Ed, what if you are wrong on the '20th warning'? Life and Wall St are never 100% predictable. If I were in your position (assuming you really made all that money), I would take the gift horse and move on. Go enjoy the spoils in some island, sipping pina colada. I intend to do just that once this is trading at a PE of 75 in a year or two or gets bought out. You seem to be falling into the trap of most gamblers at Las Vegas. Don't quit while you are ahead, and keep raising your stakes based on past success. Shorting a 25 cent stock with reckless abandon, trading at cash value, with over 30% of the free float shorted, after management has taken the necessary corrective actions, after it has already fallen 98%, when there are so many other bloated stocks to be had? Good grief! Your fellow bashers are not so bold (or crazy). They bash with no stake. If they are wrong, only their ego is hurt, not their wallets. Actually, don't take my advice. Let's talk at the other end of the spectrum in a year or two. Short all you can! Apparently, the broker who is lending the shares to you is as crazy as you..
Edgar, Looks like you are the one emotionally married to this stock. Despite making a killing (supposedly), you spend a lot more time and effort than longs like me, bashing daily to get a few more pennies. However, this bash was a little different. Not that your future 250K short shares is any of my concern. If you can get it, go for it. Let's look at your 12 reasons.
1. Still living in 2011, eh? Sigh!
2. Like your Toyota contract loss nonsense. Your source is looking for another job? Yeah, she is unbiased in her analysis. I am not going to threaten SEC action for posting lies or apparent insider info since the SEC is quite useless when it comes to this kind of stuff. But knock it off, will ya? Makes you look hopelessly desperate - very unlike someone who has minted money here.
3-5,8-9. They did a lot of stupid things in 2011 and 2012. The stupidity has caused the stock to fall from $20 to 20 cents. Is history your favorite subject? How are these examples relevant to the future (from 20 cents)?
6. Maybe true. If they get some money from the Greek (I doubt the govt can afford anything), then why not avail of the opportunity? Their R&D division is based there, no more sales. I don't see the relevance here..
7. They have already consolidated their space, Mr. History buff...
10. OK. But 800-900 employees are still there - too much in my opinion. If the benefits suck - why not leave? Oh, that's why your source is leaving, if she can find a job that is...
11. The stock was $4 when they joined. They knew the transition is going to take a year and the stock could take more hits along the way. I don't think they imagined a BK style hit to 20 cents. Anyway, why take the hits when you are new to the company? They are smart, experienced execs. They are still here? Why? They will amend their employment contracts to include stock options and stock when the reversal starts.
12. What is No. 12 again? Just wanted to make it a dirty dozen?
Enough wasting my time here. Later.
Thanks for spending the time to come up with the headcount list Ed. Their Greece office is still running - they just eliminated their sales force there. So we have 700 employees on LinkedIn (including the CMO!) and probably another 100-200 that are not accounted for. Thanks to the other poster who bothered to call some of the offshore offices to check whether there is a pulse! As shareholders, we need to do active research instead of sweating over opinions on a message board.
For your sanity, let me start by saying come over to the Investor's Hub message board. Not sure you have anything to gain on this board - I don't. Regarding Scott Avila - he was hired not to bring new clients (he has no background in this area of course!) but to design an efficient marketing strategy as well as to make sure that potential clients are financially stable and worth taking on - so as not to repeat the mistakes with the Greeks. I specifically asked her if he will be doing any reorganization or fat trimming and she said no. Leslie was not cheerleading by any means. She seemed very knowledgeable about the company unlike what some chauvinist pigs here claim. When asked about future free cash flow, she said she won't sugar coat it and said it strictly depends on how quickly they can collect from their new revenue base of customers. She also said that they are constantly in talks with HSBC and not taking their support for granted. Finally, when asked if they are completely done with Greece, she said they still have a presence there, but only for R&D.
Paul, thanks for the scoop. I was trying to find out what caused today's fall. I did see a couple of articles posted with this headline today, though not from mainstream media. Anyway, I thought Krishna was leaving one way or another since Mobclix is on the chopping block (maybe a deal in place and hence his leaving) and his expertise is not needed any longer. His linkedin profile still shows him as CMO of Velti though. Anyway, glad to know what today's buzz was all about.
