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PDI, Inc. Message Board

betasplen1 536 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 25, 2014 10:05 AM Member since: Mar 2, 2004
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  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 25, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    They think Everest will go for that much, if they find a buyer. And if they get only 25% of what they paid for Heald, then that is another $100M. So, $200M in a fire sale scenario, fully discounting Wyotech.

    The article further states:

    "Its shares trade at 14.6 times forward 12-month earnings, one of the lowest multiples among peers that include Strayer Education Inc, DeVry Education Group Inc and Universal Technical Institute Inc, StarMine data shows."

    That's the value proposition if the government reverses course for any reason. A small possibility if COCO can show the monitor that they are operating under govt guidelines over the next 5-6 months.

    "The key to selling its assets may lie in whether the Department of Education uses its discretionary powers to waive liabilities for potential buyers around the legal and regulatory issues that hang over the company."

    That is almost a given since the Govt does not want to jeopardize the future of 70K students and write off the billions in financial aid they have provided to them from taxpayers' money.

    The article is not that harsh as the title suggests. It is quite reasonable in its assumptions.

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Jul 24, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    That indicates back and forth trading between MMs and/or with their preferred clients. It's just a waiting game now. I am going to lay low on this message board till the inflection point. I am expecting a run to the 80s this Fall. Over and out...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 23, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    You can insult my intelligence. That's OK. In the end, the results are what matters. Just like I told you when and why I got in, I will also tell you when I exit and you can make your final conclusions at that time. I agree talk is cheap. But I have put in more than $50K here. What are you doing? Just talking??

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 23, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    7777, Like I said before, we can discuss the nuances till we are blue in the face. There are a lot of unknowns at this time. But from what I have observed on defunct companies with high short positions and a positive net asset value on paper, they always (100% of the time) rise 2-4x before settling at the final value based on liquidation. This is a technical play for me. Pure and simple...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 23, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Yes, he left out $221M in property plant and equipment, $71M in long term investments and $87M in other tangible assets. Net tangible book value is $95M or $1.09 as shown in the Mar 14 balance sheet. This is fully discounting $385M in goodwill and intangible assets and so a very conservative estimate of actual book value. Negative book value? LOL. With 28M short, I guess everyone has his own agenda.

  • Reply to

    Done

    by betasplen1 Jul 22, 2014 12:23 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 22, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    I am willing to wait 3 months to see how this plays out. However, if my target is reached earlier, I will move on. I don't think expecting 85 cents is unrealistic. Net tangible book value = $1.09 and momo traders will jump in once the stock moves above 48 cents into the GAP territory, while shorts will cover to protect their profits. There is some time for all this to happen and so one needs to be patient.

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Jul 22, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    Completed my purchase today. 250K shares @0.222 average. Time to sit back and watch the show. Popcorn anyone?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    last chance

    by msgalaria100 Jul 21, 2014 11:08 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 21, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    Mike, nobody knows the future when it comes to the stock market - hence it draws a parallel to gambling at the casino. But you can look at history, analyze the facts and make a more intelligent gamble on Wall street. I am 90% sure this will test your cost basis, based on my observations of BK or near BK companies. My target is much higher (85 cents). The govt is involved with a smooth transition of the schools to new ownership and the independent monitor will ensure that all parties, including shareholders, get a fair shake at this, even if it is for a loss. Today clearly looks like the first day of reversal with a spike on large volume. I will accelerate my purchases since it looks like time is running out to buy at the lows. I did not expect the run to 28s when I purchased at 22.5 today. It is all about making money in the end and the shorts will get nervous as this moves higher. One can argue about the value of Heald and their other schools till the cows come home but this is a technical play now, especially with such a huge short position and almost zero chance for BK for the rest of the year......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    last chance

    by msgalaria100 Jul 21, 2014 11:08 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 21, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    Wait. I am not done accumulating! Flying now....

  • Reply to

    last chance

    by msgalaria100 Jul 21, 2014 11:08 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 21, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    Added another 20K shares today. Now at 200K shares. Will add more the rest of the week. I remember you from the DOLN board. Missed out on the 10 bagger there by selling out too early. Not making the same mistake here. Buy and hold till you get your target.

