Apart from the total disconnect from fundamentals and ludicrous valuation in relations to its peers:
1) Why are institutions, while losing tons of money on paper, not turning activists? 70MM shares simply sitting obediently at the bottom of the toilet bowl?
2) Why are there no lawsuits for the worst NASDAQ performance over the past 2 years? Seth needs some kind of "recognition" for this stupendous feat, no?
3) Why are people stating that the shorts are scared or that someone is accumulating on the sly when the stock is trading at all-time lows and doesn't get more than a single day of reprieve from the one way ticket to hell?
Sorry - just in a reflective mood today...
pmt, I believe in the sense of urgency too, especially with the stock in the $1s (#$^&%$!!!). But nothing has fazed our calm CEO. He didn't care at $20- $10 - $5- $2 and so do not know if he had a mental threshold before getting out of bed and going to work. Unless he is poked with a sharp stick by the equally soporific BOD, that is a tall ask. What is most perplexing is that none of the large shareholders has turned activist. Neither has there been any lawsuit for the worst stock performance in the NASDAQ (all-time lows) while the Index is reaching all time highs.... What is the deal with that?
pmt, I don't think you replied to my earlier question on why you think it is do or die on this CC. They have a boatload of cash (a buck above current levels in fact) that they WON'T use for buyback or CVOT trial or debt reduction for quite some time. The street probably isn't expecting much and hence allowed the hammering after the ER date announcement, even if earlier than usual. ENDO only restarted active sales of Stendra a month ago which won't count in 2Q. Qsymia crossed the 12K mark in subscriptions for the first time in its history. Sure, I do hope that the morons talk up the company prospects with some factual data but even that was too much to ask for the past 3 CCs. The passing of the obesity act is the highest probability event that 'should' help Q sales significantly. Of course, it has nothing to do with the part timer CEO doing anything for the company. I don't expect anything on the acquisition front or a company share buyback because management thinks we are greatly undervalued (duh!) and that it will be a great opportunity to increase shareholder value and investment returns and also show confidence in the business plan and products. Maybe a partnership in Latin America but I don't think the shorts care much about that - they didn't about the 15 min labeling, or EU approval or extra patents for Q. All in all, I am expecting another earnings beat (though marginal) and some positive forward looking statements on Stendra and Q. But they are not at the juncture of do or die by any means even if we want to fire the CEO for his lack of shareholder responsibility. All I can hope for is that Seth proves us wrong and says "in your face" with something unexpectedly good...
"You're no genius just a big mouth on the right side of history for now."
Stating the obvious about buttboy (and Shabbir for that matter) but still ROTFLMFAO!!!
Heard that only a million times over the past 10 months. What is one more, right? Just to put things in perspective, we are down $28 in 2 years and up 4 cents today (and praying that it holds). Shall we hold the cheer leading for something more significant perhaps (news and PPS wise)??
I agree with your assertion that it is a waste trying to hold management accountable for the stock price. But it makes me (and pmt) feel better - so there is some benefit, though not tangible. But I don't agree that they have no control over the PPS. I don't think I have to repeat the ways they could have prevented the stock from falling below $3 in the first place...
I believe VVUS has not been marginable since it fell below $3 (over 6 months). I have already been through the margin selling, tax selling, insider selling, short selling and retail selling scenarios with this wretched stock. I have experienced no buying, apart from my ill advised forays. Against the welfare of my health, I have been watching this ticker but not learning anything. I was happy to buy at cash levels and today I am down 50% on no bad news, increase in institutional ownership (and revenues) and decrease in short position. Go figure...
Looking at the chart, the last closing low of $1.88 was touched on 20 Dec 2000. We have already beaten that handily thanks to Seth. The all-time intra-day low was $1.59, achieved the next day on 21 Dec 2000. We are well on our way to test and beat that before Thu. Seth is so amazing (for the shorts) that he is managing to do this while the company is bringing in all-time high revenues....
pmt, no offense taken. First, that post was 3 months ago when the stock was $2.30. Now it is 26% lower and probably going even lower since there is nothing till Thu to stop the pattern of more naked shorting, coupled with retail throwing in the towel. Second, I did not say they would announce a buyback - simply that they should. The net cash is not as simple as deducting the debt from current cash levels. A lot of that debt is convertible to shares (which lends to the theory that the debtors have lent shares to shorts), which means it will not be a cash deduction when they come due. In other words, net cash is much higher than it looks. Third, it looks more and more likely that either CVOT will be dropped or the ANDA applications from TEVA and ACT will be thrown out. Cash might not be needed for an expensive trial. Fourth, this is an even better time to announce a buyback (than Apr 28) since the stock is trading more than a whole buck per share BELOW cash in hand - i.e. best bang for the buck for a flip at triple digit gains later, if necessary. Fifth, there is no other announcement, save a bidding war, that will kick the shorts out in one fell swoop. That's all I was saying and am still saying (though more silently these days as Sloth Seth is a moron who has proved not to do jack)...