I noticed it is a work in progress too but since there are hardly any posts there (400 total), we can quickly revive it with DD and objectivity. Of course, you won't have the fun of jousting with the the naysayers and shorts, if that is your cup of tea. I have no interest in convincing them of my point of view or arguing against their case. Waste of time and energy talking to parrots who keep regurgitating old news on how we got to 35 cents. At least if they had something material that is current, I would have listened. I am tired of the pumpers here who got the parrot syndrome as well. Just continue providing facts on why being long (at these levels) has a much better risk-to-reward ratio than being short over the next year. I welcome all the 'true longs' to join me there. I go by the same handle. Let the Yahoos play here in the meantime...
moth, The shorts have fallen in love with their position and are feeling fat, dumb and happy about their decision right now. Most of the longs have been eviscerated and have left the building, waving the white flag on their way out (or left bashing the company for their losses). When you get emotionally attached to your position (in this case, shorts that are well in the black), that's when you get into trouble. The remaining few longs are obviously not going to be swayed by scare tactics on a message board. They rely on facts and not opinions or the rehashing of the past. I am not going to address the shorts, bashers, pumpers or traders here. Waste of my time. I will keep posting my research for anyone who wants to read facts. But the Yahoo message board is filled with Yahoos (why am I surprised?) and there is too much #$%$ to sift through for those looking for meaningful info. I am moving over to IHUB. I would suggest you do the same. Later Yahoos....
I said short covering will be minimal based on 8/30 data and price movement. Check.
I said NASDAQ non-compliance letter will have minimal, if any, effect on the downside. Check.
I said institutions will be holding after the crash. Check though I will get more data soon.
I am not going to predict near term prices but I am still sticking with my conservative $1.65 target by Apr 1, 2014, without any reverse split for the smart alecs. I have my money where my mouth is. I have a feeling the smart shorts will start covering since the knee-jerk reaction down did not happen (a less than 1 penny drop on 55K shares is a joke). But maybe I am overestimating their intelligence to take a generous gift when it is literally knocking them on their head to be taken. Being smart is not only holding onto a winning position for out-sized gains but knowing when to take profits when the factual, not emotional, evidence shows you have maxed out your returns and it is time to have the money working elsewhere.
LOL! You are one funny (or clueless) dude. I bought more today just for kicks. I shall talk to you on Apr 2014. I'll be here. The real question is, will you and your other moping friends (who sold for losses) be here?
De-listing notice finally here but guess what?
"If the Company does not achieve compliance with the Minimum Bid Price Requirement by April 1, 2014, the Company may be eligible for additional time by applying to transfer the listing of its ordinary shares to The NASDAQ Capital Market."
Bottomline, delisting is a NON-ISSUE. Shorts, please continue to hold, while paying your exorbitant interest rates and playing with the fail to deliver status. We longs will appreciate your future help when one of the catalysts hits the news wires before Apr 2014. I am loving the institutional holdings news, and ironically the short position as of 9/30 and this "de-listing: news as well.
Short Interest (Shares Short) 15,597,300
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 13.6
Short Percent of Float 21.08 %
Short Interest - Prior 16,287,600
Short % Increase / Decrease -4.24
Only 2.2M shares covered since the crash. Insiders Moukas and Kaskavelis are holding 8M shares just between them alone. Fidelity and others holding 14.5M shares and a lot more to still report. You know how much I am holding. That is 23.1M shares locked between us thus far or 32% of the float. 15.6M shares yet to be squeezed on a catalyst. I really don't care if the stock is 34 cents or 40 cents today. All the DD I have done so far (post crash) points to outsized gains in the next 6-12 months for those who have the sphericals to hold long through this dark and agonizing period of the stock's life cycle. And I don't mean 60 cents or a buck. I am holding till I feel the stock is overvalued when everybody and their brother is buying at a PE of 50+. Management is taking the right steps (from my research) and the market is still hot for the next 5 years. Cheers!
The institutional holdings are trickling in but this is what we got so far:
Fidelity Management and Research Company: 7,127,908 shares. Change: -2,069,257 shares
Fidelity Select Software and Computer Sv: 2,445,500 shares. Change: 0 shares
Fidelity Select Electronics Portfolio : 2,031,650 shares. Change: +1,616,250 shares
Fidelity Dividend Growth Fund: 1,639,166 shares. Change: 0 shares
Fidelity Advisor Stock Selector Mid Cap Fund: 215,084 shares. Change: 0 shares
Fidelity Advisor Dividend Growth Fund: 192,692 shares. Change: 0 shares
Fidelity Select Telecommuncts Portf: 145,900 shares. Change: 0 shares
Fidelity® Stock Selector All Cap Fund: 45,983 shares. Change: -101 shares
Fidelity Advisor Electronics Fund: 34,420 shares. Change +27,350 shares
Fidelity Asset Manager 50% Fund: 30,996 shares. Change -57 shares
Fidelity Asset Manager 70% Fund: 19,948 shares. Change +21 shares
Fidelity Total: 13,929,247 shares as of 8/31/13
Variable Insurance Products Fund III-Balanced Portfolio. 284,296 shares. Change 0 shares. 8/31/13
Pyramis Global Advisors, LLC. 148,174 shares. Change -134,185 shares. 8/31/13
PowerShares NASDAQ Internet. 44,763 shares. Change 0 shares. 10/07/13
PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1500 Small-Mid. 42,141 shares. Change 0 shares. 10/07/13
Dreyfus Select Managers Small Cap Val Fd. 72,400 shares. Change 0 shares. 8/31/13.
