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Southwest Bancorp Inc. Message Board

betasplen1 126 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Mar 2, 2004
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  • Reply to

    VVUS us 6 to 9 months away!!!

    by bubbleboy2225 8 hours ago
    betasplen1 betasplen1 5 hours ago Flag

    OK, good to know. I will probably change mine to biocurse666....

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 5 hours ago Flag

    Correction: He should have been fired a year ago. But better late than never. Are you starting a petition? I will join....

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 6 hours ago Flag

    Earnings consensus for next year has moved up from -0.85/share (90 days ago) to -0.45/share (last 7 days) with a high estimate of +$0.43/share and revenue for $215MM. And the stock valuation is $150MM and falling. Best joke of the year on Wall St...

  • Reply to

    VVUS us 6 to 9 months away!!!

    by bubbleboy2225 8 hours ago
    betasplen1 betasplen1 7 hours ago Flag

    I am not panicking since I know we have twice the cash of what we are trading today and Stendra is there as a back-up to save the day (if these obesity drugs never get off the ground - sorry for the pun) and that we are working towards profitability in 2016. But I can't get over the feeling of wanting Seth fired. At least, that is a better thought than wanting him hit by a bus or being subjected to Chinese water torture. Now, if what mike is thinking comes true (collusion by Seth for a take under), then I won't mind the latter for the moron. What the heck is the hold up for a share buyback when they clearly have more than enough cash (mountain of cash in fact) to get to profitability, as well as CVOT deferment and no debt obligations till 2018? It's OK - I don't need an answer to that. BTW, did we lose Chris and his 100K shares? He has disappeared lately...

  • Reply to

    STENDRA does NOT work in 15 Minutes

    by ruprecht1490 Jul 31, 2015 12:55 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 31, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    Your position, if taken, does not count since you are just trading. You very well know that the injection nonsense is just that and not applicable to humans. You have other intelligent things to say. Don't blow it is all I ask...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 31, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    Janet, I have learned to swim among sharks. Seth pushed me off the boat a few months ago...

  • Reply to

    STENDRA does NOT work in 15 Minutes

    by ruprecht1490 Jul 31, 2015 12:55 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 31, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    rup, please don't tempt me to put you on ignore. Stick with your argument that Q should not sell (though it did sell $14MM last quarter) because it is just a concoction of existing drugs. This injection thingy is uhm... just too stupid - let it go...

  • Reply to

    Positives from CC

    by betasplen1 Jul 31, 2015 8:51 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 31, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    I am hoping the flushing of retail is over as well with the 1+MM shares sold today (and the few million over the last week). If today marks the bottom (not sure why it had to fall in the first place after they beat estimates handily and talked about positive FCF finally), I don't know if I should put more capital to average down over the next few weeks. Or is it probably better to just conserve my capital so that I can wait longer for the inevitable turnaround in SP when the company reports positive earnings next year? Dilemmas dilemmas....

  • Reply to

    Positives from CC

    by betasplen1 Jul 31, 2015 8:51 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 31, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    No comments on this one? I actually spent some time on this post. LOL! To clarify, the $1.2MM/month expense savings starting in 3Q will be from the staff reductions.

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 31, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    lori, agreed. Very idiotic way of starting a press release when they beat estimates by 20%. But I think they did the smart thing by reducing their payroll by 50 sales staff (immediate expense savings) and outsourcing it to Kadmon (more revenue with lower margin). Now, use those savings to buy back some stock!! They have no understanding of how to make cash work for their shareholders (or they are purposely acting like idiots)...

  • of today's stupidity (half of cash value???) but maybe I should conserve my cash too so that I can wait to ride this back up when they turn FCF positive....

  • 1) No share buyback. If Seth feels like the new heart study will keep the FDA at bay for 2 years, we have $270MM just sitting there, earning nothing for the shareholders or company. That is downright stupid, dumb, idiotic fiscal irresponsibility. From my calculation, we have enough cash to last till 2020. You can't reserve just $30MM (5-10MM shares depending on the short squeeze) to show confidence in this new direction to profitability? Or even simply announce it and buy back only to support the stock on dips, if the shares fly up too fast. The mention of fiduciary duty rang hollow when they didn't throw a bone for loyal shareholders....
    2) Still no new partnerships for Avanafil after a year of promises.
    3) No offers for Q or the company yet. I didn't expect it but the secretive intro of Kadmon raised my hope a bit.
    4) And the obvious one - Have to wait for a while to see the stock go back above cash levels.