Rup, it is just an observation. If Shabbir and buttboy are really pundits on Wall St who can predict stock behavior accurately, they will be running some hedge fund and making millions instead of posting on a YMB. Sure they have been right but this has been a momentum based market for the past couple of years. Overpriced stocks have kept going higher and undervalued stocks have kept falling. You cannot assign intelligence to accurate predictions (in hindsight) that have no underlying factual backing. You can train a parrot to say "Vivus sucks" or "Netflix rocks" and claim they are smart due to dumb luck actually. I suspect you know what I meant and are simply trying to rub it in that the longs were/are wrong, no matter how many facts support their investment thesis. But I can agree to one opinion shared by shorts - Seth sucks!
that the only ones correct so far have been buttboy (with his imaginary claims of shorting and making profits at every new low) and shabbir's ramblings. When will one of the intelligent posters (measured in terms of factual data discussed and astute extrapolations) actually be correct in Wall St's opposite land?
pmt, I don't believe there will be a buyout interest or secondary announced with the earnings. Those are usually independent events that merit their own set of PRs. There cannot be a CVOT trial before a verdict on the lawsuits against ACT and TEVA are settled IMO. There is no way the FDA dumps the financial obligations of a 5 year heart study after Q has been on the market for 3 years with no adverse reactions, and then allow ACT and TEVA to make generic Q. So, there could be no need for cash for quite some time (1-2 years) and hence no need to dilute at these ridiculous levels.
Then why is the share price dropping like a rock after an early ER announcement? The low volume indicates that it could be one of two things. 1) Further shorting so that they can cover for reasonable prices even if there is good news. For example, the stock now needs a 40% one day gain to get back to the 200 DMA!! 2) Some more retail longs throwing in the towel as the stock hits their stop losses...
Finally, what am I thinking about this early ER announcement? I am too tired to think of the possibilities after being gutted like a hapless tuna upon a fishing vessel over the past month. However, I would give the probability of good news at 60% (from experience with other companies reporting early), neutral news at 30% (from experience with Sloth Seth) and bad news at 10% (though I can't think of any at this time). So, there is a 90% probability that this additional drop will be recovered after the ER..
Can we request the markets to be closed till next Thu please? That seems to be the only way to stop the bleeding. I don't know why so many longs are suddenly bullish about this 17% drop on no news in 2 days . I wish I could be so thick skinned but let me go empty my bowels first. Please don't start cheering about a 'recovery' in AH on 6K shares..Since the effin' BOD won't fire Seth, I can only hope that some other foolish company makes an offer to hire him for more money (whose insiders are shorts) and he leaves for greener pastures. .
Tells me nobody wants to buy anymore shares and the last of the retail longs (except a few on this board) are throwing in the towel. Also tells me that people are expecting a dilution (or debt) announcement rather than a buyout or strong earnings results or share buyback next week... 30% drop on nothing since I went on vacation! What a pathetic stock, CEO, BOD and Wall St logic....Amazon worth more than Walmart on just 19 cents in earnings?
bio, why not you try Stendra instead of Viagra for your farm animals? Maybe cows and mares will endorse and advertise our products better than Seth (like Chick-fil-a??). Sorry if I insulted your livestock (by comparing to a brain dead human)....
in order of maximum effect (based on 10 month observation of stock to news):
1) Buyout offer - Unexpected news
2) Stock buyback - Unexpected news
3) Significant insider buying - Unexpected news
4) Me selling my VVUS shares - Unexpected news (and no, I haven't sold any)
5) Firing of Seth strictly based on pathetic stock performance - Unexpected news
6) Sudden uptick of Stendra sales - Expected from efficacy and ENDO action but not much hope today
7) CVOT settlement in favor of VVUS - Expected from Seth comments before but not much hope today
8) Obesity act being passed - Expected news since it is only logical but shorts won't care short term
9) Partner for Stendra in Latin America - Expected news from Seth comments before but shorts won't care short term
10) Q taking over No. 1 spot in Obesity drugs - Expected news from weekly trends but shorts won't care short term
pmt, Why is it critical that this ER will make or break the company? The last I saw, they have plenty of cash ($280MM or so) and no near term obligations (debt due or CVOT) and decent revenues (wrt to OREX and ARNA at least) that cash is not an issue for a long while. Of course, I'd like to fire the CEO and the BOD for letting the stock fall 30% below cash levels and doing diddly about it. But if the institutions who hold 70% of the company are not whining, what can fish fry like us do about it? I sure would like to sue but on what grounds?
rup, "things are not going poorly", just the darn stock price. Everything else is going just fine with respect to ARNA and OREX who are the main competitors. You can cry all you want on why Q should not sell but the reality is VVUS makes lot more from Q than their competition does from their partnered, "novel' drugs (net revenue), including your beloved Dr. Henry's company. And Stendra will continue to improve sales even if you rather inject it into your penal wall (like a horse or bull). I want Seth fired for letting the shorts run the stock into the ground - plain and simple.
needs to be fired next since they are getting rid of old baggage. What is the lame BOD thinking, keeping him around as the stock drops 5% each day? Can anyone sue for shareholder negligence?