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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

betasplen1 310 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2015 11:34 AM Member since: Mar 2, 2004
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  • Where is the money to get into the Cannabis business again?
    No reverse split is nice in principle and shows that they don't want to kill the existing shareholders completely. But back to the original question.
    JP said they will have a proposal in a few weeks, back in mid July. You think that could be a catalyst, if they follow thru that is, as there were over 1B shares traded that day.
    I am thinking of getting another 7.5MM shares to drop my cost basis by half. But that is more money (even if only peanuts, relatively speaking) wasted if this is a confirmed dud, even with new management.
    Thanks for shedding any light on this.

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Aug 27, 2015 7:54 AM Flag

    Some here ask why would someone pay $6 for a $1 stock? In isolation, that is a sanguine question. The real answer is that $6 would still be a steal. The stock has been detached from reality for quite a while actually. At the minimum, it should be trading at cash at hand and falling or rising with that amount. That is $2.70/share. If you look at the fundamental value, the price should be closer to $7/share. How do I arrive at that number? $350MM in guaranteed milestone payments + $50MM in net cash + $100MM for Qsymia IP (conservative) + $100MM for Avanafil IP (conservative) + $100MM for current revenue (PS = 1) = $700MM or about $7/share. That puts it in line with ARNA, which has 2016 projected revenue of less than half of VVUS. So, as you can see, $6 is not a stretch by any means and is actually a steal. Then why $1? I think the "plan" is to make that offer sound great and garner quick shareholder approval from the institutions and shareholders that will lose 50% in the process. Won't you vote for an offer that is a 500% premium and call yourself lucky? I think this "illogical drop" is so that it can be sold for a song and made to sound like a world beating offer at the same time IMO...

  • Reply to

    Welcome to QUADS

    by porsche82928 Aug 26, 2015 4:41 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 26, 2015 11:24 PM Flag

    Let me clarify - I meant the new LATF. I know the Vietcong (old management) abandoned the company and ran with the money. I don't see any financial benefit for JP to promise no RS (which is the traditional vehicle for pinksheet scams) and try to right the ship with Latteno Sciences.

  • Reply to

    Welcome to QUADS

    by porsche82928 Aug 26, 2015 4:41 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 26, 2015 10:52 PM Flag

    tguns, I guess my question is more along the lines of whether LATF is a scam. I can halve my cost basis by throwing another $750 into it (what a shame) but if it's a scam, that is more money wasted. Is there a pulse here?

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 26, 2015 10:42 PM Flag

    That my friend, has a 100.00% probability - ending up dead that is. But I won't let that get me down. There is a lot more to life than checking the VVUS ticker. Let's go smell some roses tomorrow! I know - see what Seth has reduced me to....

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 26, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    Odds as per my handy, dandy, rusty, dusty Texas Instruments calculator is 17.34783502 %. Don't ask me why. That's just what it spat out. I think it got skewed lower because of your 1 year target. But decent odds if you ask me...

  • Reply to

    Welcome to QUADS

    by porsche82928 Aug 26, 2015 4:41 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 26, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    Never seen that before. I thought 0.0001 was the lowest it can go - silly me. I will kiss my 7.5MM shares goodbye as I need a 20 bagger to just break even. Can't believe we have come full circle from here to a 125 bagger (1.25 pennies) to back here. Anybody think another run could happen for MJ stocks? This one, unfortunately looks like fishy business (pun intended)...

  • Reply to

    First day in a long time.....

    by bubbleboy2225 Aug 26, 2015 9:55 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 26, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    Over the last 3 days, I 'made' $20K doing nothing on VVUS. But let's stop with that statement - LOL! BTW, I think you can supplement your DT income by joining the hedge fund partner - Arsenio, Ramsbottom and Buttkus Associates - based in Flush, KS. I think we have a member on this board from that group as well. Earn enough to get those set of wheels...

  • Updated 8/19/15:

    iShares US Pharmaceuticals: 2,775,105 (No change)
    iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology: 1,398,158 (+2,808 shares)
    iShares Russell 2000 Growth: 798,950 (No change)
    iShares Micro-Cap 247,987 (No change)

    Updated 7/31/15:

    Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx: 1,605,168 (No change)
    Vanguard Extended Market Idx Inv: 1,134,114 (+9,504 shares)
    Vanguard Small Cap Index: 881,080 (+1,527 shares)
    Vanguard Small Cap Growth Index Inv: 571,640 (No change)
    Vanguard Instl Ttl Stk Mkt Idx InstlPls: 217,970 (No change)

    Bottom line: All holding for eventual fire works...