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Jul 31, 2015 8:51 AM Flag

    True, we longs were expecting something more than a routine earnings beat when they moved up the ER. Turns out- it was probably so that Seth could go enjoy some time with the kids before school started. But there were some positives that I overlooked in the disappointment of a quick buck (after 10 months!!):

    1) The dude finally started talking about FCF breakeven and when they wanted to achieve that. From a simplistic point of view, they are currently losing about $5MM/month on a cash flow basis. Not accounting for one-off charges, they will save $1.2MM/month. So, revenue will have to increase $3.8MM/month from current levels or $11.5MM/month. Let's assume Q drops back to the historical average of $4MM/month, even if Kadmon sales reps are world beaters. That means, Avanafil will have to fill that gap of $7.5MM/month from the current $2.7MM/month. From their estimate, they are conservatively expecting Avanafil product revenues to grow by 20% QoQ. And this is excluding any milestone payments from that $350MM stash. This is a very low target, given the historical 60% QoQ growth before AUXL dropped the ball due to ENDO's M&A.
    2) If the 2 year $5MM heart study is intended to replace the $200MM CVOT, there is no cash crunch for 5 years even at current cash burn levels (which will start dropping significantly starting 3Q15).
    3) He was confident that their IP for Q will be intact despite the well documented ANDA applications from 2 big generics. For a guy who is wishy-washy on everything, that says something.
    4) From the overt de-emphasis of Q and huge inventory write down, they would be open to it's sale to the generics or Kadmon or even ARNA (since B is going down the tubes). I am assuming a $300MM offer will get it now, $500MM offer will get it if they can avoid CVOT and a $1B offer will be accepted if the anti obesity act is passed. So, ironically it's value simply increases with time even if it is dead weight for now.

    In conclusion,patience is the way to win here.

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Jul 30, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    1) about the deplorable stock price
    2) about why they are hoarding all that cash
    3) Latin American partnership

    And the moron has the gall to talk about fiduciary duty?? Pfft.... Are the 70MM shares being used as toilet paper somewhere?

  • Reply to

    Revenue compare with OREX & ARNA

    by folkxyz01 Jul 30, 2015 4:31 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 30, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    pmt, I do see some black choppers descending on my house right about now. I gotta run now....Seth can you show the finger to the rest of the analysts and close the call? BTW, I didn't know you could spell fiduciary duty. You would use that as an excuse to layoff 60 people but won't do jack for the shareholders with the stock down 95% since your term..

  • Reply to

    Revenue compare with OREX & ARNA

    by folkxyz01 Jul 30, 2015 4:31 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 30, 2015 4:44 PM Flag

    $5MM for alternate study ending 2017. These guys will be sitting on a mountain of cash and do nothing for the shareholders. pmt, please just shoot Seth and get it over with...

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Jul 30, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    OK, they beat estimates as expected. They are further reducing expenses to meet positive FCF next year. Nothing sexy like buyout, share buyback or even a partnership. Good news is they are planning to be around in Dec 2016. pmt must be getting ready to go and shoot Silly Seth right about now. Don't hold back!

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 30, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Wow, "NEVER trade over 2.00 again"? You are definitely earning your stripes with such a strong statement. Love your conviction. Anyone wants to bet whether shabbir or buttboy's winning streak of lucky predictions will end soon? I would raise my hand but Seth has thrown so many curve balls that my shoulder is aching with all the swings and misses...

  • Reply to

    Kadmon-Vivus Reverse Merger in the works?

    by straightupbiz Jul 30, 2015 9:54 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 30, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    I will reject with my 100K shares if and when I get the voting form. But I will secretly hope that ENDO and TEVA will make counter bids and get the shorts sweating. Let me start working on my exit plan in case VVUS decides to sell itself to the highest bidder...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 30, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    I thought Kadmon got the $500MM in 2013? If they still have access to that money, then yes, it will be enough to start a low ball bid for VVUS and a phenomenal purchase (ROI wise) if they can pull it off. That's what I have been telling Stupid Seth to do with a share buyback all these months!

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