American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board
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Wait until the announcement of the losses from the Sandy Hurricane, alot larger than market anticipated.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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Yo YO ma ma to you
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Obama claims he saved the car industry, why didn't he save our twinkees. China will end up with all are historic pastries.
As comic relief in the classic Bruce Willis movie "Die Hard," a beleaguered Bruce, fighting off terrorists in a high-rise building, finds an ancient but still edible Twinkie. He reaches out by radio to Twinkie-addicted police Sgt. Al Powell (portrayed by Reginald Vel Johnson) and asks what's in a Twinkie.
"Sugar, enriched flour, partially hydrogenated vegetable oil, polysorbate 60 and yellow dye No. 5," Al replies. "Everything a growing boy needs."
Well, yes. But as America has learned since Hostess Brands — bakers of Twinkies, Ho-Hos, Drake's Cakes, Ding-Dongs, Wonder Bread and dozens of other delicious delights — filed for bankruptcy protection on Wednesday, the entire American economy is inside a Twinkie, slathered in a mysterious cream-like filling.Sentiment: Strong Sell
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Capital losses might be disallowed after 1/1/13, you better take the loss and carryover or sell some gainers and harvest the lost. The easiest and laziest thing to do is HOLD.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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No presents, no celebration like Christmas past. These are somber times. We will meet with the family on Thanksgiving, but instead of planning Black Friday outing, we will save the cash. We have decided no gift giving, just reflecting on past Christmas's. We did this one time before, I think it was Xmas of 2011.
I plan to bring this quote of Mitt Romney to Thanksgiving to share with my family members:
“If you do not want America to be the strongest nation on Earth, I am not your president. You have that president today.”Sentiment: Strong Sell
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Despite the 6 % rally the last 3 months before the election, news stories abounded about Buffet, Soros and other billionaire quietly dumping stocks. Buffet has sold his positions in J&J, Procter & Gamble, Kraft, GE, and others. Consumer dependent companies which signaled to me he is planning for a slowdown in the economy. John Paulson, is also selling, dumping 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase, Family Dollar and Sara Lee. George Soros sold all of his bank stocks in the USA, Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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RIGHT, Bernanke seemed desperate, like the Italian Captain on that shipped that capsized in the mediterranean last year.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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Twinkies may liquidate if workers don't cut pay& bene's by 35- 40% by 5 PM today. Wholly cow, the ramifications of another 4 years or Obama.
By JEANETTE TORRES
Nov. 15, 2012
The end for Twinkies may just be hours away. Hostess Brands Inc., the maker of the iconic snack, announced on Wednesday that it will liquidate the entire company if not enough striking employees return to work by Thursday evening.
"We simply do not have the financial resources to survive an ongoing national strike," Hostess CEO Gregory Rayburn said in a statement Wednesday. "Therefore, if sufficient employees do not return to work by 5 p.m., EST, on Thursday to restore normal operations, we will be forced to immediately move to liquidate the entire company, which will result in the loss of nearly 18,000 jobs."
The strikes began on Nov. 9, when the company imposed a contract that would cut workers' wages by 8 percent. The Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union (BCTGM) said the contract would also cut benefits by 27 to 32 percent.
I would like to discuss how the other folks on this messageboard feel, staring into the abyss of the fiscal cliff.Sentiment: Strong Sell
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This has more to go on the downside. I think we will retest 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009 lows and see if they hold. I don't think they will, because stock price is based on value of future revenue streams and these don't look good at all.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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Not yet, wait until March - June, 2013, you will save another 30-40%.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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It is simple math, as Bernanke's Quantitative easing to infinity continues, you will see the contraction in spreads quarterly till infinity, when will it end, when the gov. says enough is enough. The FED's have their own self interest, they don't like REIT's because they let all the income flow to investors and it is taxed only once at the personal level, they know this is a loophole. If they make those 16-20% yields go down, you will shift to utilities or regular corporations where profits are taxed twice and more.
Self interest at work and they don't want it growing. Whats worse, is so many people hold these high yield REIT's in their Roth IRA's and money is accumulating untaxed at an exponential rate. Yes, the evidence is clear, M-REIT's are Kryptonite to the Federal Governments tax receipts. I saw this coming months and years ago. I remember the M-REIT's in Miami, Fla, from the early 1970's almost all tank to single digits from the 20-30's when the FED's compressed the yield spread to get the economy moving. 1972 I was in Atico Mortgage Investors and Associated Mortage Investors, both yielding 10-11%, it was a horrific ending by 1976, these guys were vapor.Sentiment: Strong Sell
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I tried to warn you that $36 was really high priced. I bought in after the IPO around half that. It looks like we will test that and see if it holds.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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Ha, Ha, ha.....One thing our economy needs is economic comedians, there is a shortage.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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Things were bad in the last recession of the milleneum, 1999 - 2001, but this one is going to make that look like a picnic. VERY GOOD SHORT SALE ON RALLIES. 26-29 shorted. I believe this sell-off has legs to $14.00 a key support area and then $11.00.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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Take your losses before 12/31/2012. Reason, limitations on deductions is up for negotiation and one real big area that his draining revenue is CAPITAL LOSSES, they are everywhere, especially business. I expect Obama to proposed limitations on Capital Losses, meaning if you loose, Uncle Sam won't be your partner. You loose, YOU LOOSE BIG and you have no friends in your misery.
