% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

PDI, Inc. Message Board

betasplen1 310 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 25, 2015 10:11 AM Member since: Mar 2, 2004
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Aug 27, 2015 7:54 AM Flag

    Some here ask why would someone pay $6 for a $1 stock? In isolation, that is a sanguine question. The real answer is that $6 would still be a steal. The stock has been detached from reality for quite a while actually. At the minimum, it should be trading at cash at hand and falling or rising with that amount. That is $2.70/share. If you look at the fundamental value, the price should be closer to $7/share. How do I arrive at that number? $350MM in guaranteed milestone payments + $50MM in net cash + $100MM for Qsymia IP (conservative) + $100MM for Avanafil IP (conservative) + $100MM for current revenue (PS = 1) = $700MM or about $7/share. That puts it in line with ARNA, which has 2016 projected revenue of less than half of VVUS. So, as you can see, $6 is not a stretch by any means and is actually a steal. Then why $1? I think the "plan" is to make that offer sound great and garner quick shareholder approval from the institutions and shareholders that will lose 50% in the process. Won't you vote for an offer that is a 500% premium and call yourself lucky? I think this "illogical drop" is so that it can be sold for a song and made to sound like a world beating offer at the same time IMO...

  • Where is the money to get into the Cannabis business again?
    No reverse split is nice in principle and shows that they don't want to kill the existing shareholders completely. But back to the original question.
    JP said they will have a proposal in a few weeks, back in mid July. You think that could be a catalyst, if they follow thru that is, as there were over 1B shares traded that day.
    I am thinking of getting another 7.5MM shares to drop my cost basis by half. But that is more money (even if only peanuts, relatively speaking) wasted if this is a confirmed dud, even with new management.
    Thanks for shedding any light on this.

  • Reply to


    by eliminatore2204 Aug 31, 2015 8:43 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 31, 2015 8:57 AM Flag

    So, you have 285K shares of VVUS? Makes me look like a small fish - LOL!

  • Reply to


    by eliminatore2204 Aug 31, 2015 8:43 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 31, 2015 9:21 AM Flag

    OK, now you are making me plain jealous...

  • Reply to

    VVUS "Could Shock the Market Soon"

    by bubbleboy2225 Aug 31, 2015 9:31 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 1, 2015 8:05 AM Flag

    Anybody think Zacks is a little overzealous in their pumping of VVUS lately? I suspect that they got some premier clients into VVUS. They were doing similar bullish reports on CTSO before it ran up 300%. Not that they are influential on Wall St but this overt pumping seems quite unusual. By the way, they don't say anything that we don't already know. Might as well call it the "duh" report. And with a title like that, they only give VVUS a "buy" rating, instead of "strong buy"? Schizos....

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 1, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    Stop it guys. Look over there - VVUS is actually rising! We are witnessing a rare and beautiful event. Enjoy it and leave your disagreements aside for a bit...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 1, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Revenue was $3.25MM and income was $253,000. But this must be with the fishy business (Mekonza) which is not there anymore and whatever little MJ they were selling that is also not there anymore. The Vietnamese CEO ran away and the balance sheet is all hosed up now. How much cash do they have (had only $38K in March) and how can they start this MJ business that they are touting without any money? Is JP financing this? Who knows? I am tempted to put $750 to bring by cost basis down by 50% but why bother if this ain't going anywhere?

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 2, 2015 9:08 AM Flag

    mike, not to bring up a controversial post from the past, but what did really happen to your friends? Why did they decide against VVUS? Or have they? If they have $25-50MM to play with, they can make an absolute killing on VVUS. The free float is only about 4MM shares by my calculation. If they swoop that up for $6-8MM, they can use the rest of the money to squeeze the shorts to pay up double digits. The shorts won't have any choice but to cover. Are they waiting for a catalyst to avoid Seth saying "Don't look at me" for the stock price increase? That would make sense but we have not heard anything from you about this "rumor" since then...

