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Velti plc Message Board

betasplen1 235 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 24, 2015 9:33 AM Member since: Mar 2, 2004
  • Reply to

    Interesting read

    by betasplen1 Apr 16, 2015 2:10 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 16, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    2 words. Bidding war! The original pmt has got to hear this.He might cut short his expedition in the South Pole. After all, he was the grandfather of the "VVUS will be bought out" theory.

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Apr 16, 2015 2:10 PM Flag

    Google the following: "Vivus: Teva Wants To Make Generic Qsymia - Can This Be Good?"
    SA Article was written on Mar 11, 2015. See the point where neither wanted to partner but now want to make generics of Q? I need to share my genius title with this author :(...

    Here's an excerpt:
    So where are we now? We have two companies competing to have the right to make generic Qsymia. Vivus received a 30-month stay when it sued Actavis, and will get a similar stay when it files a suit against Teva. That being said, how expensive is it to fight on two fronts? Perhaps an opportunity has now presented itself where Vivus could turn one of these players into a suitor. In fact, it may be that Actavis and Teva went after generic Qsymia simply to get Vivus to the table. These companies could be interested in Qsymia at a very high level, or perhaps the interest is in the erectile dysfunction drug. Either way, the silver lining is having more than one party interested in the drug. Why neither stepped up to the plate to simply partner the drug would make for interesting conversation.

    So what is the investment strategy here? That is an interesting discussion as well. Vivus has over $300 million in cash but carries a market cap of less than its cash. Essentially, Vivus is cheap right now. The main reason it is cheap is that sales of both of its drugs are not setting any records. If a big pharma player like Teva or Actavis were to step up to buy Vivus, investors would see some form of premium. Vivus may be worth a look for this reason alone......

  • Reply to

    The usual suspects are not shorts

    by betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 5:00 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 16, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Chris, so you are saying that buttocks boy is lying? Can't be....

  • Reply to

    The usual suspects are not shorts

    by betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 5:00 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 16, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    And "they" are making money hand over fist for the past 2 years but that's not the point Rup. From your logic, the institutions holding 70+MM shares of VVUS rarely make money. I don't have to tell you all the big names holding long - it is plain for everyone to see. Not so for the short side - they are shrouded in mystery. I conclude from this exercise that there are no shorts on this message board. Just trolls. Doesn't affect me but the passionate longs like Bubble and Miami may be interested in this revelation. BTW Rup, you are a classic, grotesque troll. Sorry, calling a spade a spade... See Wiki definition below:
    In Internet slang, a troll (/ˈtroʊl/, /ˈtrɒl/) is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[2] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion

  • Reply to

    The usual suspects are not shorts

    by betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 5:00 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 16, 2015 9:32 AM Flag

    Seriously, who are the shorts on this message board (who have an active short position) that are part of the 35MM share army? Please reveal yourself. Also, what is your cost basis? I am long at $3.25. Thanks for your co-operation...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 8:01 PM Flag

    Obviously the patents are valid and have not expired. So, TEVA has 2 choices. Make a bid for Qsymia (or VVUS) or wait another 2.5 years. I see them offering up to $300MM for Q (TEVA has over $2B in cash) and VVUS accepting the offer, paying off its debt, immediately going FCF positive with Stendra and announcing a huge share buyback and the stock shoots up to $15 on a monster short squeeze. And then I wake up from my wet dream...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 7:35 PM Flag

    That equates to 150% annualized gains if you bought at yesterday's close and sold at today's close. Do not scoff my Michael Crichton wanna be...

  • Shenzi is just a hater from ARNA.
    Rup has no position and is here to improve his writing skills.
    The #$%$ boy cannot be taken seriously or he needs some serious lubricants in the future.

    So, who is actually in this "special" category?

  • Reply to


    by r1t2003 Apr 15, 2015 2:16 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    Thanks for that r1t. I now remember seeing that before but forgot. OK, so the agreement it is not as dire as I thought from your last post to me and Shenzi's reprisal of a flat 7% royalties. Then S revenues can perhaps continue at a 60% clip QoQ for 2015 and exceed $100MM...