Conservatism is coming back, after so much irrational exuberance in limiting personal responsibility.Sentiment: Strong Sell
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While people have flocked to REIT'S for yield due to uncertainty, it may have been a bad move. Protect your principle, taxes are going to 43-44%, meaning the largest holders of stock's, mutual funds will get hit with the higher taxes, hence they will sell. Another factor, earnings are expected to decline over the next year as quantitative easing continues to squeeze the yield spread. The 164% tax hike increase will likely result in very significant share price declines to return yields to their after-tax equilibrium levels. TARGET PRICE $18, DIV. $2 - $2.50.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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While people have flocked to Bank Stocks for yield due to the illusion of recovery in home prices or stabilization, it may have been a bad move. Protect your principle, taxes are going up to 43 - 44% for many successful people, meaning the largest holders of bank stocks, mutual funds will get hit with the higher taxes, hence they will sell. Another factor, earnings are expected to decline over the next half decade. The 164% tax hike increase will likely result in very significant share price declines to return yields to their after-tax equilibrium levels. Instead of 2.4% current yield, you have to get 3.6% yield to offset the additional taxes at the personal level. Mind you this is in 2013, every year after that rates have to rise to pay for the ballooning federal deficit that baby boomers taking retirement at 8-10 million a year will inundate the fiscal capacity of irrational funding flow estimates. On top of this higher dividend tax, the corporations paying dividends will be asked to pay additional corporate income taxes and Obama health care taxes. Not a pretty picture, Corporations will cut staffing to make up for all the additional taxes.
Anyone holding stocks is going to experience pain. I would like to discuss alternate views, but based on realistic expectations and estimates, I am very discouraged. Can anyone offer me some encouraging signs, facts or humor on the situation we are in.Sentiment: Strong Sell
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While people have flocked to UTE's for yield due to uncertainty, it mayhave been a bad move. Protect you principle, taxes are going to 43-44%, meaning the largest holders of UTE's, mutual funds will get hit with the higher taxes, hence they will sell. Another factor, earnings are expected to decline over the next half decade. The 164% tax hike increase will likely result in very significant share price declines to return yields to their after-tax equilibrium levels.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
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I know, everyone talks how scary going off the fiscal cliff, how we have to avoid it at all cost. But we have been to alot of fiscal cliffs the past 10 years, and yes we did avoid it by borrowing more and living in illusion and kick the can down the road. The election was sobering. Conversvatives lost, but actually gained alot of voters since McCain ran and they won 2/3rds of the states very handsomely something McCain didn't do. Gridlock was a big plus for Republicans, just needed a smidgeon more. So why throw away a fiscally conservative platform, something a runaway spending Federal government needs to become solvent again. I agree with the democrats this is no Greece, this is worse.
What this country needs is a SWAN DIVE OFF THE FISCAL CLIFF. Both parties need to be sobered not with more debt, bailouts, golden parachutes, etc., we need to kick butt hard and we need to land hard, we need to get our moral compass back, reduce our deficit, encourage businesses to expand in this country, we need to rebuild the middle class who have suffered for 2 decades of declining wealth, optimism and hope, we need to sober the conservatives and liberals into the right course of action. Conservatives believe in personal responsibility, limited government and balanced budgets and you don't spend what you can't pay back or afford and people should take an active role into changing their behavior without government intervention. Liberals believe that government should assume an active role in helping citizens in society and government should take the responsibility to affect change whether they are successful or not.
A "Swan Dive off the Fiscal Cliff" would create a PLUNGE, the unthinkable, that everyone was trying to avert. This plunge would follow six weeks of negotiations and posturing and pressure from outside interest groups both political, business and religious. And it will surely shake the electorate, Conservative and Liberal.
The Democrats and Republicans can spend 24/7 to negotiate, widesweeping changes instead of the bandaid approaches of past negotiations. They should spend 6-12 mos, as the country spirals down through austerity, making the necessary corrections that decades of irresponsibility made worse.
It is hard to see the path to a quick deal before New Years deadline because the players remain the same and both believe they have a mandate. But the positions of both sides has not shifted at all since the failed super committee and the epic battle in 2011 over the debt ceiling.
There is a bright spot if we do play this "Game of Chicken". If both sides decide to really hash it out and spend 6 months or longer and we do a Swan Dive off the Cliff, I believe both sides will win. Wealth will be destroyed on the Republican side, but will flow to the middle classs, who I hope will be short the market come New Years Eve. Stocks will become cheaper, by up to 90% off November prices. Apple Computer will be down to $100. PNC down to $16. BAC and C down to $1.00. What a way to transfer wealth from the Buffet types who own so much stock that they could never sell it all and would have to watch all that wealth flow back to the middle class. Justice is coming and those with a vision, and the resources will be able to better themselves without no help from the Government.
Look for DOW target of 6,000 in 2013 and by 2014 - 2015 another sell-off to 2,500 - 4,000. Remember, there is alot of debt, alot of unfunded pension, alot of debt deleveraging that will happen automatically as 90 million baby boomer age daily.Sentiment: Strong Sell
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I forgot another negative. Municipalities in EXC's areas are cutting power. Changing bulbs in street lamps that use 60% less electric. Turning lights off early. Cutting heating and cooling costs. They have had 4 years straight of declining tax revenues and higher pension and operating costs. The trend is no different in corporate america. Electric usage will drop yearly with no end in sight, till infinitely like Bernanke's take on how long it will take to turn things around. The trend is there, the future is negative exponential growth, the debt holders will end up calling the shots on the future, the stockholders are toast.
Sentiment: Strong Sell