Take a look at recent trading history of the Class I railroads. Nice beta in KSU and UNP in July. +$8 rip for UNP in the past week and $10 total for KSU this month in two $5 increments.
Wouldn't it be more like APA has no chance? Getting out today and buying back after earnings might be a good play, if one is determined to own APA.
What's this about Congress easing up on exporting oil products? Refiners already have free reign. If you meant oil exports, then there's another reason shares of Gulf Coast refiners like VLO and MPC could be under pressure.
What makes you think the price of crude will go up as refiners scale back from 95% run rates when summer driving season demand wanes? What I heard on the conference call was just the opposite. Also saw a MarketWatch headline saying, "Buying oil stocks at these prices is just spilling money."
Saw yet another article predicting natural gas price will separate from oil and head up with LNG exports commencing. One element of domestic refiner cost advantage may be dissipating.
Well, if you sold two months ago, you missed the big rally. We must take your perspective with a grain of salt, because you would be wanting a re-entry price at or below your exit.
Saw another article that said Obama is going to nix the Keystone XL in August. Wall Street traders may be pouncing on that prospect, though it is relatively meaningless to the Gulf Coast refiners in the current crude price environment.
Okay, I have a theory. Saw a Bloomberg report that said after the pipeline infrastructure build-out, Permian basin is humming and garnering a premium to WTI on shipments to the Gulf Coast. Permian crude had been selling at an $8-$10 discount. Could be Mr. Market looking forward sees a contraction in margins as a result, if Gulf Coast refiners were hooked on cheap Permian crude.
You mean 80 dollars, but Cramer can predict only what has happened in the past. XOM and XCO are totally different propositions. XOM is low risk/low reward, and XCO is high risk/no reward.
Given Bluescape's ultimate position, a go-private merger already occurred but has not been announced as such. I will accept $3.50 for each of my 20k shares.
What happens if the Fed dies not raise interest rates and a US recession ensues? Not only would the Fed not have a conventional monetary stimulus tool at is disposal, but they would continue to suppress the velocity of money by sending a signal to consumers, already afraid to spend and hording cash, that the economy remains too weak to act. Presently, the Fed can rely on low energy prices as an economic stimulus in lieu of zero interest rates.
What would be stupid about raising artificially low (read: zero) interest rates after such a prolonged period? Sooner or later, the economy needs to stand on its own and savers need to stop paying for others' sins. I would even suggest the decimation of commodity prices also is artificial, a ploy by global financiers to discourage the Fed from acting.
What I want to know is why crude prices are down day after day, and the explanation always is the same - supply glut. Actual and anticipated supply outlook don't change from day to day. Why don't the analyst/pundits just come clean and acknowledge traders are shorting the heck out of the market every day?
The low stock price could be anticipating bankruptcy, as you suggest, or could be anticipating massive dilution, as aviacionado suggested. Could also be every small cap shale player has been shorted indiscriminately.