Total holdings of above institutions: 14,521,021 shares. 20% of float.
Net selling: 559,979 shares (0.56M)
Total volume from Aug 21-31: 58.4M shares
There are institutions that bought 16M shares @ 1.50 that have not reported yet. They didn't sell at $1.40 on 6/30 and I bet they didn't sell much, if any, after the crash. From the partial data above, it is clear the big boys did not bail, even as the stock crashed 66% and traded 58.4 MILLION shares in the first 10 days from Aug 21-31. I am sticking with the big boys on this one. Patience is a virtue.
No problemo. To clarify my 'irrelevance' comment: This sales director could have replaced someone who left recently. We won't know for sure. Looks like all the doomsday fear mongers, who were waiting 7 weeks with no action, are getting a little excited today due to the low volume downtick and are spouting and rating our posts today. Let's get at least 5 thumbs down for this post. I know you bashers can do it. LOL...
I was just making an observation. You buy when they hire, and Edgar shorts when he sees someone leaving. From your response, it seems you are having a rough day. If you are going to wait till 2014, these day to day stock and employee movements are irrelevant. You don't want to thumbs down a guy on the same side as you. LOL!
Yin and the Yang. One Ed buys when he sees someone hired, while another Ed shorts when he sees someone leaving. I wish I had something new to talk about in the past week but I could only find some irrelevant nuggets such as this observation. Nasdaq has given us an extra week (and counting) for the de-listing letter. Now, the new de-list date is Jan 16, 2014 and beyond. If Ross and co. say something about 4Q showing signs of positive FCF during the Nov ER, we should be over $1 long before the de-list deadline. Nothing to do but wait for now.
That was taken care as part of the $7.6M acquisition related costs that were paid to MIG in 2Q. Nothing owed to MIG anymore from the latest 6K...
Ed, hope you break even in the next 6 months :). It always take a lot longer to get back what you lose on Wall St - just the nature of the beast. When I said I don't care about positions taken here, I meant daytrading positions. I am interested when shorts can apparently find shares to short at these levels, amidst a fail to deliver condition. I think they are mostly fibbing though. Also, long timers like yourself averaging down also interests me though I don't recommend it till you see a shift in fundamentals. The trend continues where the stock upticks on good volume and falls back on little volume. That points to accumulation on the long side. All the best...
Being smart is knowing when to take profits as well. When you have a bit of good fortune providing outsized gains on your original decision, and there is little more to gain by holding out longer, the wise thing to do is to take your profits and move to another bloated (short) or undervalued (long) stock. There is NFLX, LNKD, TSLA, FB and others that are sitting at frothy levels that could be much better short candidates than a stock that has fallen 97%, trading at bankrupt levels and has a reasonable shot at coming back since all the necessary actions have been taken to stem the tide. The shorts are doing what is tantamount to me holding all my shares if the stock jumps big on a buyout offer. Ask the short that held onto the stocks I mentioned above just less than a year ago as well as the likes of CROX, LVS and others. A smart decision can turn dumb in a flash. Good luck with your zero shares in the meantime...
If the stock price goes back to $1 (more a question of when IMO), the losses prior to Aug 21 will be made up and they won't have a case to stand on. So, I believe the lawyers are hoping that it sits here forever so that they will get their legal fees while their clients get shafted. That's typical of blood suckers...
The only reason I don't see a buyout scenario down here is neither Ross nor Alex will sell the company for under $250M IMO. That was the market cap when Ross joined in Jan and he prides himself in being a turnaround expert. Alex owns over 4M shares in the $6-7 range. No stock options were granted down here per SEC filings. So, they need the stock to rise quite a bit to make some money, let alone break even. If VELT suddenly drafts a poison pill plan, then a hostile takeover by a private group that is buying boatloads down here is quite plausible and imminent.