarding the Model S' reliability. That's a situation that merits monitoring and waiting for JD Power's verdict "

    It follows exactly my line of thought here posted often over the last few days: Tesla is filling a niche demand, that is self limiting. So what they are doing, is moving to new markets as sales taper off in existing ones, it appears.
    The article points out as well, what I have been warning repeatedly about. Service and quality issues, especially as they ramp up sales, if they ever do. But it is very hard to discount what appear to be serious issues with the car, and seemingly very expensive ones to face, both in terms of reliability, inconvenience and costs. Read the article before you longs freak out at the conclusions. Then check out validity, which when I did seemed to indicate the comments being factual. This HAS TO BE A CONCERN! If this proves to be correct, this stock will crater.IMO

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 6:36 PM Flag

    Ya right. Wall Street backing this on the ride of pump and dump, issue paper, take commision checks and sell suckers stock at grossly inflated prices is more like it, in my opinion, of course. Use their affiliate TV shows and personalities to sucker in many, it seems to me. But what is their record to date: real estate, now they really did that for the family cause, right? Nicely packaged up all those mortgages and sold them because they cared! Tech bubble 2000. Look back at who were saying "buy" grossly overvalued situations then. All of course to "help" you! Or was it for your pension plan? And didn't they say do not buy gold at under $300 because it was over, but of course buy when it was over $1750 because it was going way higher!! Yes the history of Wall Street "caring" or even knowing, about anybodies interests other than themselves, the 1% who do very well with them, while fleecing the vast majority of Americans and other World citizens is sterling, isn't it???? Wall Street: greed at its best or worst, depending on your viewpoint. They should hire Bernie Madoff as their spokesperson! Forgot, didn't they help him reel in many folks as well? roflmao If it were not soooo pathetic it would make a great comedy show. Sort of like the old Gong Show, where you the public are dragged off leaving your money with them! And now: more of the same: maybe even the biggest fleece of all going on right here? We shall see how this really unfolds. I think not so good for late arrivals!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Tesla back on top in Norway in March

    by justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 19, 2014 6:48 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 6:22 PM Flag

    Said it before. This is a fill the early novel buyers demand, and then it tapers off. This is not a mass selling car, or even a big seller. It is a niche product. Costs about $1 per mile, which is more expensive than the .35 to .75 price range for other vehicles available currently. To sell big volume in the U.S. consistently, you need low total cost to operate per mile, reliability, useful for families and their short and long vacations, along with easily available service. If the range is too short, or the recharge a hassle, it will also face resistance.imo Many issues, lots of competition looming, and time frames here are long and arduous to achieve targets set out and currently fully reflected in current share price. That current value is the most fundamental issue here, because even if they do well over next years, it is more than reflected in the current price. So why would it go much higher. Or, put another way, why buy, there are so many better risk/reward situations which are not reflecting all their future potential and then some already.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    Also: Fuel Cells are far from dead and have been getting better and better. This is the REAL ECO friendly car of the future, as you do not produce pollution from batteries, or the output. All you get out is WATER!!!! Now that is a real game changer. NO generation of electricity even needed! No pollution. That is the ultimate. First on markets: June of THIS YEAR!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    Where is the range? You are talking years before we see volume, cost to operate comparable to existing cars. The cost to operate a Tesla is estimated to be around $1 per mile, as can be searched on google from many analysis guys, as compared to a range for existing cars of about .35 to .75. Economy to luxury. Volkswagen just demonstrated new battery technology with 4 TIMES the capabilities of any existing Lithium Batteries. Ignore it, but these are FACTS. You think they can't bring this to market???? You are the dreamer.imo

