jason, a large part of my calculation is based on data from 6/30. So, we could easily go plus minus 2MM shares from that 7.8MM number. But you do bring up a good point. I can already count over 1MM shares between viperstench, eliminator, biocharm, pmt, david and myself.
Guys - It took me a good 15 minutes to find the data and come up with the theory. No comments (other than bubble)?
Done. 525 contracts of Mar 2015 $2.5 calls bought. I plan to convert more as I assess the risk to reward over the next few weeks...
Mar 2016 I meant :). For those who wonder how this helps - here is the math.
If VVUS is $6.60 by Mar 2016:
Holding commons: 200% gain
Holding same amount in options: 1000% gain
If VVUS is $8.80 by Mar 2016:
commons: 300% gain
options: 1600% gain
If VVUS is $11 by Mar 2016:
Commons: 400% gain
Options: 2100% gain
Basically you are getting 5 x leverage. Assuming (rather knowing) that Carl will make it happen, it is a safe bet.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Let me more specific. I am selling 10K of my 167K shares (at 2.20) and buying Mar 2015 calls @ 2.5 strike price for 40 cents each...
while they are still cheap...
Janet, today is a new day for VVUS. See my earlier posts today for a gist of what happened and what is going to happen. You don't see much news under VVUS because 1) their PR dept is brain dead and 2) VVUS had no say in this transaction. Your pain will soon be erased. All the best...
Remember folks. Free float is ZERO if CI and Denner bought the remaining float before going public with the plan. Shorts can't cover anything significant till the institutions decide to sell. That ain't happening anytime soon...
Net cash is $220MM or $2.10/share. We are trading at negative enterprise value right now. Carl Icahn and Alex Denner will run the show going forward. Bye bye Seth. Bye bye Rup. And Bye bye butthead...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I provided some incorrect calculations based on old and inaccurate data. Like they say, junk in junk out. The insider holdings according to Yahoo Finance is total junk. It includes some of NTC holdings and all of Denner's which is double counted under institutional holdings. So here are the numbers I came up with BEFORE Carl Icahn entered the picture:
Institutional holding from 6/30/15: 75,232,370 shares (from VVUS website)
Blackrock: 579,601 shares (Added 7/10/15)
Van Herk: 279,200 shares (Added 8/24/15)
Insider holding (Samuel,Seth,Svai,John,Santosh,Wesley,Guy): 3,252,241 shares
Total held: 79,343,412 shares (pre-IC bid)
Float: 87,090,000 shares
Free float: 7,746,588 shares (7.44% of OS)
Now here is an interesting theory. Denner has 2.5% thru Sarissa. So after Icahn talked to him about taking over the show, Denner could have bought 2.49% (2.6MM shares) in the low $1s to not trigger a 13F submission, effectively dropping his cost basis to the mid 4s . Icahn's fund could have bought the remaining 4.99%(5.2MM shares) during that 36MM volume day and also not triggered a 13F submission. This would entirely remove the float so that the shorts will have nowhere to hide once the squeeze action starts. And the bondholders will have to agree to his terms or get squeezed out of their shares at much higher prices than $14.86. And Icahn will own 22MM shares (at $8 effective cost basis) after the conversion or the 20% he desires. Game set match!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
joseph, I never got a real good handle of whether you are a long or short. For the record, which is it? Back to your question on how the transfer of ownership from the current bondholders to CI will help VVUS - the most obvious one is - it is Carl Icahn dude! Do you know who he is and what he does? Anyway, if that isn't enough the next biggest factor is that VVUS debt will drop from $230MM to $50MM overnight. Carl is not playing this for 4.5% interest. That kind of gain is like a capital loss in his book. He is playing this to convert 17MM shares at $10 (since there is no float to get any here) and flip it at $30 for $340MM at least. But wait - he will also buy any shares that are freed up in the float as the stock goes above $10 and some institutions sell to breakeven. So he will probably make more than half billion - which is worthy of his 'troubles'. He will use his influence and his buddy's (Denner) to unlock that $270MM in cash that VVUS has with share buybacks, strategic M&As and maybe more advertising/lobbying where effective. I would say lot more but this post will get buried somewhere tomorrow that I don't want to waste any more energy...
You know what's not so funny? You deprived a village an idiot. Go back - they are missing you...
There are plenty of new basholes today. What are you talking about? Every time the stock dips a nickle, they are out in full force. You need to be on Rup's case. He is posting less and less as the stock rises. What's the deal with that? Get on the phone with his boss and negotiate a pay hike for each post. He is not getting paid enough to inhale his daily dose of mothballs.
The village that produces these characters is having a baby boom and making a mockery of the theory of evolution...
If he could, he would - instead of paying $10 for a $1.80 stock. But there is absolutely no float to buy large. Mike's friends probably found that out as well. The shorts are in a precarious position. Nobody actually sold shares for shorts to cover, even with 36MM shares traded! Where are those shares coming and going - who knows? But if the tutes and insiders simply hold their shares, the shorts just can't cover no matter how high the price goes. Not sure what the MMs are waiting for before letting the hound loose.
Jason, you need to get paid for PR work as the one hired by VVUS has no pulse. Or Sloth Seth does not bother giving them material to release. Perhaps more the latter....
dave and chris, look at how institutional ownership is calculated on the Nasdaq website, even if the numbers do not include Van Herk and few others. It says 66.87% and that is calculated as 69,571,016 / 104,000,000. So, it is a % of OS, not float. Float is simply shares available for trading, is constant as long as OS does not change and is not only dependent on insider holdings that can change frequently. My calculation that there are no shares available to buy in bulk jives with the explanation of why Carl Icahn has to go for the relatively expensive converts to gain ownership vs simply buying 17MM in the open market, which he could easily do if over 100MM shares traded after the bond offer and there were 16-17MM in the free float. Of course we can buy our peanuts in the market (1K, 10K or even 100K shares). But if we try to buy 1MM shares or more, I am sure the broker will say "tough luck mate". Nobody on this MB is rich enough to test that theory but the math says so and is confirmed by CI's move. Also going after the bonds will drive the short rats out, as a good chunk are most probably the bondholders. So, it is a "kill 2 birds with one stone" approach by CI.
Dave, Looks like I was using old numbers from the Nasdaq website. The free float is actually non-existent now. I think the institutional holdings is 73% and insiders is probably still 11%. That is 84% of 104M OS or 87MM shares. What is the float? Also 87MM shares. So, there is no shares left in the float according to that calculation. IC knows that and also knows that the bondholders are holding a significant short position. That's why he is going for the bonds to get those rats out first. He can't buy enough shares to get control (no float) and so he has to go after the convertible bonds to get an equity stake as well, albeit at a much much higher price than now. I am curious to know if I had the means to buy 17MM shares on that day we traded 36MM shares, would I have gotten it? I can only guess but logic tells me no or else IC would have bought 17MM shares for $30MM and be forced to file a 13F. And he could just walk away from the bond offer. Much better than paying $170MM for the bonds to get the same 17MM shares! See the logic? Clear as mud?