  • Reply to


    by r1t2003 Apr 15, 2015 2:16 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 4:09 PM Flag

    You know shorting is on margin, don't you? You mean to say you are not short VVUS? If so, congrats on that wise decision. Else, good luck in the future...

  • Reply to


    by r1t2003 Apr 15, 2015 2:16 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    It will be painful alright...for Shenzi probably, as he sees his profits disappear and have his brokerage call in his shares...

  • Reply to


    by r1t2003 Apr 15, 2015 2:16 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    tigger, if S is growing at 60% for 2 consecutive quarters ($8M in 4Q14 and $13M in 1Q15), even with the albatross around its neck (ENDO deal). Even if we use half that number for the rest of the year to be conservative, let's project this out:

    1Q15: $13M
    2Q15: $17M
    3Q15: $22M
    4Q15: $29M
    Total: $81M (7% of total sales)
    So, total S sales in 2015 will be $1.15B. Never is a strong word. But then again so is a Bengal tiger approaching extinction..

  • Reply to

    Moron of the millenium award

    by betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 3:15 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    Oh feck the finer points and just vote will ya?

  • Reply to


    by r1t2003 Apr 15, 2015 2:16 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    shenzi, I hate to agree with you and it kills me to reluctantly agree that Seth is a moron of the highest order. Hopefully, 7% of $3B or $210MM annually from S worldwide and another $90MM from Q will put this at $300MM and a $3B market cap or $30 in 2017. But the head moron needs to listen to my "get well soon" plan first...

  • 1) Hitler after he decided to invade Russia
    2) Emperor Hirohito after he decided to bomb Pearl Harbor
    3) Osama Bin Ladin for taking full credit for 911
    4) VVUS BOD for keeping Seth after a 95% fall in SP and no respite

    Bear in mind that 3 of the above candidates faced humiliation and death for their faux pas. I know it sounds a little harsh. But I wanted to give all candidates a fair shake...

  • Reply to


    by r1t2003 Apr 15, 2015 2:16 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    "Too bad Seth doesn't think this info is news worthy."
    You can actually curtail the sentence to "Too bad Seth doesn't think" and I will give you a thumbs up for veracity...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    Proof positive that nobody significant reads this message board. Here is a pragmatic explanation of why VVUS will man-handle the estimates in a couple of weeks and what does the stock do? Flounder as always. This also helps to model stock behavior if they indeed bring in over $40M in revenues for 1Q. Without a buyback announcement to accompany the revenue beat, this will probably just sit around cash levels as shorts will not be convinced that management has a plan to trump them yet. If the shorts can also keep the SP from going up on a positive ER, then their hope is that longs will wave their white flags and start bailing. Conclusion: the share price is probably not going to go up significantly just with improved fundamentals. A nuke is needed along with it like a share buyback or a company/product sale to drive out the shorts...

  • Reply to

    Another email to management from yours truly

    by betasplen1 Apr 14, 2015 11:22 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Chris, simple..don't try to convince me :). I have thought this through clearly in my mind. I thought we were done with this argument.
    1) Share buyback has not been tried before by Vivus and so you cannot compare to any past events.
    2) Share buyback was not practical before since the shares were trading at much above cash levels and the revenues for Avanafil was uncertain, Q was stalling and nobody knew when CVOT trials will be ordered to be started. Fast forward - CVOT has been delayed for at least 9 months (maybe downsized), shares are trading 20% below cash, Avanafil is growing at 60% QoQ, S is hitting all time high scripts, expenses have been slashed and cash is sitting above $300MM for the past 6 months. This is the best 1-2 punch to screw the shorts.
    3) Management has done nothing to help shareholders thus far and hence the shorts have been emboldened. This would put an end to that vicious cycle.

    If you are worried the stock will spike to $9 in the short term and you may actually get to exit with a small profit vs sitting on a large 6 figure loss, I can't help your masochistic tendencies :). Let's agree to disagree and move on. At least I am actively trying to do something about the share price vs just complaining about it on a message board...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    Also lessons learned from Endo and Sanofi w.r.t Avanafil. Partnership is not that useful as advertised...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Apr 15, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    Nope I am the one and only (until you create a fake one). I see some personal attacks now. Getting a little edgy eh? But I agree with you - it is too early to worry for you. Sit on your short for another year please. I would love to compare notes in 2016...

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