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    You seem to act as though everyone else is different to Tesla. Volkswagen has not built a factory, but they have many AND established dealers throughout the WHOLE WORLD. Tesla does NOT have a factory, only a plan. Tesla does NOT have new technology, but yes could develop something over the next years. The point here is VERY SIMPLE: there seems to be a dual standard with Tesla hype heads. Tesla can put out anything, pie in the sky regarding what they might do in the future, but when anybody else does, that is somehow different, get it??? Volkswagen has FAR MORE capability to ramp up something new, sooner, at this time than Tesla. That is a FACT, because they are bigger, more established, with FAR MORE EXPERIENCE in every aspect of the auto business. I like the Tesla car, yes I do, believe it or not. But that is far different than having my head stuck up my #$%$ when it comes to risk vs reward, future actual delivery with huge risks of failure, issues, competition (from MANY sources) and over valuation now, before anything big gets done or delivered. Why would I buy a stock priced already as though everything they say has already happened, when it is years or even a decade away???? I would not. Its that simple.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow by beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    "We haven't had a test of the 50-week moving average since 2012," says Ross. "We haven't seen the 100-week since 2011. A 15% pullback within the historic context is typically normal."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    True. When all the pumping is done, with the only effect being paper inflation, and all the debts owed suddenly start to cost far more to service, reality will strike big time. Most are so stupid it appears, that bad news becomes good news. That has gone on for years. Its about to change. Reality check is here. Looking forward, big money will dump, as they are looking out and see whats coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    Has he talked to the guy in Norway? He seems to have issues as well. Does he have a "Dealer" he can turn to for any recalls? LOL Just wait till they have big numbers of cars out there and they have an issue! How many people that own this stock even think about real issues? Not many it appears, or they would be selling.imo

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    That should have been: it could double by 2022! I am soooo excited. Should I buy and wait 8 YEARS? Or should I just try and make 15% per year and more than double that return? And what if they fail to meet their targets? Not good! LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    Even Cramer thinks this call is "hilarious". Only a complete moron would not realize that when you tell people you are basing your target prices on what "could" take place 6 to 9 YEARS AWAY, and the stock is already priced as though this has all taken place, it is a ridiculous investment now. It means this. If everything goes right, 100%+ this stock MIGHT possibly double by 2002! Oh gee, I can't wait! roflmao

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    volkswagen ready to fight.

    by mezzaghese Mar 19, 2014 9:51 PM
    beststockstoownnow beststockstoownnow Mar 20, 2014 5:08 AM Flag

    Of course. The funny thing is, some here question how this is in the future, while they buy a stock where the whole price is based on some projected future. Volkswagen technology appears superior and that by multiples. Here no plant for years based on inferior technology?? Volkswagen may end up crushing Tesla .

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Because, as stated often by many, the stock price NOW reflects projections of sales years away. If Volkswagen for example has a new battery technology four times better coming, as indicated, this runs into Tesla projections directly. tesla is not Apple or Google with billions in revenue and cash on hand. Its value is ALL about sales years from now. If anything disrupts this, the stock plunges. We will see many, many innovations coming on because others have not been idle for the last decade. Couple this with planning to build abattery factory and it gets even more risky. Will they end up with an outdated technologyfor example?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It is beyond funny how hard they are trying to justify and hold up this overbloated stock price. They come up with projections going out to 2022. Folks, seriously, that is 8 YEARS AWAY. And those price targets are couched in all kinds of cute wording to deceive people.IMO What they are saying simply is this: IF Tesla performs to perfection, AND sells all the cars they can possibly do over the next 8 years, then the price might actually double! If you invest your money at 8% folks it will double in 8 years! This is almost criminal, IMO, and is the height of B + S from vested interests or just plain deceptive stuff. Put another way: do you want to wait 8 years to see if a stock might double over that time, while cutely their closer in valuations are ALL lower than the current price. Talk about leading the dumb, this has to be some sort of new low. Get fooled once, or is this more than that for most of you??? LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This is exactly what I think happens here for the next few YEARS. Over at Solar City, his other stock : "But the stock is down more than 1% this morning after the firm guided to lower and warned on narrower margins.

    Citing that, as well as increased operating expenses, Goldman's clean tech team is ratcheting down its 12-month price target .." It is now down 6%. But the important point is the guidance. You pump these stocks up with rosy, almost impossible promises and then when they start to deteriorate, after raising money at high price of course, you start to bring down the expectation, until you need more funds, and then you start the routine all over again. So many here, just do not get it. This is a great concept and probably achieves some success, maybe even becomes great, but it IS YEARS AWAY, and markets and momentum players are not going to wait years. So valuation will assert over time and bring this down big time.IMO Of course after all the pumping and media hype. Sell: risk ridiculous compared to reward.IMO

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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