We have a lot of adamant shorts who do not know when to fold and take profits. But the prospects are improving by the week (see my 6 catalysts post) . Value and price will intersect in the future. We don't know exactly when but it happens everytime on Wall St. It was flying high into dark clouds at $30 and now it is touching the Mariana trench. Fundamentals support a $10 stock price. Whether that happens in 2Q,3Q,4Q15 is the question. I can wait...
I didn't go anywhere to be back in. Didn't add anymore shares either since my last purchase. It will re-test it's 52 week high on the announcement of product availability - I don't doubt that. I plan to sell 80% of my shares that day and keep the rest for fun....
OK, just as I thought. A leopard can't change his spots. Anyway for the benefit of the others, just google "rbc upgrades vivus with price targets". Go to the link under gainerstoday and it is there for everyone to see. You need to learn to use Google - it has been around for a decade and is a very successful company, if you have not heard. There is more to the internet than just trolling a message board. Try using a search engine and learn something new today...
Hey vinny, that is too much DD in one post for the trolls to handle. Try splitting it up into different threads, so that they MAY see how silly their assertions for a secondary or bankruptcy are. Perhaps I am giving them too much credit to understand facts. BTW, great stuff. This is the kind of material we need to discuss here instead of jabbing with the shorts. Remember, we need them when the time is right.
1. North Tide buying 2.5MM shares
2. Blackrock upping their stake to 10MM shares
3. RBC upgrading with target of $6
4. Qsymia showing better growth in scripts than Belvique
5. $400MM in milestone payments for STENDRA, excluding L America
6. European approval of 15 min onset for SPEDRA
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I can't imagine a management that will deliberately withhold good news so that they can get some cheap options first. They don't seem that street savvy. Besides, it is unethical and they may be incompetent but not frauds. They probably figured this is a great time to take advantage of the market conditions and maximize their profits when things get a lot better.
True, however it is only 800K less than the prior 2 weeks. Approx. 24MM shares traded in those 2 weeks and so only 3% covered. Not complaining as we need as many of them as possible (shorts) when the good news breaks.
Don't hold back. Tell me how you really feel..
BTW, I don't really know if you are a long or short or have no position. Speaking of meaningless diatribe, you keep changing your position by the day, a.k.a day trading. Anyway, I don't want to get into an argument with you - don't know about you but it is a waste of my time. I am accumulating here as I mentioned from the beginning. I just like to inform others on the board in real time, when I do something that is "meaningful" in terms of having a position. If you want something useful, go look at some DD I posted when you questioned the lack of news from this company - when you got out after praising it the day before! Else ignore. That's what I am going to do with you....
I greatly respect posters who are not afraid to post their losses on a public board but still maintain equanimity and civility with those who trash their investment or even themselves. Money comes and goes. Morality comes and grows. The factors that I think will make you whole in a year are:
1) Huge, overt institutional buying at these levels.
2) Steadily growing scripts for Q.
3) Huge potential with Stendra with proper advertising, which is starting this year.
4) Almost $300MM in cash.
5) $400MM in potential milestone payments for Stendra, even excluding Latin America.
6) Analysts starting to upgrade.
7) Huge short position waiting to be squeezed.
8) Greatly reduced OPEX, cash burn.
9) Almost all time lows with over $100MM in revenues.
10) Very undervalued compared to OREX and ARNA.
11) Potential buyout candidate
12) Potential for major partnership
pmt, Thanks for that. But I really don't think much about the jabs on the internet. I have been on these boards long enough for people to know that I am honest if they want to go back in time and check. I have lost big and I have won big before. On paper, I am down big here after getting to even the week before. Hopefully, it changes in the future. Everything that's going on with this company over the past 3-4 months tells me that this will be a winner in the mid to long term. If I have to wait a year (or even 2) for $10, that is still fine as we are talking close to a million bucks on the line. I just think of it as I bought an undeveloped lakefront lot and will develop it over the next year and sell for a big profit. I am not going to lose conviction over some posts on a message board. Cheers!
Excellent news Dave. This is exactly what I want to see with Q and Stendra in 2015. Steady share appreciation through organic growth and stellar ERs is any day preferred to one-time spikes caused by partnerships and M&A - though I don't mind the latter at this particular juncture of time! The only way to see $30 again in 2017 is to do it the hard way and that is to reach the potential that both drugs were destined to realize upon FDA approval.
Thanks for the heads up geo.I will buy more on any pullback. I was sitting idle after my initial purchase of 70K shares last week. I'd like to hold 150K shares at least before the BLA filing in March.
The free float is about 3-4MM from my estimates. So, anything below 4MM shares is not out of the ordinary and with such a large short interest, a fall is not surprising in the absence of great news. We can rule out the following:
1) No secondary. They have $300MM and there are no big commitments till CVOT trial starts (even that is $50-70MM per year) or some debt due in 2017. They will probably do one after good news and the price is closer to $10.
2) No bankruptcy. When you have a negative enterprise value, that simply cannot happen.
3) No negative FDA ruling. Not waiting for anything from them.
I have noticed in the past that stocks with high short interest are manipulated down just before some very positive news is announced. The MMs keep the shorts confident and then stick it to them to maximize their profits. Not saying that is the case here but when there is inexplicable movements like now (down with increasing institutional buying), it is more likely...
Guys, you seem to suggest that institutions behave like retailers. They don't buy and sell based on emotions. Definitely not based on daily stock prices. Sure, if there was a negative fundamental shift after their purchase, they will admit their mistake and sell. However, there has been nothing but positive or neutral news over the past 3 months. Perhaps this is a 'triple bottom' as traders call it? Who knows? All I know is that the tutes know a lot more than us when purchasing millions of shares this month and last and they do think more than a day or week or month in advance. Like I mentioned before, the price on any given day is immaterial IF you believe in the big boys. If they are buying, which is the case here, you also buy or keep holding.
Looks like VVUS is getting smacked as much as ARNA but without the benefit of a +$1B valuation. pmt, time to sympathize with the VVUS longs too - LOL! Good news is the shorts are not budging and calling bluff on the big boys. We need as much nitrous as possible for the launch. Let's see who has the last laugh in a couple of months....
That's some great detective work Mike! Hope the dots get connected like you theorize. Makes a lot of sense for sure...