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Sep 2, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    What could that mean? Possible reasons:
    1) Retail selling is over.
    2) Free float has shrunk further due to more strong hands buying and holding.
    3) Momentum traders are entering for a technical trade.
    4) Long term down cycle is complete and long term up cycle has started.

    I don't think it is news driven by the people "in the know". At least, not yet. Hopefully, I am done putting more new money in here (9K at 0.96 was the last and only instance) and just hold what I have till my targets are reached over the next couple of years. A buyout is welcome of course, but I am not holding my breath for it. We will get far less than what we are worth in any scenario. In the mean time, I agree with Mike that there is nothing to get excited while trading below cash levels.

  • Reply to

    Low volume uptick

    by betasplen1 Sep 2, 2015 12:23 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 2, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    dave, I bought at 1.30, 1.20 and 1.18 as well, but by selling another long term holding of mine - btw, that one went up 25% since I sold and VVUS, of course, proceeded to drop below a buck. Shows my immense 'luck' in the markets. Anyway, I didn't want to add anymore into my brokerage account but the drop below $1 kinda forced my hand. I really didn't want more than 100K shares and I now have a bunch more. So, I will just wait for deliverance or buy more if the MMs want to continue my Chinese water torture treatment by taking it below a buck again...

  • Reply to

    Low volume uptick

    by betasplen1 Sep 2, 2015 12:23 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 2, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    dave, I am selling one of my rental properties next month. I might use some of those proceeds to buy back BNHLF or average down more on VVUS, if my conditions are met. I always want to think "win-win" no matter how bad things look. Only way to keep my sanity when I see insane things happening around me...

  • Reply to


    by eliminatore2204 Sep 2, 2015 2:44 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 2, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    Endo can avoid paying hundreds of millions in milestone payments, get $700MM in NOL to offset income tax and get the best weight loss drug in the market to boot for $700-800MM and every shareholder will shower his or her blessings for the steal of the decade.

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Sep 2, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    I only need another 100% break even. Thanks Seth!

  • Reply to

    Up 32% in 7 days!

    by betasplen1 Sep 2, 2015 5:09 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 3, 2015 12:14 AM Flag

    Point taken. I'll shut up for now...

  • Reply to

    archimede law

    by eliminatore2204 Sep 2, 2015 7:57 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 3, 2015 7:56 AM Flag

    Archimede's principle for the 21st century:
    "Even crud floats up to the top eventually. The methane and CO2 produced by bacteria, provide the necessary vertical thrust from below."
    "Equilibrium between troll and long is statistically achievable when principle is discussed in context of Italian cultural history."

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 3, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    Price fixing would only be an issue if there was non elastic demand, no? What these 3 amigos need is price matching with Phen. But Belviq and Contrave will have a hard time doing that after the hundreds of millions spent on 'novel therapy'. Licensing king VVUS is in the best position to do it. Someone please get Seth up from his tea break nap - there are so many things to tell him....

  • Yabadabadoo!!!!!! Sir Gluteus (I like that one otter!), you may be the good luck charm (barf!), along with Sir Aves (emubird). Will Meth Seth take you to another high?

  • Reply to

    We hit a one month high today

    by betasplen1 Sep 3, 2015 12:42 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 3, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    Dave, I ran that one by my calculator. Texas Instruments spat out 36.44685605565% probability (for a $8.75 1-year target). For those who are mathematically challenged, that is more than a 1 in 3 chance! Keep that dream alive....

  • The street is looking at VVUS closely for a breakout. What if Cramer mentions this on his show? I think that will be decent publicity though he is more entertainer than expert stock picker...

  • Reply to

    Are we going to get Cramerized?

    by betasplen1 Sep 3, 2015 1:42 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Sep 3, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    Bubble wants more shares under a buck :). I don't though I will buy more if my arm is twisted again. Still recovering from the last contortion - my tibia took a beating...

0.75-0.02(-2.60%)Nov 25 3:59 PMEST