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Jul 18, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    to stay on my DCA purchase plan. I thought I could get 19 cents but there seems to be strong support at 20 cents instead of stop losses by traders. Usually, MMs will take advantage of the retail stop losses at the support line to drop it below that on low volume. I have bids below, in case that happens, but am impressed with the action so far. Will have 180K shares before close of business...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Net tangible assets

    by betasplen1 Jul 17, 2014 9:29 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 17, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    I have limit orders down to 15 cents. Could happen next week if there is no news...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 17, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Death comes to everyone in some way, shape or form. There is no need to invite it. I doubt you will get to your breakeven but you can recover most of the money when this surges in the next few months. You need to exercise patience. I understand it is easier said than done. It will go lower too in the mean time. But that's how these all play out.

  • Reply to

    What's with the spike?

    by brian.hauswirth Jul 11, 2014 10:38 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 17, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    I checked my position as of last. Still holding 3.575M shares distributed across a few accounts. Cost basis is 0.007 or where we are right now. I wish management doesn't keep jumping the gun and only reports progress as they happen. The revenues, profits, share buybacks, stock dividend etc are all just forecasts and not new information since Feb. Good news is that there has been no insider selling since the news broke out and everything is being reported to the SEC via proper channels. Bad news is, there is no insider buying either and we haven't gone anywhere since. I will just hold the position and not add till we start seeing actual results. I rather average up on improving fundamentals than average down on hope...

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Jul 17, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    was $96M or $1.09/share as of 3/31/14. This is after removing all goodwill and liabilities owed. With 28M shares short as of 6/30/14 and the impending catalysts, that is the price to watch. Even a conservative 50% retrace yields 65 cents or 200% from these levels but the overshoot could be substantial in a short squeeze scenario and take it to net tangible value. BK companies with negative book values have had much bigger % gains due to a short squeeze. I will be buying in lots for the next 5-7 trading days as I don't think anything significant will happen till Aug or Sep. The volume has dropped back to the normal 1M+ range and the spread is tight, which is a good time to accumulate IMO...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 16, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    I will start winding down my purchases by next week. No particular target in mind but the way I am going, I might end up with around 250K shares. Wonder why the MMs are not testing 20 cents yet. Maybe not enough supply to fill demand (shorts who want to cover and hedgies who want to buy) ? Shorts are holding onto their positions against better judgement IMO. How much more profit do they want when BK is off the table? Key is to be patient and not expect a sale announcement tomorrow or next week. I will give it a couple of months. This should test 85 cents at least (maybe over a buck if there is momo money) before the fat lady sings...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 16, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    You better give grandma the best healthcare when this pans out! I am risking just my money here - so no pressure. LOL! 153,526 shares and counting. My order at 21 cents is not filling for the 3rd day - just one partial fill on Monday...

  • Reply to

    why would anyone buy these schools?

    by rectal_destructionnn Jul 15, 2014 4:40 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 16, 2014 6:18 AM Flag

    The plan reached with the DoE allows for a relatively seamless transition to new management. There should be minimal impact to students. They don't even have to warn them of the impending sale. Employees could be affected by layoffs in the future but they can't win a lawsuit against COCO as this was caused by government policy and being a for-profit school, it is like layoffs in any other private company. Paying 50% of intrinsic value for the existing schools is a much easier way to instantly increase sustainable revenues and profit than fighting for short term revenue boosts with other competitors.

    Sure it is easy to sound optimistic if one gets in at this price. One doesn't really need $1.60 or $1 or even 80 cents to call this a successful investment. Even a 100% gain will be sweet enough. Those who got in before the announcement can only hope to recoup some, if not most, of their money depending on the sale price. It would be interesting to see the latest institutional and hedge fund ownership. I bet the latter is all over this to profit from the impending gains, especially from a short squeeze.

  • Reply to

    why would anyone buy these schools?

    by rectal_destructionnn Jul 15, 2014 4:40 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 15, 2014 6:38 PM Flag

    Because it will be a turn-key business with everything in place from admin and teachers, to land, buildings and facilities. Just management changes and they will get a great price in a liquidation event. Even if COCO gets only $250M for all the schools or just $3M per college, and they pay off the debt, that is still $1.60/share left for common and preferreds. .

  • Reply to

    Heald Colleges worth $300 million alone=)

    by dgnewton49 Jul 11, 2014 9:53 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Jul 15, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    I now have 100K shares and will add 10-20K each day it falls. I still think it will go to the mid teens if 20 cents is breached but one can't time the bottom and so it is better to dollar cost average. I am willing to wait a few months to see the sale announcement and re-test of the 85 cents to buck area.

PDII
4.11+0.01(+0.12%)Jul 25 3:17 PMEDT

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