  • Reply to

    VVUS short interest....

    by bubbleboy2225 Aug 25, 2015 5:03 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 25, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    OK, so that 7.2MM shares that exchanged hands on Aug 12-13 was not short covering. I thought it was controlled covering to let some HFs out without any pain. Since that is not the case, it could be some institutional buying since there was an upward bias on both days with large volume on the upticks and small volume on the downticks that we will hear about later.

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 25, 2015 3:32 PM Flag

    bb, how much do they pay per post? My neighbor's, uncle's, brother-in-law is interested in making some money on the side. He has a high school diploma too. Much appreciated....

  • Reply to

    suspicius timing

    by eliminatore2204 Aug 25, 2015 1:31 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 25, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    I suspect 280K shares is the stimulus. I don't see much option volume either. But $1 could have been the target for shorts to start covering. I don't think we are out of the woods by any means but if the current high holds, this will be the largest % rise for VVUS guessed it - when yours truly first dipped his toes into this stock on Sep 18, 2014. Can you believe the volume was 34MM shares that day ($150MM exchanged)? Now there is $1.5MM exchanged or just 1% of that amount despite a double digit rise!!! This is a combination of the brutal take down (-75%) by the "entity" and low free float left to play with (4MM or so).

  • Reply to


    by betasplen1 Aug 25, 2015 11:21 AM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 25, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    pmt, in your case, it makes sense to add aggressively to get your cost average down to break even with your scenario 2 ($8-10 offer). I will add only if your prediction of 80-90 cents comes true. For the record, I won't bet against it if I see the 3 year, 1 year, 1 month, or 1 week chart..

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 25, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    Rup, that is the best post from you in quite a while. Unfortunately, I have to agree with your sarcastic response. #$%$ Seth...

  • betasplen1 by betasplen1 Aug 25, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    Got only 9K shares below one dolla' foot long. I have reprimanded myself to only buy below my last purchase price going forward. If it doesn't go to 90 cents, I told myself to just sit tight and stop putting more money in. At this point, I don't know if it makes much difference if my cost basis is brought down another quarter. For others, it could be a dollar (or more) reduction and so could be worth the risk. Perhaps better to conserve some cash so that I can stay underwater longer till rescue comes. I am hoping there will be some kind of resolution by 2017 (profitable company @ $20-30 or bought out for much less).

  • Reply to

    never come @ dollarsssss

    by shabbir3825 Aug 24, 2015 11:59 PM
    betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 25, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    Make up your mind Shabbir. Pumper or basher? Your crystal ball is broken. Schizo alert. Welcome back to ignore bin again. Click....

  • 18 down or flat days
    5 up days
    Total move: -50%
    News for drop:
    1) Earnings beat by 20%
    2)CEO forecast profitability in 2016
    3)CVOT cost expected to drop significantly if one is needed at all
    4)CEO confident to defend Q's patent
    5)All 5 analysts upgraded stock and increased earnings estimates
    6)Net institutional holdings increased
    7)Insiders awarded themselves some restricted shares @ $1.23
    8)Short positions decreased
    9)Crazy out-of-money call option last Thu and significant out-of-money puts sold a few weeks earlier

    Verdict: VVUS is not a Viagra slayer yet but definitely a shareholder slayer no matter the news...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 24, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    And have $170MM left over!! But that will be shareholder friendly, no? Goes against the instructions given to Sloth Seth.

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 24, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    You're right. 5,470,799 - 5,191,599 = 279,200 shares. I didn't bother looking closely as I thought it was about the same. A 5% increase in position is significant. Hope, he buys the rest of the free float and removes liquidity for these short buggers till the good news is disseminated...

  • betasplen1 betasplen1 Aug 24, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    To tell us that he is still holding through all this carnage. If I am not mistaken, he bought in the $2.30s, better than me, but is down $7MM. I think the dutch man knows that something good is coming down the pike (you don't randomly buy 5% of a microcap in a different country) but is probably peeved he jumped in a little early. He could really help to keep this above a buck if he decided to double down this week..

117.63-0.03(-0.03%)Aug 28 4:00 PMEDT